Polysilicon Plant Costs On the Rise

[phantom power]

From the "receding horizon" files:

Norwegian Renewable Energy Corp. said this week that the expected cost of its polysilicon plant in Moses Lake, Wash., has shot up nearly 20 percent from the $660 million previously expected.

The "mechanical completion" of the plant also will be delayed by approximately two months, with commercial production scheduled to begin at the end of this year, according to REC Silicon – a branch of REC -- and its contractor for the project, Fluor Corp. REC blamed the setbacks on tight market conditions that "have pushed the world's equipment vendor and fabrication show capacity to the limit" and delayed equipment deliveries.

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/polysilicon-plant-costs-on-the-rise-580.html

[Kolesar]

1. Need to invest in "the world's equipment vendor and fabrication show capacity"

and make some money now :)

[bananas]

2. "the shortage could flip into an oversupply as early as this year"

From the same article:
"Delays and cost overruns have been rampant as the solar industry scrambles to increase its production of solar-grade silicon during a worldwide shortage. Some analysts have projected that the shortage could flip into an oversupply as early as this year (see Perspectives: Too Much PV in 2008?)."

[hunter]

3. An oversupply???

That means it's more expensive than the market will support, right?

That's a bad thing, last I checked.

[bananas]

4. "we're marching toward a temporary oversupply first and then rapid growth afterwards"

From an earlier thread:

"All the companies playing in the solar PV industry -- from semiconductor to PV manufacturers and from materials to equipment suppliers -- are positioning themselves for the explosive growth phase, which starts in five to seven years, O'Rourke said. Thus, we're marching toward a temporary oversupply first and then rapid growth afterwards."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x123885

<snip>

The outlook from Wall Street

All the companies playing in the solar PV industry -- from semiconductor to PV manufacturers and from materials to equipment suppliers -- are positioning themselves for the explosive growth phase, which starts in five to seven years, O'Rourke said. Thus, we're marching toward a temporary oversupply first and then rapid growth afterwards.

The PV industry's initial growth phase (2003-2008) has seen huge growth in financing activity, with many companies vying to go public with competing technologies, and stock performance in aggregate has been strong (see figure, below). But from 2009-2012 there could well be a period of shakeout and consolidation when all stocks will tumble, even the best-positioned ones, O'Rourke predicted. "Some companies will not exist when we come out the other side, and while we can identify some long-term winners today, some that will lead this industry down the road, are probably unknown today."

In the early throes of this shakeout (2008-2009) the corporate financing boom could drop sharply, but from 2009-2012 finance activity will rebound, partly from merger and acquisition activity, O'Rourke said. After that, grid parity will be achieved, and the industry will take off on its own economic merits, without the need for incentives. "When that happens, we will see an enormous build-out of capacity, even greater corporate financing activity, and, with the departure of many weaker companies, stock profiles will improve. Eventually, perhaps beyond 2021, he estimated, we will witness the cyclical growth of a more mature industry.

<snip>

[NNadir]

5. Marching?

To explosive growth in 5 to 7 years?

You mean exponential?

Personally, I've been hearing a lot of shit from dumbass fundie anti-nukes that solar energy has been growing exponentially for brazillions of decades.

Not one day goes by in fact that we don't have another "world's largest" solar plant thread here at the E&E forum.

And what's the latest?

"Explosive growth in 5 to 7 years?"

I would ask our dumb ass fundies when they think climate change is going to start, but then I'd have to vomit with all their 2050 talk.

Solar electricity has never, after decades of "explosive growth" talk, produced a single exajoule of energy. It is, in fact, now, and always has been, a trivial form of energy:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/table1.html

I guess we have a real good idea of what "explosive" means to fundies.