This is a FIRST -- HURRICANE IVAN RE-INCARNATES

HEADS FOR TEXAS

Tropical Depression IVAN

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2300Z 26.9N 89.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 27.5N 91.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 93.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 95.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/222313W5.gif

[Catherine Vincent]

1. It just may reach Crawford!

<kidding>

[whistle]

2. Jeanne is doing something strange also...

...it seems to have shot acroos the Atlantic in a straight line to its origination point, then shot back. What is that all about?

[Lancer]

3. I've become a loyal fan of

FORECASTER AVILA

I think we all know what he's saying between the lines -- DAMN! this is one weird storm!

[Boomer]

9. Ack -- no we don't ALL know....

Could you fill in the blanks? I'm not familiar with Avila and have no idea what he's implying, but I'm curious.

[NNadir]

4. Maybe one of you meterologist types can explain how Ivan passed

over my house in New Jersey, flooding the Delaware and has now re-appeared in the Gulf on its way to Texas?

It goes right over my head.

[1monster]

5. It hit land in the Alabama and Florida Panhandle area, went up the

country cutting a swath was wind damage and flooding all the way up to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Then Ivan headed east and south losing power all along. Two days ago it swept across Florida again as a tropical low pressure area (some winds in the 20-25 mph range and rain). Out of Florida, the low pressure area that was once Ivan was once again in the Gulf of Mexico and has begun to regain power... It is weird, for sure, but I have been watching Ivan on satellite photos.

Why does a variation on Shari Lewis's song keep running through my head?

It's just the storm that never ends
And it goes on and on my friends..... }(

[dweller]

6. first maybe in recorded history

but Nature has been around (the block) a hell of a lot longer than meteorologists...

doesn't suprise me to see this. Wait til NEXT year.

peace
dp

[hatrack]

7. Unbelievable!!

I mean, unbe-fucking-lievable!! I thought this was a joke until I went to the NHC website.

This damned thing could take half a dozen silver bullets and a stake personally administered by Christopher Lee and STILL it wouldn't die!

Oh, and as of 10PM CDT, it's no longer tropical depression Ivan - it's now Tropical Storm Ivan.

Unbelievable!!

[brokensymmetry]

8. You don't suppose global warming -

and the resulting increased energy available - might, just possibly, have something to do with it?

No...no, I'm just being silly. Sorry.

[AngryAmish]

10. Rasputin was easier to kill

[phantom power]

11. Reminiscent of a book called "Mother of Storms", by John Barnes

Hurricanes spawn other hurricanes.

[hatrack]

12. 9/23 10:00 CDT Ivan 85 SE Port Arthur Max Sustained 60 Pressure 999 Mb

EDIT

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

EDIT

[alarimer]

13. Been through that

I have been on a NOAA research vessel the Oregon II for the last few days. We just went through that area on our way to Pascagoula. Seas were up to 15 feet. Had couple VERY rough nights. Not fun. I guess we will be in Florida next so will miss the worst of it.

[hatrack]

14. Anyone notice the current storm track?

It heads into Texas and then makes a U-turn in the direction of the Gulf.

We could see this thing come back for round three!

[smirkymonkey]

15. I really hope nobody gets hurt, but

I am beginning to believe in cosmic justice.