At this point, I think it's gonna come down to DEAN v. EDWARDS

[liberalpragmatist]

This is coming from a Kerry supporter -- this is no flame bit, and please don't treat it as such. This is just my view of how it is at the moment. Certainly, Kerry can rebound, and I highly doubt that even if he loses NH it'll be by the 40-17 margin that Zogby polled today -- it'll be closer. But I still can't deny that Dean is doing VERY WELL in NH.

Gephardt has a stronger chance -- he's polling far better against Dean than Kerry is in NH, and he has a good shot. At the same time, I still think that even if he wins, a Dean win in NH would undermine his candidacy. I don't see Clark competing too well -- he's started late, and while he could certainly rebound, he just isn't doing well enough in early primaries. Lieberman's practically dead in the water.

Edwards has a good lead in SC and he's solidifying it there -- it's still fluid, and Gephardt and Clark have decent shots there as well, but I have to say that if the trends that are working today are still in place in January/February, then Dean is going to win NH, probably win Iowa, and Edwards will win SC and some of the other primaries that day, solidifying himself as the anti-Dean. When it becomes an Edwards-Dean race, I think it'll be too close to call -- Edwards will get the institutional backing, the endorsements from the other candidates, and the party establishment, plus the centrists. Dean will get the activists, progressives, a huge band of motivated supporters -- it'll be a horserace to the finish on Super Tuesday.

What do you all think? I'm open to disagreements -- just NO FLAMES -- and I emphasize strongly that the race is VERY FLUID and in addition to those two, Gephardt, Clark, and Kerry all have good shots at the nomination if they can turn their campaigns around.

[La_Serpiente]

1. I am Dean supporter

And that's the feeling I am getting also.

Edwards will pull he south and midwest, no doubt. But will he get the west?

[nocreativename]

10. I'm all for Dean but

Edwards looks really good too. He is my second choice. I have a feeling that he will surge up past gep and kerry in the next month or so. I say this mainly, becuase he has his own style and voice. There others are trying to beat Dean down Edwards is just keep to is nice clean message.

I think there are many here in the west who feel the same.

[lastliberalintexas]

2. I'd be happy with that

I can very easily vote for Dean, Edwards, or Kerry. I have problems with some of their stands or votes, but overall I think they're great candidates. I can bring myself to vote for the others too, I just wouldn't be ecstatic about it.

Having said that, with the way things stand right now, I think it will be a 3 way race between Kerry, Dean and Clark. Unfortunately, I just haven't seen Edwards catch fire outside of SC. It is early though, so anything could happen!

[liberalpragmatist]

4. I don't think Dean/Kerry will be the ultimate battle...

one will be out by then. Kerry will be dead if he doesn't win NH, and it doesn't matter how close he comes. He can still pull it off - the polls have been wildly inconsistent -- 6 pts here, 10 pts there, 13 pts here, 23 pts there.

The bottom line is that if Kerry wins NH he's instantly the new front-runner -- a latter-day comeback kid. But he HAS TO WIN NH. If he doesn't, he's toast. Edwards is in a much better position to win SC, and if he can win Oklahoma and Delaware too, plus pull off strong showings elsewhere (a 3rd place in NH if Gephardt loses Iowa is very possible) he'll get the media attention and improve nationally and in other states. Plus, remember that the Democratic party, despite our current lamentable warfare between left and center is still a coalition between left and center -- the centrists are large in number and will probably prefer Edwards for the most part.

[LuminousX]

13. I disagree

Kerry won't be dead if he doesn't win New Hampshire, he'll just have a bigger obstacle. I think the true test for Kerry is the South Carolina/Arizona primary.

[paulk]

19. If Kerry can stay within single digits in N.H.

He can use the Clinton "comeback kid" line. He could spin a defeat into a victory and perhaps use it to defeat Dean in the south where Dean's anti-war rhetoric won't play as well.

If Kerry loses big in N.H. ... who knows? He could be hurt really badly.

[La_Serpiente]

5. I wouldn't say so yet

If Dean beats Gephardt in Iowa, that takes out Gephardt. Dean wins NH. HOwever, Edwards will probably win SC and the surrounding states. Clark could win Arkansas and Tenessee, Louisiana, surrounding states.

I don't know, but I have this feeling that the nominee will be picked by the convention.

[AWD]

3. Better yet...

....how about Dean AND Edwards???

It would be nice to have a Southerner for a VP candidate to pick up votes below the Mason-Dixon line.

Besides, Edwards has no race to go back to if he fails to win the nomination.....so why not?

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[w4rma]

22. If Edwards loses (and he's polling low) then he'll be forced to either

accept, turn down or be passed over (again) for the VP slot.

Btw, I like Edwards, also. Edwards and Clark would make fantastic Vice Presidents. :)

[RogueTrooper]

23. Irony

from the son of a millworker no less. Is it off with those peasants' heads.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sandnsea]

6. Depends on a couple of things

If Clark's campaign continues to stay sort of flat, Edwards has a great chance in the south and to take off from there. And if Kerry doesn't win NH, I suspicion most of his supporters will go to Edwards if Edwards is the southern frontrunner. So yeah, I can see it being Dean - Edwards next year. Unless Democrats wake up and realize we can't run an anti-war candidate, then it's anybody's guess what will happen.

[unfrigginreal]

7. No anti-war candidate is pulling more than 6% in any polls anywhere...

so I don't think you have to worry about that.

[sandnsea]

12. Wishful thinking

Dean is going to be labeled an anti-war candidate next year and go down in flames. I think too many Democrats aren't seriously considering the views of most people on U.S. security and terrorism. Just like they're not considering the views on most people on tax increases and that they'll reject a government run health care plan when it comes right down to it. Dean is just a disaster waiting to happen.

[FrenchieCat]

33. Thank you.....

With Dean as the nominee, that's 4 (count them, cause these first 3 were awfully long) more Bush years. So Sad!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Got some Lotto numbers for me?

[Redneck Socialist]

26. six percent?

That seems very low to me. What polls are you looking at? I don't have the polls at my finger tips but I am sure I have seen numbers far better that that.

[SahaleArm]

11. Reaching.

Edwards, who's been the the race for a while now, doesn't have traction in any state save SC. Even his SC lead is tenuous given the latest polls. The real race is Clark vs Edwards for 2nd or 3rd in NH and for 1st South Carolina. The result may be a winner take all.

[jeremiah fpoa]

8. Just a matter of time...

Edwards has played his campaign smart. He didn't do or say anything rash just to get attention early. He hasn't given up hope or shyed from the competition because of early polls and fundraising figures. He's just slowly climbing up the polls in order to infiltrate his message through the nation like it's supposed to be done: honestly and with sincerity. His number in NH will continue to climb as he takes voters from both Clark and Kerry and cuts in to Dean's lead. The same will happen in Iowa so that he will have some great performances in the coming primaries. Then, once he gets the national reputation he needs, he will be able to swing the party to his side, take the nomination, and actually beat George Bush.

[chimpymustgo]

9. Love your scenario, jeremiah!

Welcome to DU!

[jmw25]

16. Alright Jeremiah!

After I read your posting, I read the numbers of the latest NH poll...you were right! Edwards has moved into a tie for third and has eaten away at some of those Kerry and Clark votes. A second place finish in NH would set a great tone for the following primaries in states such as SC.

[leyton]

31. Yeah

Over the past few months, I have occasionally chatted with a couple people involved with the Edwards campaign (no, not any campaign chairs or anything, just a staffer or two) and I got the impression that his strategy was to peak at the right time. This sounds like what jeremiah said - slowly gaining ground and not worrying about galloping to the front.

However, the Edwards campaign sends an e-mail out to it's e-mail list every ten seconds reminding everyone that it's ahead in South Carolina....

Of course, this might be what Gephardt is trying to do too. I haven't paid attention to the poll numbers that closely or anything, but he does seem to be slowly gaining ground as well.

[DemDogs]

32. Showing a lead

I think the campaign is just trying to reassure people who want to know that Edwards can do. Everyone I know believes it when they see him, but they feel even better when they see that other people agree. The fact that he is coming up in Iowa and in New Hampshire, states he wasn'texpected to do well in, is great. And he is increasing his lead in the state he is supposed to win.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[paulk]

20. imagine that!

Putting a lawyer into an office the purpose of which is to sign or reject laws!

[DemDogs]

21. Edwards is from modest roots

Read his biography. <http://www.johnedwards2004.com/john_edwards.asp>
In contrast, your candidate IS a rich guy. There is nothing wrong with Park Avenue and the Hamptons, but if you don't like rich guys, you picked the wrong candidate.

[AP]

29. A lawyer who has helped injured people recover from corporations

and their insurance companies which won't pay for the damages caused by those companies' negligence are causing PROBLEMS?

I'd say the problems are being caused by the companies and by the wall st investment bankers they're trying to impress with high profit margins and by avoiding the expensese of acting socially responsible.

Oh, and, oops, which candidate has all those ties to Wall St, and who spent a lot of time kissing the asses of large corporations?

[jeremiah fpoa]

15. not that this really matters

But I wanted to print some Jack-o-lantern patterns Dean released so I could go lawn bowling but I wasn't lucky enough. Instead, his downloads don't work. Guess there won't be any scary kids running around with a touched up picture of Howard Dean tattooed to their face. A crying shame.

[jmw25]

17. scary...

they're only scary if the mask is Dean and his "smile"

[surfermaw]

24. Focus Group on CSPAN

Don't know if it was a rerun, but it was a Focus group for Penn.State, I think, when ask who they would like more information on, I got a suprise several said Edwards.
When ask?
What one thing about the last three presidents, (Reagan,Bush or Clinton )would they like GWB to have, almost every one of them said Clintons intelligence and ability to speak and communicate, several also mentioned Reagan and the same thing communication.

[Redneck Socialist]

25. Possible

I am surprised that clark is not polling better in NH. Independents can vote in the party primarys and I expected him to do well among the unaffiliated.

If Edwards can come in third he is still alive. If he can come in second he can claim it as a major upset victory and will gain alot of traction.

[DemDogs]

38. Looking even more like this week

Dean takes a shot at Edwards on health care (again), Edwards back at Dean on the confederate flag. Dean taking Edwards' economic message nearly word for word and then next week his college for everyone, I heard.
To me this means that Edwards is the one that Dean is afraid of.

[PassingFair]

27. Personally...

I'm strangely beginning to fantasize about a Dean/Edwards ticket. That would give you a WIN/PLACE bet!

[DrFunkenstein]

28. LastI Checked, Kerry Was Tied With Gephardt In Iowa

Even Dean people don't want to touch that Zogby poll, which is completely off the map from any other poll. Most polls show the New Hampshire race as pretty close, and common sense tells you that you don't run negative ads in blowouts. The general drift of the polls (all they're really good for) is that Kerry is slowly closing the gap on Dean. If Dean people want ot believe the Zogby, feel free to, but you'll be in for a nasty surprise.

As for Iowa, Gep is losing steam and the nature of the caucus system is disinclined towards Dean. The people who drop off from the other candidates will close ranks around him and strangle him off. Only so many toes you can step on before it gets back to you.

[Meshuga]

34. The new come from behind kid

Edwards has a great chance to pull a Bill Clinton, come from nowhere and win the nomination. All he needs is some more attention from the media. But how do you get attention from the media when you are running a clean campaign? The media likes the "other candidates are Bush-lite" type of stuff...

[DemDogs]

35. But the voters like someone who speaks to them

Which is why Edwards is connecting with them. With his recent increases in polls (leading in SC, third in NH and Iowa), the media will begin to recognize that he is for real.

[CordeliaB]

36. ...and he'll speak to more voters

Dean has an ambitious platform which may hurt him some in the long run. I think Edwards may have more of a chance to win it for the Democrats, although I admire Dean's idealism.

[DemDogs]

37. We have a number of idealistic voters

And the question is what are they projecting. It is how that idealism is projected that attracts the voters in the end.
What makes Edwards a strong candidate is that, although he and Gephardt have similar hard scrabble backgrounds, Edwards more than any other candidate sells hope and optimism. Gephardt is too angry. Dean, too. Kerry doesn't seem idealistic; he seems pragmatic. And I don't even consider Lieberman or Clark because both seem to be on ego-trips.

[DemDogs]

39. The campaign is becoming more and more clarified

And it is obvious that the choice will be between Edwards and Dean. Do you think they will ever have a one on one debate? And if so, what happens?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

41. Dean, Edwards or Clark.

Everyone else is biscuits and gravy.




































I think.

[genius]

42. Kucinich may surprise you. Edwards is a good candidate and

he's more liberal than Dean on all the important issues.

[DemDogs]

43. Interesting take by Chuck Todd on this

"Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., perhaps the most intriguing long-shot candidate after Gephardt. He has reasonable and -- some might argue artificially -- low expectations. ...

The media love to create candidates, and Edwards is ripe for re-creation. All he has to do is finish third in Iowa and the media show is launched. Imagine this: Dean beats Gephardt in Iowa, Edwards edges past Kerry for third, and suddenly, there's a real race for second place in New Hampshire. The media coverage in Iowa will give Edwards a shot, though the New Hampshire press will either get behind Clark or Lieberman.

It's a scenario that's more viable these days than, say, a two-loss Texas team somehow qualifying for a rematch with Oklahoma for the national title."

From National Journal

[Tom Rinaldo]

44. Here is why most likely it is Dean Vs Clark

First let's look at the whole field and at which candidates will start bleeding supporters soon under what circumstances.

Gephardt has to win in Iowa, if he loses there he is in a tail spin. Kerry has to win in NH, if he loses there (and in Iowa), he is in a tail spin. Dean has to win one of those states, or he will start deflating. Because Lieberman and Clark are not competing in Iowa, runner ups there are of little significance, except perhaps in Kerry's case where coming in less than third will weaken him further heading into NH.

Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman all claim to have strength outside of the "liberal" North East, particularly in the South, so they can potentially remain quite viable heading out of NH even without wins in either Iowa or New Hampshire. So can Gephardt perhaps if he comes very close in Iowa and comes in second or a strong third in NH. A big loss in Iowa or 4th or less in NH after a narrow loss in Iowa pretty much knocks him out. I suppose if Kerry comes in a close third in Iowa and a very close second in NH he still would have some chance left in a croweded field, but Clark and Edwards will do better in the South so I think Kerry would be out even in that scenario.

Third place in NH is shaping up to be very big. If Lieberman can't pull third in a neighboring state (NH), he is out. Most definately so if either Clark or Edwards comes in ahead of Lieberman in NH. If a southerner beats Lieberman in New England, there is every reason to believe he or they will continue to beat him as the race moves to the South.

There will be no more than 3 or 4 viable candidates after NH and perhaps no more than two. Only Dean has a near lock on remaining viable. Of the candidates who will "fall out of contention", I don't think Sharpton or Braun will drop out or lose their supporters that quickly. They are not really running to win, and everyone basically knows that. They are advancing political agendas, ensuring diversity in the national debates, and strengthening their own political clout and careers through enhanced visibility.

They will both at least head into the south where black Democrats are numerous and important. Sharpton supporters won't go to Braun or vice versa. They might however move on to a candidate who has a chance of winning. After South Carolina it is possible that Sharpton might try to play king maker and "throw" his support to someone. The most likely scenario under which that would occur is if either Clark or Edwards comes in 3rd in NH and 1st in S. Carolina, leaving them as viable alternatives to Dean. Sharpton doesn't seem warm and fuzzy about Dean although at some point he would back him to be on the winning side if necessary. Sharpton does seem to respect Clark, so if there is an early Sharpton endorsement for anyone as early as post SC, it most likely would be for Clark under the above scenario, otherwise Sharpton definately stays in, which I think is most likely, a la Jessie Clark.

I don't think Lieberman will come in third in NH. As a result I think his support goes mainly to Clark or Kerry, some to Gephardt, some to Edwards, depending on who is still in play asssuming either is. Kerry supporters are more likely to shift to Clark if Kerry falters, as he is another war vet with moderate to progressive views. I think many Kerry supporters are unhappy with Dean and would move quickly towards someone who had a chance of taking the nomination away from Dean. Clark supporters would splinter all over the map if he quickly fell out of contention, but I don't see that happening.

I think Kerry is in serious trouble in NH and is already losing supporters to Clark. I think Clark will finish 3rd, and just maybe second, in NH (if Kerry starts to implode). If Clark comes in 2nd, 3rd, or a close 4th, Clark remains viable because of his appeal outside New England, specific strength in S. Carolina, and his grass roots army of supporters. I think Edwards has to out poll Clark in NH to remain viable. He's been in the race a lot longer, been campaigning there for a long time and that should have given him an advantage. If it doesn't, Edwards is leaking heading into SC where Clark is already leading him. Clark can survive losing to Edwards in NH becasue he is newer to the race, but only if it is very close, and that would likely still hurt Clark.

I think Clark is best positioned to challange Dean after NH, partially because he will draw significant support from the followers of any candidate who falls out of the race, for the same reason why his supporters would splinter if Clark fell out. Clark has strength across the board. Even now Clark wins some converts from the Dean camp at the very same time as he wins some from someone like Lieberman. Clark actually is the Democratic Party's best unity candidate in my opinion. He hasn't alienated the supporters of any of the other candidates because he has been scrupulous about not attacking them. He might have trouble winning some of Dennis' votes I suppose.

Edwards could become the Dean alternative, but he would have to beat Clark first in NH and then in South Carolina in order to do so. Clark already pulled ahead of Edwards in one recent SC poll, even though Edwards has been at this a lot longer and has far greater recognition there. Clark is building support now as his campaign has gained its footing and as he starts working the key states. The "Clark is slipping" mantra is a tired biased media refrain, he is actually gaining in National and State polls now after the initial dip from the feverish fake highs of his first two weeks in the race. Clark is doing much better than Edwards at raising money also, which will count for a lot.