Private sector shed 693,000 jobs in December

[notesdev]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private employers shed 693,000 jobs in December, up sharply from the revised 476,000 jobs lost in November and far more than economists estimated, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.

The median of estimates from 20 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report was for 473,000 private-sector jobs lost in December.

The report for December was the first month the data was issued using a new methodology, which ADP said was designed to more closely predict the outcome of the government's non-farm payrolls report.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-sector-shed-693000-rb-13989515.html

[notesdev]

1. Just for reference

This is about the 12th consecutive month of job losses... and the numbers are still rising.

[unlawflcombatnt]

6. Here's a link to a 1-page summary

from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/web/cpseea1.pdf

Notice that if you add the 80 million people in the "Not-in-Labor-Force" category, to the 10 million in the "Unemployed" category, you get 90 million.

90 million is the number of working age Americans who are not employed.

We certainly don't have any shortage of workers in this country. In fact, we have a labor surplus for as far as the eye can see.

[GliderGuider]

2. That's pushing 2.4 million jobs lost for the year.

I expect we'll see numbers over 1 million a month by the end of the first quarter of 2009.

How many jobs did Obama say he was going to create over the next couple of years?

[marketcrazy1]

4. exactly!!

the rate of job creation will not even come close to the rate of job loss!. even IF this "job creation scheme" works, it will take TIME!! no one can create 3 million jobs overnight, it will take many months and in the mean time MORE jobs will be lost!! the ultimate medium term goal will become reaching an acceptable level of unemployment, say 9 to 12 percent.... ( arbitrary choice ) things are going to get dicey!!!

[leveymg]

3. Service sector, small and medium size businesses took biggest hits

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/adp-sees-decemb.html

January 07, 2009
ADP Sees December Job Losses Off The Charts

This is a revised number with new methodology, but ADP's job loss number predictions for December are off the chart. ADP had previously been under expectations where Wall Street economists were 500,000 non-farm payroll losses. This new revised target from ADP is now showing that ADP expects to see a contraction in total jobs by a whopping 693,000 in December.

The breakdown is as follows:

* Small businesses -281,000
* Medium businesses -321,000
* Large businesses -91,000

OR BY SECTOR

* Goods-producing sector -220,000
* Service-providing sector -473,000

As ADP stated: Beginning this month, the ADP Report will incorporate methodological improvements intended to improve the correspondence between the nonfarm private employment estimates shown in the ADP Report and estimates published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Report.

Please be advised that ADP has still been very questionable on its estimates. It does offer some insight, but its numbers have fluctuated wildly in good times and in bad times when compared to the BLS data.

Jon C. Ogg
January 7, 2009

Even India's tech sector is slumping badly, as everybody recalibrates their data. Corporate fraud and overinflated earnings are a global problem. The rosy picture of economic recovery we all received during the Bush era seems to have been a Big Lie. The whole world now looks to be going down together.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN02ELLSNA20090107

Stock futures drop before ADP jobs data
Wed Jan 7, 2009 8:03am EST

By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures fell on Wednesday due to caution ahead of an economic report likely to show further deterioration in the labor market.

Investors also worried that the corporate profit outlook would stay bleak for a while even as Washington pushes for a plan to revive the world's largest economy.

The ADP National Employment Report is due at 8:15 a.m., two days before the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December.

Sentiment also took a knock on a revelation that India's Satyam Computer Services (SAY.N) (SATY.BO) falsely inflated earnings for years. The news sent India's main equity index SENSEX plunging 7 percent.

The fraud at the major business software and back-office services company could add to investor anxieties about the integrity of the markets

[Joanne98]

5. ADP shows 693,000 jobs lost in December

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:03 a.m. EST Jan. 7, 2009WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. private-sector firms shed 693,000 jobs in December, far worse than expected, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday.
The report paints "a shockingly weak picture of the labor market," said John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at RDQ Economics. The nation's labor market is on track for the largest quarterly decline since 1945, they said.
'Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the recession has now spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities.'

— Macroeconomic Advisers
The methodology for the ADP index has been revised with the aim of making it a better fit with pivotal government figures to be released on Friday.
Economists currently expect nonfarm payrolls to have fallen by 500,000 in December, although several economists updated their projections following the ADP release. See Economic Calendar.
"We await Friday with trepidation," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics. He said to expect that nonfarm payrolls contracted by about 700,000, which would be the biggest drop in 59 years.
The ADP report helped send U.S. stock markets lower on the open.
Private employment in the services sector fell by 473,000 last month, while employment in the goods-producing sectors fell by 220,000, ADP said.
Large firms cut 91,000 jobs, medium-sized firms shed 321,000 jobs and small firms reduced their payrolls by 281,000 jobs.
"Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the recession has now spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities," said economists for Macroeconomic Advisers in a press release. Read the report.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/adp-data-show-693000-private-sector/story.aspx?guid=%7b11A2598F-2D9D-48D2-A934-144BA5E1BB9C%7d&dist=msr_7&print=true&dist=printMidSection