ARG Poll just out echoes Zogby

[helleborient]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Dean is still gaining - Kerry has lost over half of his support from his peak of 28. Clark is right on Kerry's tail for second.

Dean's favorability rating is 69 (from a peak of 71) - Kerry's has dropped to 57 (from a peak of 69)

2 wks. ago in parentheses

Dean 45 (38)
Kerry 13 (17)
Clark 11 (7)
Lieberman 5 (5)
Gephardt 5 (5)
Edwards 3 (4)
Kucinich 2 (3)
Sharpton 1 (0)
Undecided 15 (21)

[Larkspur]

1. We're getting closer to the 50% mark in NH

Keep writing those letters and canvassing. I was in Manchester over the Nov. 15 weekend. Looks like my small part combied with others time helped.

I'll be canvassing in Manchester, NH on Dec 13. I'm psyched.

[CMT]

2. i'm beginning to wonder if Kerry will withdraw prior to NH

if this trend continues and he risks coming in third I wonder if he might withdraw to avoid what would be a political embarrassment. But I still think Kerry will come in second in NH.

[Larkspur]

5. Kerry is losing his home state -- Mass-- by 9 pts

That would be more of an embarrassment than losing NH.

Kerry will not back out before NH or the Feb 3 Super Tuesday primaries. If he blunders bad in them and continues to sink in Mass polls, that's when I suspect he'll pull out along with Lieberman.

[CMT]

3. p.s. look at the favorable ratings of the 15% undecided voters

Even among undecideds Dean is in good shape. His favorability rating with undecideds is 78% well above Kerry's 56% and Clark's 44%. It could indicate that Dean is not through gaining ground in NH.

[Jerseycoa]

4. I agree

As long as lightning doesn't strike, he sweeps it with a BIG broom.

[LuminousX]

6. Dean needs a good sweep

to be able get the DNC as a whole behind him. If we are going to beat Bush, we need every foot on the pavement and we will need that DNC machinery well-oiled and cranking faster than it has ever cranked in the past.

[NNadir]

7. They are obviously deluded. Kucinich is winning.

Kucinich is winning. He is sweeping the field. First he'll take Sharpton out, and then the rest had better watch out! His plan you see is to get all of Sharpton's support and use that to get all of Edwards support. When Gephardt drops out it will be obvious that all of his support will immediately go to Kucinich, since both are members of the House. Clark and Kerry will then look at Kucinich's surge and endorse Kucinich, and Dean jump on the bandwagon recognizing that he has no chance. Lieberman will stay in the race until the end and will be the VP nominee (again).

[killbotfactory]

8. He's peaking too soon

ahhhh.... that never gets old.

[neuvocat]

9. When is the primary again?

Thanks in advance.

[Freddie Stubbs]

10. Only about a month and a half away

[helleborient]

11. Iowa - Jan. 19 N.H. - Jan 27, I believe