Latvia could go bankrupt within two years, said the Centre for Strategic Research, Russian business portal rus.db.lv writes.
Baltic States will be the first victims of the financial crisis among the countries with transitional economies. Even if the International Monetary Fund will be able to save the region, avoiding prolonged stagnation is still not possible.
Center for Strategic Research has prepared a review of «The impact of the crisis on developing countries and countries with transitional economies”, writes Infox.ru.
It includes Baltic countries among the states with negative payment balance and heavily dependent on foreign capital flows. The economy in the region grew at the expense of low level of debt accumulation by population. The authors of the report argue that the states have tied themselves to the U.S. economic cycle, allowing the rapid increase in private sector borrowing in foreign currency.
Distinct signs overheating economies of the Baltic republics emerged a year ago, according to the survey. Rating agency Fitch analyst Ed Parker explained that the agency has lowered ratings of Latvia three times, Lithuanian twice and Estonian once since August 2007.
«The outlooks for all three countries are negative», - he added.
«The negative outlook means the chance of reducing the rating over the next three to six months», - reminded the representative of the agency.
The entry to the European Union in 2004 led to a sharp increase in borrowing and as a result the companies have started to actively develop the mortgage, construction and retail spheres.
According to the survey, the loans of Latvian private sector make up 125 pct of GDP and loans of government 9 pct of GDP, amounting to USD 40 bln. The experts are waiting Latvian households to bankrupt massively in next two years.
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