New report predicts 32.7M electric cars by 2015

[wtmusic]

ELECTRONICS.CA PUBLICATIONS, the electronics industry market research and knowledge network, announces the availability of a new report entitled "Worldwide Nanotechnology Electric Vehicle Market Shares Strategies, and Forecasts".

Electric vehicles represent a quantum shift in transportation. The design trajectories are varied; the opportunities are significant as a quantum shift occurs in what the vehicle basic functions are and how the vehicle works. The car companies that leverage the market opportunity to shift to a new paradyne are likely to succeed. There are others who merely try to migrate existing styles and designs to electric vehicles. Buggy whips come to mind.

Markets for electric vehicles at 685 units in 2008 are anticipated to reach 32.7 million autos shipped by 2015, growing in response to demand for a renewable energy powered vehicle that lowers the total cost of ownership by a significant amount. Lithium-ion batteries used in cell phones and PCs, and in cordless power tools are proving the technology to power electric vehicles.

http://www.nanovip.com/node/54589

[sellitman]

1. How about some protectionism?

How about saying all electric cars allowed on the road have to be produced in this country with say 65% American parts.


Lets really put America back to work.

[wtmusic]

3. If we subsidized the industry it wouldn't be necessary

There's no reason why we couldn't be a world leader in electric vehicles, but we're going to have to move fast - a lot of catching up to do.

[CJCRANE]

2. Once the current economy

hits rock bottom this is where the new growth will come from (renewable technologies).

People who say the POTUS doesn't affect the economy obviously didn't invest in Halliburton and Big Oil at the beginning of the Bush administration (and subsequently cash out when the new paradigm came along).

If I had cash on hand this is where I'd invest.

[ORDagnabbit]

4. hmmm wonder how their gonna deal with the toxic used batteries?

[wtmusic]

5. 95% of battery materials are recycled nt

[ORDagnabbit]

6. thats pretty cool...got link for me to read about it?

[wtmusic]

7. Here ya go

"Q. Can we recycle lead-acid batteries?

Yes. More than 98 percent of all spent lead-acid batteries are recycled, based on Battery Council International statistics. This tops the recycling efforts of any other product, including newspaper, aluminum or glass."

http://www.gopherresource.com/lead_faq.asp

Due to the relative scarcity of lithium and nickel, the percentages for those chemistries are likely higher

[ORDagnabbit]

8. sweet! thanks

[Nederland]

10. That's lead-acid batteries

As we all know, that's not what electric cars will use...

Got a link for the recycle rate of Lithium-Ion batteries?

[wtmusic]

16. Very few large-format Li-Ion batteries in use yet

and it's not economically viable to recycle cellphone batteries

"However, in today's market, it is prohibitively expensive to recycle spent Li-ion batteries to the degree the components can be used again in new battery production. This, coupled with mounting material supply concerns, could pose a substantial challenge to future industry growth if not addressed properly. Recycling lithium is in its infancy and is expected continue to reach economies of scale with the increase in production."

http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/market-insight-top.pag?Src=RSS&docid=156117354

Virtually all large-format NiMH batteries are recycled (and they're non-toxic anyway)

"Nickel metal hydride batteries are benign. They can be fully recycled," says Ron Cogan, editor of the Green Car Journal. Toyota and Honda say that they will recycle dead batteries and that disposal will pose no toxic hazards. Toyota puts a phone number on each battery, and they pay a $200 "bounty" for each battery to help ensure that it will be properly recycled."

http://www.hybridcars.com/faq.html

[NickB79]

9. That would be surprising, considering the new Great Depression we are entering

It would be nice if it panned out, and I would love to be proven wrong on this, but personally I think that number is wildly over-stated.

[GliderGuider]

11. There is this amazing sustainable transportation technology I heard about that's available right now

It's not resource intensive, is universally available, and has a very low ecological impact. There is virtually no ramp-up time required for its introduction to our society. Even better, it promotes community involvement and has significant health benefits. And it will be around as long as people walk the earth...

[Codeine]

12. Where do you suppose we're supposed to get enough electricity to power all those cars?

Since most of you are terrified of the big bogeyman nuclear power? Do you really think your silly little photovoltaic and wind toys can generate enough electricity to handle that demand?

[bananas]

13. "Stanford study, Part 1: Wind, solar baseload easily beat nuclear and they all crush “clean coal”"

"Stanford study, Part 1: Wind, solar baseload easily beat nuclear and they all crush “clean coal”"
http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal

[wtmusic]

17. Through safe, sustainable nuclear power.

:D

[IDemo]

19. The power is available now for millions of EV's

http://www.pnl.gov/news/release.asp?id=204

Mileage from megawatts: Study finds enough electric capacity to "fill up" plug-in vehicles across much of the nation

RICHLAND, Wash. – If all the cars and light trucks in the nation switched from oil to electrons, idle capacity in the existing electric power system could generate most of the electricity consumed by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. A new study for the Department of Energy finds that "off-peak" electricity production and transmission capacity could fuel 70% percent of the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, if they were plug-in hybrid electrics. (Note: an earlier version of this release referenced 84% capacity based on LDV fleet classification that excluded vans).

Researchers at DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory also evaluated the impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, on foreign oil imports, the environment, electric utilities and the consumer.

"This is the first review of what the impacts would be of very high market penetrations of PHEVs, said Eric Lightner, of DOE's Office of Electric Delivery and Energy Reliability. "It's important to have this baseline knowledge as consumers are looking for more efficient vehicles, automakers are evaluating the market for PHEVs and battery manufacturers are working to improve battery life and performance."

Current batteries for these cars can easily store the energy for driving the national average commute - about 33 miles round trip a day, so the study presumes that drivers would charge up overnight when demand for electricity is much lower.

[JohnWxy]

14. the only data I could find on total hybrids sold U.S. was for 2005. the number was 251,803

Here's the link: http://www.hybridcenter.org/hybrid-timeline.html

to get to 32.7 million in 10 yrs (including 2015 .. really 11 years) would require a 45% annual sales growth.


http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/Hybrid_sales.xls

with 32.8 million hybrids getting 100 mpg (rising to 433 mpg by 2015) that would reduce total gas consumptiion about 6.3% (9.2 million gallons of 146 million gallons) assuming 12,000 miles per year driven per car and comparing that to a car getting 30 mpg now rising to 39 mpg in 2015.

http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/voltz.xls (you have to enter the .45 for sales growth and 0.063 for fraction of total gallons saved (this will get you 32.8 million cars in 11 years). you have to put in 251,800 for intitial sales, too. Use the tab key to get around the spreadsheet.

actually on checking thet article at link said the 252 K sales was for 2006. to get to 32.7 million in 9 yrs would take more like 63% annual sales growth (so you'd have to enter .63 for sales growth in the spreadsheet).

[GliderGuider]

15. 350% per annum compound growth? During a depression when no one is buying cars?

They're smokin' the good stuff. I wants me some of that optimism weed.

Where is the customers' money going to come from, pray tell?

[JohnWxy]

18. Updated the spreadsheet for 2007 sales data. Fixed rate of sales growth to hit 32.7 M cars: 54.7 %

year over year. If you figured a slightly declining rate of sales growth (which is realistic as the sales numbers grow you would not keep up annual rates of increase as high as with earlier lower annual sales numbers) the beginning rate of increase for 2008 would have to be 64.4%.

OF course the actual data for 2008 shows sales went down for all types of cars and hybrids were down about 5% (276,611 as of the end of October). For simplicity I didn't include the likely sales figures for 2008 in the spreadsheet.

Notice that to hit 32.7 million hybrids on the roads at the end of 2015 almost ALL of the cars sold in 2015, 11 million units, would have to be hybrids. that would be pretty remarkable to do in 6 years, given the price of these cars (even with the prices coming down - which is built into the spreadsheet - note, this is not considering inflation).


http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/Hybrid_sales.xls