Volkswagen's estimate on time till electrics have a significant impact consistent with my own. -

[JohnWxy]

It's kindof amazing how much attention this VW estimate keeps getting .

Their estimate is consistent with mine from last year. I said it would take about 25 to 30 years before electrics would make a significant (say 30% to 40% reduction) impact on fossil fuel consumption. at the link is an explanation of the spreadsheet which performs the calculations.

The user can enter different assumptions from what i enterred. I used 100 mpg to start rising to 433 mpg for the Volt and comparing it to a Toyota Corolla starting at 30 mpg rising to 39 mpg. You move around the spreadsheet (to the various user input cells) by using the tab key or the cursor. Thus, you can enter different assumptions for starting volume, annual sales growth, mpg and fraction of total fuel consumed to be saved (entered as a decimal fraction). I currently have a starting point of 1,000,000 units and a 10% annual sales growth (or 100,000 cars sold the first year, and growing at 10% per yr after that). If you enter 20% annual sales growth (200,000 cars sold the first year) it still takes 20 years to get to 40% reduction of gasoline usage.


Timeline for Volt/Plug-in Hybrid adoption - explains how to use the spreadsheet

Direct link to Spreadsheet computing time required to save a given fraction of total gasoline consumption


One assumption I made in this spreadsheet is wrong. I was working with the assumption that the electrics could become ALL the cars sold. This is not really realistic. Half the vehicles sold in the U.S. are light trucks (and some heavier trucks). Electrics like the Volt will not for quite some time be used in heavy applications. MEdium to heavy hauling vehicles will not become hybrids for some time. Lighter duty trucks can become hybrids but as to fuel savings they may not be as much as for the typical auto (although I'd say 90% of the pick-ups I see have nothing much in the bed - so they could achieve efficiency gains comparable to a full-size car's). So I really should not have been assuming ALL the vehicles COULD become hybrids getting 100 to 435 mpg(at the end of the adoption period). This means time periods for greater reduction of fossil fuel consumption (say beyond 50%) are going to stretch out and it will take more time to achieve reductions of greater than 50% than we might be anticipating.

I'm working on another spreadsheet that takes into account the fact that the ceiling for hybrid sales is less than the total number of vehicles sold and the figures are even less optimistic in terms of how long it will take to get to say 30% or more reduction of gasoline usage. Of course the results vary considerably based on what you assume for future gains in efficiency and guessing how much people will pay and how the price will improve for electrics. these parameters introduce significant variation in your results. That's why I'm not comfortable releasing the results of that analysis yet. But I do think the numbers from the spreadsheet mentioned above may be optimistic.

[madrchsod]

1. all electric motors will never replace fuel based engines for transportation

there is`t enough lithium to power a significant number of all electric cars. electric motors and a fuel based engine is the most practical system for transportation.

[JohnWxy]

2. well, when i said electrics I was talking about plug-in hybrids.

[madrchsod]

3. opps....

i have to stop doing three things at once:rofl:

[kristopher]

5. Your assertion of a lithium constraint isn't correct.

ABSTRACT

In 1976 a National Research Council Panel estimated that Western World lithium reserves and
resources totaled 10.6 million tonnes as elemental lithium.

Subsequent discoveries, particularly in brines in the southern Andes and the plateaus of western
China and Tibet have increased the tonnages significantly. Geothermal brines and lithium
bearing clays add to the total.

This current estimate totals 28.4 million tonnes Li equivalent to more than 150.0 million tonnes
of lithium carbonate of which nearly 14.0 million tonnes lithium (about 74.0 million tonnes of
carbonate) are at active or proposed operations.

This can be compared with current demand for lithium chemicals which approximates to 84,000
tonnes as lithium carbonate equivalents (16,000 tonnes Li).

Concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable
applications are unfounded.

From:
AN ABUNDANCE OF LITHIUM
by R. Keith Evans, March 2008

[kristopher]

4. Electric Policy Research Institute - PHEV Primer

Technology Primer: The Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

The Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), like current hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) available on
the market today, operates on battery power for a clean, quiet ride, and on liquid fuel for unlimited
driving range. In both vehicles, the battery charges when its internal combustion engine (ICE) is
running and when the driver uses the brakes. When the battery depletes its charge to a preset
minimum energy level, the vehicle automatically switches to ICE mode. A key distinction between the
two is that the PHEV gains its primary energy directly from the electricity grid while the HEV derives
its propulsion energy from gasoline.

More than 40% of U.S. generating capacity operates at reduced load overnight, and it is during
these off-peak hours that most PHEVs would be recharged. Recent studies show that if PHEVs
displaced half of all vehicles on the road by year 2050, they would require only an 8% increase in
electricity generation (4% increase in capacity).

At Issue: Cost of Advanced Batteries
The performance and practicality of a PHEV depends on the weight of the battery in relation to
the amount of energy it can store and the power it can produce: the lighter and more compact the
battery, the more efficient and practical the vehicle; the more energy the battery stores, the longer
the vehicle’s driving range.

Today’s advanced batteries, principally the nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and the lithium ion (Li-Ion),
have demonstrated the high energy storage, power delivery, and longevity characteristics needed to
make PHEVs competitive with conventional vehicles in performance. The biggest barrier to their use
is cost.

Technology Primer: The Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Both NiMH and Li-Ion are expensive to produce. However, just as the cost of the small NiMH and
Li-Ion batteries used in consumer electronic devices has dropped dramatically, the cost of PHEV
batteries is expected to drop as they go into mass production and as worldwide competition for that
market develops.

PHEV Development Status
The development of PHEV technology has gained momentum within the past few years along with
growing concerns for the price of gasoline, global climate change, national security and electric
load management at electric companies.

Automakers recognize a consumer market eager to reduce transportation fuel costs. With the
national average cost of electricity at 8.5¢ per kilowatt-hour, a PHEV runs on an equivalent
of roughly 75¢/gallon of gasoline; this compares favorably with an average national cost of
gasoline of $3/gallon.

Policy-makers have embraced the PHEV as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and
to improve air quality. The PHEV has, in fact, become a key to the nation’s flexible fuel option
strategy.

The federal government supports PHEV technology as a national security imperative that
would lessen our nation’s reliance on petroleum imports.

A PHEV can be a vehicle of any size; however, the earliest market targets are fleet vehicles—
delivery vans, shuttle buses, and maintenance vehicles. For many local service and government
organizations, fleet vehicles can run cleanly and quietly on city streets during the day and plug in at
night. Vehicles with short routes may never need to visit a gas station.

A PHEV sedan can be charged through a 120-V outlet in three to four hours, and a commercial
delivery van charges in about four to five hours on a 240-V connection typically found in
commercial garages. The PHEV will have an onboard charger that plugs into an electric outlet, or
it can be plugged into a charger installed in a service garage. In the future, automakers may offer
docking stations: when the vehicle arrives at a workplace parking lot or in a home garage, it rides
onto docking platform and charges automatically, without a plug.

Major auto manufacturers—General Motors, DaimlerChrysler, Ford, and Toyota, among others—are
testing a variety of prototype PHEVs. EPRI expects PHEVs to be available for commercial van
application by 2008 and in the mass consumer market by 2010.

Electric Power Research Institute
3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94304-1338 • PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, CA 94303-0813 • USA
800.313.3774 • 650.855.2121 • [e-mail] • www.epri.com

[excess_3]

6. the goal is to replace gasoline(liquid) with any solid fuel

wood, biomass, coal, uranium,
OK with me, as it cuts the middle east dictators
out of the deal

[wtmusic]

7. Is the price of gasoline taken into account in your SS?

Sorry, I don't see it anywhere.

[JohnWxy]

8. No, I didn't try to forecast that. I was just looking at the size of the task to save

gasoline consumed using plug-ins. We need to develop plug-ins as rapidly as possible but I don't think people realize just how long it takes to replace the tens of millions of cars that it would take to signiificantly reduce gas consumption.

sorry for slow response - been sortof distracted by the economic developments lately and Obama's efforts to repair the economy.

[wtmusic]

9. No problem

I agree that it will be a slower shift than many would like, especially with the state of the economy.

The oil industry is effectively able to curtail interest by lowering the price of gas, which isn't helping.