"Path to Victory" Analysis: How Each Democrat Wins

[tsipple]

OK, here's my latest irregular installment of the Path to Victory: my thinking on how each Democratic candidate wins his or her party's nomination for President of the United States.

Comments most certainly welcome. And, of course, lots of things can change, since there are still more than 70 days until the Iowa Caucuses.

Here we go! First, the easy ones. Difficulty ratings are on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most difficult.

Sharpton, Braun, Kucinich: In February, 2004, a meteor strikes Dean, Clark, Lieberman, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, Senator Hillary Clinton, former Vice President Al Gore, the entire Clinton Cabinet (except Robert Reich), two thirds of the Democratic Congressmen and Senators, Gary Hart, Ambassador Joe Wilson, Walter Mondale, Michael Moore, Al Frankin, and most of the Boston Red Sox roster, sending the whole nomination process into turmoil. A contentious Democratic National Convention erupts in Boston. Braun is the odds-on favorite, but at the last minute Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich reach an agreement to flip a coin, with the winner getting the top of the ticket and the loser getting the VP slot, with the two candidates pooling their delegates. Sharpton uses a rigged coin, and the Sharpton-Kucinich ticket is nominated at the Convention on the 58th ballot. Difficulty rating: 6.

Dean: Just run at least close to current polling numbers. Strong second place in Iowa (or better), win in New Hampshire, and then win Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico, and possibly North Dakota. Beat Gephardt to take the nomination in Michigan, beat Edwards to take the nomination in Idaho, or beat Clark to take the nomination in Wisconsin or the bulk of the March 2nd states, particularly California. Difficulty rating: 1.5.

Gephardt: Win Iowa, even by one vote. Come in at least third in New Hampshire to keep the momentum going. Take Missouri, North Dakota, and possibly Delaware to stay in business. Beat Dean in Michigan with union troops, then slog it out in a fight to the finish. Difficulty rating: 3.

Kerry: Third in Iowa, first (by a whisker) in New Hampshire, then win Delaware and one other February 3rd state, like maybe New Mexico. Run respectably until Wisconsin, then win Wisconsin, Idaho (where he has a home), and several March 2nd states including California. Difficulty rating: 4.

Clark: Place fourth in Iowa ("upset" over Edwards, even with no campaign), third in New Hampshire (over Gephardt and Edwards), win South Carolina, and win two out of three of New Mexico, Arizona, and Oklahoma. Come in second in Michigan, skip Maine, win Tennessee and Virginia convincingly, skip DC, skip Idaho, win Utah, then win California and a couple other states on March 2nd. Slog it out to the finish. Difficulty rating: 3.5.

Edwards: Place third in Iowa (ahead of Clark and Kerry), third in New Hampshire (ahead of Clark and Gephardt), win South Carolina, second in, say, Oklahoma, then wait until February 10th. On February 10th win Tennessee and Virginia solidly, then have a showdown (probably with Dean) in Idaho on February 24th. Win that to damage Dean, then win Utah, and seal the deal on March 2nd with a California win. Difficulty rating: 4.

Lieberman: A meteor strikes Dean and Clark. Place second in New Hampshire (behind Kerry and ahead of Iowa winner Gephardt), win Arizona, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, stay second in Michigan and then Maine, win either Tennessee or Virginia (with second in the other), pick up another along the way (Idaho?) to March 2nd, then win either the bulk of states or California with a couple others. Difficulty rating: 5.

On edit #1: Corrected a couple small typos.
On edit #2: Note that "meteor" means either an actual meteor or the political equivalent.

[Padraig18]

1. Thanks! *sssssllllllaaaaaaapppppp!*

Now I need to change my shirt, since reading the 1st scenario made me laugh so hard the tea I was drinking came out my nose! :P

[tsipple]

3. I'm Sorry About That

I was trying to think of a colorful way to describe "improbable but not impossible." Sounds like I succeeded. :-)

[Catch22Dem]

2. Interesting

Did you come up with that yourself? Pretty good if you ask me. Not really a stretch at all. Mind if I steal it? :)

[tsipple]

4. Yup, That's 100% Original Work

For what it's worth. Steal away.

[jeter]

5. This is how I see it

I agree that Dean has the easiest road ahead.

Dean is the only candidate that can have the nomination locked up by South Carolina in mid Feb.

I call it the one, two, three knockout strategy.

First, he wins Iowa and knocks out Gepthardt.

Second, he wins New Hampshire and knocks out Kerry.

These two primaries (okay Iowa is a caucus) are within a week of each other. By this time Dean will have all the money, momentum and I bet you one million dollars the poll numbers will shift in his favor after he starts winning (just as McCains surged after he won New Hampshire in 2000).

Third, he wins South Carolina and knocks out Lieberman, Clark, and Edwards in one shot.

South Carolina will hardly be impossible. If Dean keeps getting African American support (Jesse Jackson, et al.) he will have an easy time winning the black vote in the state. Also, his comments about getting people with a confederate flag in their pick up truck and his opposition to gun control will help him among the whites.

At this point, Dean will probably be the only candidate with money in the bank. He will have all the momentum. I just see how he can lose if he does this.

Then he should leak that his short list for VP is Clark, Edwards and possibly Senator Landrieu. All southerners. Then watch the south rise up to do all they can to help Dean so their favorite son or daughter may get a spot on the ticket.

It will be over. No one will beat Dean in the west. The North East will be his as well. Every other candidate will be broke. Dean is the nominee by mid February.

[tsipple]

6. I Am Not Predicting a Dean Win in South Carolina

I don't think Dean will target the state. In my most likely scenario, I think Edwards or Clark wins South Carolina, and then Dean tries to knock out the South Carolina winner in the next round.

If Dean were to run the board and win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, it's all over right there (assuming he also wins all but Missouri to Gephardt -- he could also tolerate a loss somewhere else that day). I don't think that's likely, though. If it's Edwards it's over in Idaho on February 24th. If it's Clark it goes into March 2nd. (Again, my most likely scenario. That's the fun part, though: this stuff is rather unpredictable.)

No one has this thing locked up by any means. Every candidate in my scenario(s) has a lot of hard work ahead.

[tedoll78]

7. Dean seems to have the easiest road, doesn't he?

I think he'll win Iowa; he has new supporters who aren't being polled, and they're more likely to show-up. He'll win New Hampshire.

He's currently leading or tied for first in Arizona, New York, MIchigan, Maine, Oregon, etc. The ensuing wave of media praise after Iowa and New Hampshire will give him such a bump in state polls all across the nation such that his only competition will be Wes Clark.

If Clark wins South Carolina convincingly, all others drop-out in an attempt to form a stop-Dean coalition behind Clark. That's what I'm betting on.

From there on, flip a coin. I like either turnout.

[KittyWampus]

8. Really Good Tsipple!

Its seems very well thought out.. and kind of funny in parts :)

Now if I could just get a handle on how the caucuses work.... :dunce:

I would imagine that some candidates would hold on for the time when Dean doesn't do well in the South...

[Padraig18]

9. Bemused yet again kick