Housing decline to bottom out in mid-2007: NAHB

[NVMojo]

liars ...

Last Update: 7:16 PM ET Sep 13, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A downswing in home sales and building should bottom out sometime during the middle of 2007 before recovering in the latter part of 2008, a home-building industry economist said Wednesday.

In the meantime, said another economist, consumers shouldn't expect a "widespread" bust in home prices as some of the strength begins to dwindle from regional housing markets.

The National Association of Home Builders' David Seiders and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Richard Brown were among four economists testifying Wednesday before two Senate Banking subcommittees' hearing about the housing bubble and its implications for the U.S. economy.

All four -- including analysts from the National Association of Realtors and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight -- agreed housing activity is slowing. Economists added the slowdown poses some risks to the U.S. economy but that a drop-off in activity isn't nationwide.

Seiders said a "below-trend" performance for home sales and building is likely over the next two years.

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA440B877%2D9904%2D4F1B%2DBF6D%2D0787D142D116%7D&siteid=

Here's how these real estate and home builder associations lie ...

look at slide number 35 in the first presentation by the CEO of the National Realtors Association in August:

http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/pages/presentations_use?OpenDocument

[Webster Green]

1. They don't know that...

What are they, fortune tellers?

Fucking blowhards!

[skids]

11. Oh yes they do.

It's about the amount of time it will take them to switch gears to selling the houses to people from the countries that hold our debt.

[bullimiami]

2. guessing. like economists and weather forecasters.

when they turn out to be completely wrong they will just reanalyze in retrospect.

[april]

5. I hope Not I'm a agent in Ca

the market here is BAD ..they are telling us that home owners should expect at least 30% less than they think the home is worth . average days on the market ..if price correct is 90 to 180 days last year at this time maybe 45 days ...its bad>>>>

[april]

6. if you are a buyer wait 6 months ...

[fed-up]

10. Where in CA are you? here are some home sales from the SF Bay Area

Not all markets are heading into the toilet right now, In San Bruno, CA (12 miles south of San Francisco-bay area) houses are selling close to and even some higher than asking prices. Average days on the market is 27. I grew up in San Bruno, so for the fun of it I keep tabs on the market there.

Scroll down the page for data on individual houses sold, you can also check other cities in the Bay Area on that site
http://www.sanbrunohomevalues.com/home_values/list.php
SOLD HOMES
Average DOM Average Price/Sq.Ft. High Price Low Price
27 days on market $543 / ft2 $1,199,000 $579,000

Homes in my area (Chico, CA-northern CA) are selling close to asking (except those that unrealistically added 10-15 percent over last year's prices) and most are selling in under 60 days if priced fairly.

The only problem here is that there are about 4 times as many houses on the market as normal, so buyers have more to choose from. Number of sales is only down about 5% from normal.

Not all markets are equal, so please don't spread fear and gloom when it does NOT apply to all markets.



*Not to say that the shit won't hit the fan in all areas by next year......

[Purveyor]

3. What bullshit...we are on the cusp of a debacle that will make the

"savings and loan crisis" of the early '80's pale in comparison.

Few that owe the biggest of loans haven't a "teacup" worth of equity in their obligations. They sucked it all out to buy "his and her" SUV's and little Jimmy and Bab's Abercrombre wardrobe.

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. It's already a lot worse than they said it would be at this moment.

The housing market depends on the pyramid scheme "bigger fool" concept. It's hard to tell if they are at the last fool yet. The real estate people don't seem to think so, or at least don't want to admit it. I see a real problem of afford-ability now. I couldn't possibly afford to buy the house that I bought 20 years ago. I don't know how people do it these days.

[VegasWolf]

7. Hum, a guess by Realtors and home builders! No bias there! nt

[NVMojo]

8. you hit that nail on the head ...

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. Isn't this called "whistling in the graveyard"? n/t