Solar Storm - Update (the saga continues)

[indigobusiness]

Sun still a bit bonkers.

original thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=11611#






Auroral Map
Solar X-Rays
Geomagnetic Field

Magnetometer
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
http://www.spaceweather.com/

[indigobusiness]

1. Northern Lights Should Be Spectacular Again Tonight

As far south as upper Texas.

[pansypoo53219]

2. taint nothing in

milwaukees almost clear sky, but will look one more time.

[indigobusiness]

5. Hang in there...

you should get a good show. If not, there's always Vegas.

[Old and In the Way]

3. Fantastic Show up here in Central Maine.

Cold, very clear night. Just let the dog out, whoa....simply amazing. I haven't really seen the AB in years....tonight was the best I've ever seen.....streaking from E-NE clear accross the sky.

[indigobusiness]

4. Lucky Man....Good for you. Maybe it will rev up

as the night goes on.

[Moderator]

6. Kick

:kick:

[indigobusiness]

14. Moddy? A request....

Could you remove the 4 dead images in the original post? They were working at first, but now don't. I don't even know if this is possible, but if it is, I'd appreciate it.

[indigobusiness]

16. kick

[indigobusiness]

22. .

[indigobusiness]

7. Coronal Mass Ejection Tracked to Saturn

Shock to the (Solar) System: Coronal Mass Ejection Tracked to Saturn
By Bill Christensen

5 November 2004



In a dramatic proof that solar coronal mass ejection (CME) events affect even the outermost portions of the Solar System, scientists have traced an interplanetary shock from the Sun to Earth to Jupiter to Saturn.

They report the discovery of a strong transient polar emission on Saturn, tentatively attributed to the passage of an interplanetary shock. The shock-triggered events were first seen here on Earth, where auroral storms were recorded. Next, auroral activity on Jupiter was seen to be strongly enhanced. Finally, the unusual polar emission on Saturn was noted. This sequence of events establishes that shocks retain their ability to trigger planetary auroral activity throughout the Solar System.

In their 1992 science fiction book Flare, Roger Zelazny and Thomas T. Thomas chronicle the effects of a huge solar flare as it wreaks havoc across the inhabited worlds and space stations of the solar system. The effects of this event on the orbiting EverRest Cryotorium were described as follows:

The EverRest Cryotorium orbited low over the Earth ... forgotten by a handful of individuals ... some who worked daily in the NASA Department of Decaying Orbital Artifacts - the "Trash Squad."
However, with the unaccustomed surge of electromagnetic noise that was echoing throughout the inner solar system, and with the ensuing panic as normmaly talkative human beings discovered that their multiplex communications system was effectively blanked out, no one happened to be looking at the sky.

Unappreciated by these people, for the past twenty minutes the ionosphere 500 kilometers uner the EverRest's keel had been absorbing huge blasts of intense radiation from the solar flare.

The air density at such a height above the Earth's surface is quite thin: ranging from two millionths down to five billionths of a gram per cubic meter... the molecular fragments remain at their current altitude because the collective collisions of their gas pressure, energized by the sun's radiation, propel them upwards against the pull of gravity... heat the gas and you increase its pressure. Without confining walls or a steel tank to contain it, the volume of gas expands.

...the continuous influx of high-energy radiation had trippled the ambient temperature of the lower ionosphere. The resulting swell in the volume of gas pushed upward, increasing the density of material in EverRest's immediate vicinity by about fifty times.

The effect was immediate.

The orbiting hull reacted as if it had hit a wall.
(Read more from Flare)

http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/technovel_shock_041105.html

[Dogmudgeon]

8. More CMEs: M8 and X2 flares

According to Spaceweather:

MORE EXPLOSIONS: Sunspot 696 has produced two more big explosions: an M8-flare at 1715 UT on Nov. 9th and an X2-flare at 0300 UT on Nov. 10th. At least one CME (movie) is heading for Earth as a result of the blasts. Stay tuned for more auroras!

Tonight's aurorae should be more intense than those of the past few nights. Maybe they'll be visible from where I am (Philadelphia; 42N).

--bkl

[Dogmudgeon]

9. How Solar Flares are rated

The Classification of X-ray Solar Flares or “Solar Flare Alphabet Soup”

(Background:
What’s a Solar Flare?
What’s a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)?)

This emerged as a brief topic of conversation in the previous thread. I wished for an X-100 flare that would light up the entire sky in aurorae; indigobusiness thought it would cause a disastrous compression of the atmosphere.

The way the flares are rated follows a system much like the Richter scale for earthquakes -- a logarithmic scale divided into A, B, C, M and X bands. X-Ray flux over specific intervals of time (five minutes, in this case) is being measured. The power is measured in watts per unit of area (square meters). Particles accelerated to become X-Rays strike the Magnetosphere and/or Ionosphere with the power indicated by the classification.

Here's an example chart for mid-July of 2000:



Peak-----(W/m^2) between 1 and 8 Angstroms
--B------I < 10^-6
--C-----10-6 < = I < 10^-5
--M-----10-5 < = I < 10^-4
--X------I > = 10^-4
(A much better formatted table can be found on the web page linked at the top of this message.)

An X0 flare would strike the Earth with a power of 10^-4 watts per square meter. An X10 strikes with 10^-3 W/m^2 and an X100 produces 10^-2 W/m^2. It's only 1/100th of a watt, but that's still a big strike. Multiply that square meter's 1/100 watt by the surface of the ionosphere it reaches, and it's a huge amount of energy.

Other indices measure similar "oomph" of protons, electrons, and other particles and fields.

Of course, the magnetic field of the Earth will deflect the particles issuing from all such flares to some degree. Below M0, the deflection is almost total; at M and X power, enough comes in to excite aurorae.

I'm not certain that the total power of a hypothetical X100 would be apocalyptic, but it would certainly be ruinous. A lot of the energy would be absorbed by electrical grids, probably blowing out most of the electricity-transmission capacity world-wide. Radio signals would certainly be disrupted, and the Internet would crash at points further than a single link from its "backbone" (the "backbone" or central stations are well-shielded, or so they say).

This is also a fertile field for people who are interested in "astrology" or its refutation (attention, Meeting Room denizens!) Tracking behavioral changes and correlating them with this electrical power index would produce a rich set of data that could be used to support, modify, or refute theories of cosmic influence. (Keep in mind that if a single person tracks their responses, that's too-small a group to draw any conclusions from.)

There's a solar storm on, so, tonight many people will have a chance to activate their esthetic wonder and awe neurocircuits by the simple act of looking up at the sky.

(As always, all errors are mine alone.)

--bkl
Veteran Cosmic Kahker

[indigobusiness]

10. Have a look at this. The disturbance of the magnetic field is awesome.

Look at that graphic! Then scroll down to see a list of flare data.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events

My thoughts on all this are of no real consequence here. My statement was a reference to the expressed opinions of some whose might be. The compression of the atmopshere from an X-50 CME, if direct enough, could be disasterous if not apocalyptic to the area exposed (depending on the magnetic field, and other atmospheric considerations, this could be somewhat mitigated or exacerbated). A direct hit from an X-100 would be almost certainly apocalyptic.



I will look for learned assertions along these lines, when I get a minute.


http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/wiotorp.html

[Dogmudgeon]

11. Quite cool

It also seems -- looking at the other graphs -- there was some kind of big event shortly after midnight Universal Time (7PM EST). A CME maybe?

By the way, I posted this as an FYI, and don't look at the "X100" thing as an argument. I had no idea how the ratings were made and looked around a little bit. So on second thought, I think I could do without the aurora that would be a result of a full-on X100!

There are also flare stars that have huge flares, on the order of millions of times more intense than the M- and X- class flares we are used to seeing. The Sun seems unusually stable for a star, even one in the redder end of the H-R spectrum. Is it possible that our own Sun could let fly a super-flare, the equivalent of an X-100k or X-1M?

Such a flare would obviously cause quite an aurora. It would probably excite every molecule of any gaseous element on the entire Earth to emit light. It would be quite hot before the last of the atmosphere was converted to photons and ions and escaped into space.

--bkl

[indigobusiness]

15. Thanks for the info. This image is stunningly beautiful.

[indigobusiness]

12. Biggest Solar X-Ray Flare on Record

At 21:51 UT, Monday 2 April 2001, active region 9393 unleashed a major solar flare. Now reclassified as at least an X20, it appears to be the biggest X-ray flare on record, most likely bigger than the one on 16 August 1989, also an X20 flare, and definitely more powerful that the famous 6 March 1989 flare which was related to the disruption of the power grids in Canada. The big explosion, which took place near the Sun's northwest limb, hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space - at a whopping speed of roughly 7.2 million km/h - but not directly towards Earth. The shock arrived at SOHO at 14:20 UT, as detected by the SOHO/CELIAS Proton Monitor, shown below:



Later the same week, an X5 flare occured in a new region (AR9415) which has rotated onto the disk as the old region disappeared behind the limb. The event was featured in another Hot Shot.

A proton event started only hours after the flare. These highly energetic particles may affect electronic equipment in space. This can be seen in e.g. movies from LASCO and EIT (links above). The apparent "snowstorms" are caused by energetic particles crashing into the detectors. The particle effects of this giant flare on EIT is, however, an order of magnitude smaller than those seen during the so-called Bastille Day event of 14 July 2000.



The active region where the flare occurred, AR9393, is the host of the gigantic sunspot group that drifted across the Solar disk last week. This was the largest sunspot group to occur in 10 years - with a total area 13 times the surface of the Earth at the largest. The active region produced several solar flares and coronal mass ejections during the last week. One of the coronal mass ejections produced a powerful geomagnetic storm that raged for more than 24 hours this weekend, dazzling sky watchers who saw aurora borealis as far south as Mexico.

Given that a comparatively modest flare resulted in such intense geomagnetic activity, we are perhaps lucky that this event didn't occur over the weekend, when the resulting CME would almost certainly have been aimed towards Earth. The CME associated with the X15 flare in March 1989 caused major power failures in Canada, and subsequent smaller events have disrupted communication and navigation satellites. Also, had the flare occured over the weekend we could have seen a major proton storm such as the one observed last July, when a number of SOHO's imaging instruments were temporarily blinded.


http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/X17/

[indigobusiness]

13. Most CMEs are not associated with flares.

Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Flares, and the Sun-Earth Connection

The above image shows two examples of a coronal mass ejection (CME). The black disk blocks out the bright light from the Sun, creating an artificial eclipse so that the dim light from the CME can be observed. (The disk blocks out light from a region that is 1.6 times the diameter of the Sun.) Each row shows the evolution of a CME with time. Coronal mass ejections expand away from the Sun at speeds as high as 2000 km per second. They carry up to ten billion tons (1016 grams) of plasma away from the Sun.

Coronal mass ejections were once thought to be initiated by solar flares. Although some are accompanied by flares, it is now known that most CMEs are not associated with flares. This has important implications for understanding and predicting the effects of solar activity on the Earth and in space. If a CME collides with the Earth, it can excite a geomagnetic storm. Large geomagnetic storms have, among other things, caused electrical power outages and damaged communications satellites. In space CMEs typically drive shock waves that produce energetic particles that can be damaging to both electronic equipment and astronauts that venture outside the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Solar flares, on the other hand, directly affect the ionosphere and radio communications at the Earth, and also release energetic particles into space. Therefore, to understand and predict "space weather" and the effect of solar activity on the Earth, an understanding of both CMEs and flares is required.

A recent coronal mass ejection and subsequent geomagnetic storm have been observed in unprecedented detail thanks to the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Program. No solar flare was observed in association with this CME. An AT&T communications satellite, Telstar 401, malfunctioned during the geomagnetic storm. The following Web site is devoted to the study of this event:

http://www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp/cloud_jan97/event.html
(The January 6-11, 1997, Coronal Mass Ejection Event)


more:
http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/cme.htm

Solar Flare Homepage
http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/index.htm

[indigobusiness]

17. Sun storm hits comet

Sun storm hits comet

Mark Peplow

Battered tail gives visual evidence of solar explosions.


The tail of comet Ikeya-Zhang took a beating from a solar explosion. © Gerald Rhemann / JPL / NASA

Eruptions of matter from the surface of the Sun can create chaos in a comet's tail, astronomers have found.

They have shown that three different coronal mass ejections in 2002 caused wobbles in the tail of comet Ikeya-Zhang. It is the first time the Sun's ejections have been shown to affect a comet in this way.

Astronomers Geraint Jones of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, and John Brandt, from the University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, used pictures taken by amateur astronomers at the time of the ejections to examine the tail. They publish their results online in Geophysical Research Letters1.

Jones and Brandt believe that by analysing distortions in the tails of other comets, they will be able to pinpoint exactly where short-lived solar eruptions are coming from, and how far their effects reach into space....cont'd

http://www.nature.com/news/2004/041206/full/041206-4.ht...

[Amigust]

18. Nice prominance in progress

[indigobusiness]

19. Biggest Sun Flare Ever Threatened Satellites

Biggest Sun Flare Ever Threatened Satellites

Dec. 15, 2004 —The most potent solar storms ever measured squeezed a buffer zone around the Earth, destroying the electronic circuitry of some satellites and sparking spectacular bursts of the Northern Lights, a study says.

The 10-day space tempest, in November 2003, was stirred by huge solar flares — mass ejections of highly energized particles blasted out from the sun — a few days earlier.

Astronomers writing in the journal Nature said the so-called Halloween Storm "compressed dramatically" the Van Allen belts, two magnetic belts which girdle the Earth and protect the planet from electron bombardment by trapping charged particles.

The most potent solar storms ever measured squeezed a buffer zone around the Earth, destroying the electronic circuitry of some satellites and sparking spectacular bursts of the Northern Lights, a study says. ...Cont'd


http://dsc.discovery.com/news/afp/20041213/sunstorm.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=228x1001

[indigobusiness]

20. Warning of repeat of historic climate catastrophe

snip

The most likely explanation is a huge solar oscillation which caused the Sun’s energy output to fall precipitously and then flare up. This had a devastating impact on Earth, the research suggests.

snip

In addition, ice cores from the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa contained oxygen isotopes bearing the signature of dramatically low atmospheric temperatures during the same critical period.

Scientists know that a historic global cooling called the Little Ice Age, which lasted from 1450 to 1850 AD, coincided with two periods of decreased solar activity. Professor Thompson believes the evidence from 5,000 years ago reflected a more catastrophic "blip" in the Sun’s energy output. He warned: "The climate system is remarkably sensitive to natural variability. It’s likely that it is equally sensitive to effects brought on by human activity, changes like increased greenhouse gases, altered land-use policies and fossil-fuel dependence.

"Any prudent person would agree that we don’t yet understand the complexities of the climate system and, since we don’t, we should be extremely cautious in how much we ‘tweak’ the system. The evidence is clear that a major climate change is under way."

http://news.scotsman.com/scitech.cfm?id=1433922004

[indigobusiness]

21. X2-class Solar Flare reported 00:40 GMT on January 1st

There is a possibility of auroras on 2nd January 2005.

http://spaceweather.com /

X-FLARE: The New Year began with a bang. A powerful X2-class solar flare erupted near sunspot 715 at 40 minutes past midnight GMT on January 1st. If the explosion hurled a CME toward Earth (we don't yet know that it did), the cloud would arrive on January 2nd and possibly spark auroras. Stay tuned for updates.

[fedsron2us]

23. Big Sunspot Developing

In less than 48 hours, sunspot 720 has blossomed from an almost invisible speck into a giant at least 5 times wider than Earth.

Chance of strong solar flares.

[Dogmudgeon]

24. And another one coming 'round the limb at 10S

It shows up in the last of the 1/12 frames. That's worth keeping an eye on, too.

--p!

[indigobusiness]

27. It has grown to Jupiter size

It is a monster!

[fedsron2us]

25. The solar fireworks have started

Two coronal mass ejections (movies: #1, #2) are heading toward Earth and they could spark strong auroras when they arrive on January 16th and 17th. These clouds were blasted into space by M8- and X2-class explosions above giant sunspot 720 on Jan. 15th.{/I}

[indigobusiness]

26. LOW LATITUDE Auroral Activity WATCH

LOW LATITUDE Auroral Activity WATCH


From the AuroraWatch mailing list:

LOW LATITUDE Auroral Activity WATCH - 16-18 January

<snip>

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA TO
UKRAIN TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA TO SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

SYNOPSIS...

A potentially significant coronal mass ejection has been observed
containing an Earthward-directed component. <snip> For North
American observers, the best opportunity will be on the evening of 16
January and possibly into 17 January.
<snip>

http://spacew.com/pipermail/aurorawatch/2005-January/000030.html


(thanks, bananas)

[indigobusiness]

28. Giant Sunspot Erupts

Fast-developing sunspot could match historic flares of Nov. '03






Stop Press Monday Jan 17 10am:
An X4.2 eruption by spot 10720 beginning just before
7am GMT was moderating by 10am. It seems that we
have again escaped a squarely Earth-directed CME.
-- BreakForNews report
http://www.breakfornews.com/articles/SolarTsunamiAlert.htm

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2957139

[indigobusiness]

29. Interesting photo and Spaceweather update

AURORA ALERT: If it's dark where you live, look outside. A strong geomagnetic storm is in progress after one (and possibly two) coronal mass ejections hit Earth's magnetic field this morning. Bright auroras have been sighted in Alaska and Canada.

Meanwhile, giant sunspot 720 has unleashed another big solar flare. The X3-class explosion peaked at 0950 GMT (4:50 am EST) on Jan. 17th and hurled a CME in our direction. The many speckles in this SOHO coronagraph image of the CME are caused by protons accelerated to light speed by the blast hitting SOHO's digital camera.

The incoming CME will hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 18th or 19th, possibly energizing another geomagnetic storm.

BIG SUNSPOT: Sunspot 720 is huge--about as wide as the planet Jupiter.


http://www.spaceweather.com/

[fedsron2us]

30. Amazing images

For once the word awesome truely applies

[Amigust]

31. X7 Flare

BANG! The strongest solar flare of the year, an X7-class explosion, erupted this morning at 0700 GMT (2 a.m. EST).

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Amigust]

32. X7 Flare Update

BIG BANG: Giant sunspot 720 erupted again today (Jan. 20th at 0700 GMT), unleashing a powerful X7-class solar flare. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space and sparked the strongest radiation storm since October 1989.

In this SOHO coronagraph image of today's event, the many speckles are caused by solar protons peppering the spacecraft's digital camera. These protons were accelerated to near-light speed by the X7-explosion. This is what we mean by "radiation storm."



Note: ISS astronauts are in no danger from the storm because they orbit Earth inside our planet's protective magnetic field. Plus, the station itself is well shielded.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[indigobusiness]

33. solar flare