Will someone in power say the D-word already???

[GliderGuider]

ISM Factory Index in U.S. Decreased to 26-Year Low

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in November at the fastest pace in 26 years, putting American factories at the forefront of a global industrial slump emanating from the lack of credit.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index dropped to 36.2, the lowest level since 1982, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported today. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Similar measures from China, the U.K., euro area, and Russia all dropped to record lows.

“This downturn in the global economy is probably more synchronized than we have ever seen,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at credit Suisse Holdings in New York. Policy makers should “open the flood gates” to additional action, he said.

The ISM index was projected to drop to 37, according to the median of 61 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 33.5 to 40.

I don't know about the global economy, but I'm getting pretty depressed...

[DemReadingDU]

1. Shouldn't there be a recession first?

I know that we know that we are already in a recession. Perhaps, when it is obvious that we know the economy is in a depression, that's when someone in power will say it's a recession.

:shrug:

[pnwmom]

2. That could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Especially if someone trustworthy said it.

[GliderGuider]

4. How do you tell the difference between a self-fulfilling prohecy and something that was inevitable?

Serious question.

[pnwmom]

5. That is a serious problem -- the situations often cannot be distinguished.

The more people fear that a Depression is coming, the more actions they will take that will increase the chance of it happening. (Everything from consumers not spending to banks not lending.)

That's why Obama and others are being careful not to make the situation worse by careless statements.

[GliderGuider]

7. Well, at least he'll be able to say, "Hey, it wasn't MY fault!"

The problem I have with people not naming it is that I suspect that this snark is actually a Boojum. Not naming it prevents us from addressing its true nature with effective, realistic, timely action.

But at least it will have been someone else's fault when it happens. That's always the most important thing...

[pnwmom]

15. Unfortunately, in this case naming it prematurely could turn it

into a bigger monster than it had to be.

[GliderGuider]

19. And not naming it until it's completely visiible

may mean we've waited until it's too late to do anything but try to pick up the pieces.

[pnwmom]

20. Obama is NOT waiting. He's addressing the problem with the solution

that all the top economists on both sides of the political spectrum agree is necessary -- another giant stimulus package. He's not putting his head in the sand. But he's also trying not to say or do anything to push the country into panic mode, which would only make things worse.

[raccoon]

3. Nobody in power will ever use that word, no matter what. nt

[Citizen Number 9]

17. Well,

No one wants to be the first one to use it, anyway.

[DemReadingDU]

6. NBER: U.S. recession began in December 2007

12/1/08 U.S. recession began in December 2007, NBER says

The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, a committee of economists at the private National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday. The economy reached a peak in December and has been declining since, according to the business cycle dating committee of the NBER. The committee does not judge a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product; rather, it looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales. Employment peaked in December.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-recession-began-December-2007/story.aspx?guid={7DCF90E4-D61A-4014-83CE-45E938CD632C}

[GliderGuider]

8. Well, it's a start...

[DemReadingDU]

9. It took a year to decide we're in a recession

As long as that took, they're hoping we'll be out of the recession and never get to be a depression.

[GliderGuider]

10. Recession/depression/collapse

The true nature of this economic collapse is going to stun the pundits into silence (well, it won’t but it should). We are hard up against the biophysical limits of the planet for this one. The cheap excess of resources that would allow us to prevent, soften or recover from it as we have in the past just isn’t there any more. I hate sounding apocalyptic, but this isn’t our grandpa’s depression. This time things really are different.

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Momentum.html

[DemReadingDU]

11. Really different, and not good as you say in your essay

and I have been following Ilargi and Stoneleigh over at http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/


Today I posted Stoneleigh's recent intros in the SMW thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3624845#3624899

[GliderGuider]

12. Yeah. S&I are the cat's pj's for sure.

They have been calling this spade a shovel for quite a while now.

[jpak]

13. DddooooooOOOOOMMM!!!!111

:rofl:

[GliderGuider]

14. Thanks for making my point so clearly.

There is a general unwillingness to look our situation directly in the eye and name it for what it is. That unwillingness (denial, self-deception or cognitive dissonance, take your pick) is keeping us from effectively addressing a host of major world problems, from the financial fiasco though the energy crisis to the ecological catastrophes of climate chaos and the death of the oceans.

The fact that these crises are all interrelated makes uncompromising realism about their nature, origins and potential outcome essential. Unfortunately, despite our formidable accomplishments in other areas, telling ourselves the truth appears to be something that we humans aren't terribly good at.

We're good at mockery and sarcasm, though. And that's always so helpful in a crisis.

[Citizen Number 9]

18. It's true,

We are very good at denial, but I'm not sure hanging a label on this is going to be of any help right now.

Particularly when dealing with economic issues; it might be very SCARY, and that's one thing that can hurt us even more.


(A tip of the hat to PNWMOM, above.)

[JohnWxy]

16. Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words (to coin a phrase) - link:

http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/Bush_Gramm_Catastrophe.htm