World not running out of oil, say experts

[CGowen]

Doom-laden forecasts that world oil supplies are poised to fall off the edge of a cliff are wide of the mark, according to leading oil industry experts who gave warning that human factors, not geology, will drive the oil market.

A landmark study of more than 800 oilfields by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera) has concluded that rates of decline are only 4.5 per cent a year, almost half the rate previously believed, leading the consultancy to conclude that oil output will continue to rise over the next decade.

Peter Jackson, the report's author, said: “We will be able to grow supply to well over 100million barrels per day by 2017.” Current world oil output is in the region of 85million barrels a day.

The optimistic view of the world's oil resource was also given support by BP's chief economist, Peter Davies, who dismissed theories of “Peak Oil” as fallacious. Instead, he gave warning that world oil production would peak as demand weakened, because of political constraints, including taxation and government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Speaking to the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, Mr Davies said that peaks in world production had been wrongly predicted throughout history but he agreed that oil might peak within a generation “as a result of a peaking of demand rather than supply”.

...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3207311.ece

[shireen]

1. in which parallel universe?

Article didn't mention that.

just wondering ... :shrug:

[tom_paine]

2. Gotta love the cornucopians. Why stop at 100MBpD? Why not 200?

Or 300MBpD?

Oh, oh DEMAND is going to weaken, all by it's lonesome.

That's some funny shit they are peddling. Bet they are using those "special Saudi numbers" or perhaps the stolen oil from Iraq is leavening the totals.

Who knows? I just know that chances are, this is utter bullshit. Nothing to see here, move along.

[KansDem]

3. Are these some of the "experts" Exxon-Mobil offered $10,000 to refute global warming?

Exxon linked to climate change pay out

Think tank offers scientists $10,000 to criticize UN study confirming global warming and placing blame on humans.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
February 5 2007: 2:02 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A think tank partly funded by Exxon Mobil sent letters to scientists offering them up to $10,000 to critique findings in a major global warming study released Friday which found that global warming was real and likely caused by burning fossil fuels.

The American Enterprise Institute sent the letters to scientists offering them $10,000, plus travel and other expenses, to highlight the shortcomings in a report from the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group widely considered to be the authority on climate change science.

"The purpose of this project is to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the IPCC process, especially as it bears on potential policy responses to climate change," said the memo, which was sent to a professor at Texas A&M University.

"We are hoping to sponsor a paper...that thoughtfully explores the limitations of climate model outputs as they pertain to the development of climate policy..."

The letter was obtained by CNNMoney.com through ExxposeExxon, a coalition of environmental groups including the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club and the Union of Concerned Scientists.

--more--
CNN

[GliderGuider]

4. Love it, love it , love it!

I haven't had a really good chuckle this week. Thanks.

[hatrack]

5. Christ, CERA

Give me a break!

[profgoose]

6. and then comes this from the CEO of Shell (who heartily disagrees...)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x131077

which links to

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3548

[hatrack]

7. As you've probably noticed, I've been poaching from TOD quite a bit lately . . .

Hope you don't mind! :toast:

[IDemo]

8. Is CERA a part of this organization, or vice versa? ->

http://www.alaska.net/~clund/e_djublonskopf/Flatearthsociety.htm

[NickB79]

9. "Only" 4.5% per year?

At our current rate of 85 million barrels per day, that means that by the end of THIS YEAR we will lose 3.8 MILLION barrels alone.

That isn't falling off a fucking cliff? We are already on a razor-thin margin as it is; remove even one million barrels per day of production and oil prices skyrocket.