Political reporter: SC primary is "wide open"

[jumptheshadow]

On CNN's Capital Gang, Lee Bandy, a political writer in SC, said that John Edwards might be losing his momentum and the Democratic primary is "wide open." He pinpointed Mr. Gephardt as the candidate to watch in this primary. Gephardt is expected to pick up the endorsement of Rep. Jim Clyburn, who is very influential with black voters. Blacks account for half voters in the Democratic primary. However, Bandy expects white voters to be the swing factor in the primary.

Dean and Kerry are "low on the totem pole" in South Carolina, even though they may come into the state with win or place tallies in New Hampshire. Lieberman, who once eyed the state, doesn't have much of an infrastructure there. Edwards has the organization and has visited the state 18 times. "If he doesn't do well here he might as well pack it in," Bandy said.

No mention was made of Wesley Clark by the reporters.

If Gephardt wins Iowa and South Carolina, could his momentum build? Could he fly in under the radar?

I don't see him as the ultimate nominee but I thought I'd ask anyway.

[bluestateguy]

1. What?

No mention was made of Wesley Clark by the reporters.

With all those veterans in the state? Wesley Clark was not even mentioned? This guy may report on South Carolina politics, but instead he sounds more like a smug eastern reporter.

[jumptheshadow]

2. I was very surprised

Novak and the rest of the gang were asking Bandy about individual candidates. But they didn't inquire about Clark. I thought it was a gaping omission. I'd think that Clark would have a good shot in South Carolina. I'd be interested to know how much of an organization he has there.

[AP]

3. Read the tea leaves folks. Edwards is showing momentum

so CNN says he isn't. Clark is biggest threat to Bush, so they pretend he doesn't exist.

It's all lies and spin.

[DemDogs]

9. Edwards up more in each SC poll, Clark should have been discussed

Don't know what Bandy meant. They showed one poll where he had a 3 point lead, another more recent poll where he had a 9 point lead. Sounds like momentum to me, so I agree, AP.

Clark had 7, I think, in the later poll. Sorry, too quick to catch, but they certainly should have talked about him. Most military vote in SC is Republican, though, so maybe they don't think he will have an audience. Kerry is sure finding that out. Bandy did not have anything good to say about Kerry or Dean's chances in SC.

[Vikingking66]

4. wow, they're stupid

Greenburg's latest pole shows SC as:
Edwards 14
Gephardt 13
Clark 12
Undecided 12
Lieberman 11
Dean 10
Sharpton 10
Kerry 8
Braun 5
Kucinich1

-no offense, but Bandy's a moron. When you have Dean at 10%, it's stupid to say that he's low on the totem poll. If he rolls into SC with wins in IA, NH, or one of the two, I imagine he could very well grab enough of the undecided 12% to grab a win. A win there would be huge, stunning the media and the Beltway insiders, possibly leading to a clean sweep. On the other hand, even if he placed as he is now, that would be a strong display of strength in the South.
It's even more stupid to not mention Clark, who with 12% could take SC and that would be the story. Taking SC would position Clark well to sweep the South, and knock out Lieberman, Edwards, and severly stunt Gephardt, who needs the South to get a majority of the delegates in the convention.
Hell, if Gephardt, Edwards or Lieberman or Sharpton (shades of Jesse) can grab it, they will try and parlay it into a Southern tidalwave.

It's open to be true, but to focus all attention on Gephardt is far too limited.

[jumptheshadow]

6. I am going on memory now

One of the reporters said that he subscribed to Robert Novak's theory that the candidates who win or place in New Hampshire or Iowa will be the ultimate contenders for the nomination. The reporter then mentioned Kerry and Dean. Bandy said that Kerry had started out looking like he could make inroads in SC but that his candidacy had flagged there. *If I remember correctly* Bandy said that Dean had not paid much attention to South Carolina and that he and Kerry weren't "players" in the state.

For some reason, the reporters didn't seem to be taking Clark seriously.

I think it was mentioned that there is a large undecided vote in the state, at least among one of the primary voting blocs. You're right, that wouldn't gel with the poll you cite.

[AP]

8. They aren't stupid and they are taking Clark seriously.

That's why they are talking the way they're talking.

Do people really think that these shows are anything more than commercials for the RW??

[pruner]

10. what's the MOE on that poll

it seems like the top 4-5 are likely all within it.

[Vis Numar]

5. Clark is dead in the water in SC

You guys just don't understand how Fowler quitting hurt Clark in SC... yet.

[jumptheshadow]

7. Please explain

I'm interested.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. Edwards has SC in the bag.

Just an opinion.

[sandnsea]

12. I think so too

We agree on something!!!

[Padraig18]

13. It's his to lose, IMO. n/t

[CMT]

14. yes, I think that Gep is the dark horse for the nominee

If he wins Iowa and places well enough in NH (doesn't have to win against new england competition) and then takes the primary in SC he could very well have the momentum towards being the dem nominee.