Peak Phosphorous

[phantom power]

More plots and other content thru the link. Applying Hubbert linearization to assessment of peak phosphorous.

As farmers and gardeners know, phosphorus is one of the three major nutrients required for plant growth: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). Fertilizers are labelled for the amount of N-P-K they contain (for example 10-10-10).

Most phosphorus is obtained from mining phosphate rock. Crude phosphate is now used in organic farming, whereas chemically treated forms such as superphosphate, triple superphosphate, or ammonium phosphates are used in non-organic farming.

(...)

It is sobering to note that phosphorus is often a limiting nutrient in natural ecosystems. That is, the supply of available phosphorus limits the size of the population possible in those ecosystems.

(...)

Fortunately, phosphorus - unlike oil - can be recycled. Responses to a phosphorus peak include re-creating a cycle of nutrients, for example, returning animal (including human) manure to cultivated soil as Asian people have done in the not-so-distant past <4>.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2882

[donsu]

1. kick

nt

[mainegreen]

2. Depressing n/t

[profgoose]

3. unfortunately, a very big deal...

peak this, peak that, and the US is going to struggle to maintain access to everything important.

[kestrel91316]

4. The oceans' "dead zones" have PLENTY of phosphorus for the taking.

Of course, it would be far easier to ensure that excess PO4 isn't put onto the land in the first place, for it to run off and pollute.

To solve any PO4 shortages, just look to what comes out of your own body every day, and that of every animal on the planet. Shortage of PO4, my a--. Hrmph.

[depakid]

5. Even with recycling- there's a major problem

Namely, what Georgescu-Roegen called "material entropy."

In other words- there can never be perfect recycling- eventually, the concentration of any material scatters beyond reclamation.

I think we all know the bottom line here- humans have well exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet- and it's only a matter of time before there's a "population crash."

[n2doc]

6. Interesting- thanks n/t