Krugman not endorsing Dean's, Gephardt plans

[robbedvoter]

ttp://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/17/opinion/17KRUG.html

he Sweet Spot
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Published: October 17, 2003

E-mail: [e-mail]

snip


So if a Democratic candidate proposes a total rollback of the Bush tax
cuts, he'll be offering an easy target: administration spokespeople will
be able to provide reporters with carefully chosen examples of
middle-income families who would lose $1,500 or $2,000 a year from
tax-cut repeal. By leaving the child tax credits and the cutout in place
while proposing to repeal the rest, contenders will recapture most of
the revenue lost because of the tax cuts, while making the job of the
administration propagandists that much harder.

Purists will raise two objections. The first is that an incomplete
rollback of the Bush tax cuts won't be enough to restore long-run
solvency. In fact, even a full rollback wouldn't be enough. According to
my rough calculations, keeping the child credits and the cutout while
rolling back the rest would close only about half the fiscal gap. But it
would be a lot better than current policy.

The other objection is that the tricks used to sell the Bush tax cuts
have made an already messy tax system, full of special breaks for
particular classes of taxpayers, even messier. Shouldn't we favor a
reform that cleans it up?

In principle, the answer is yes. But an ambitious reform plan would be
demagogued and portrayed as a tax increase for the middle class. My
guess is that we should propose a selective rollback as the first step,
with broader reform to follow.

Will someone be able to find the political sweet spot, the combination
of fiscal responsibility and electoral smarts that brings the looting to
an end? The future of the nation depends on the answer.  

[papau]

1. Dean needs to clear this up - quickly - his "we don't need a middle

class tax cut" could cut him off at the knees unless he explains it as a tax cut beyond what they have now - and defines that as the new 10% bracket and the child deductions.

Get hit for "changing his mind " NOW - not later - Tell Dean we need to win the General Election!

[ModerateMiddle]

3. I caught a piece of the AARP forum last night

and someone in the audience asked a question about her 95 year old mother. In his response, Dean asserted that the 10% bracket (part of the DEM tax cut) probably didn't help her. No? that 5% cut from 15 to 10% was FOR the lowest income folks.

He's wrong on this position, and Krugman is right. People understand "repealing the tax cuts for those who make over $200,000 a year". They don't understand why Dean wants to raise THEIR taxes.

[Meshuga]

4. And that's going to hurt Dean...

againt Bush I'm affraid. Trying to sell that to voter next year is going to be tough for Dean.

[dsc]

28. No it actually isn't

and it is likely Dean was absolutely correct. The elderly get double excemptions which means if she makes around 15k she pays no taxes. 10% of 0 = 0 and 15% of 0 = 0. Last time I checked 0 is still 0.

[gully]

23. Who got a tax cut? Dean asserts what most educated folks know.

The middle class saw an increase in property tax and other expenses due to the so called tax cut that far out weigh the benefit.

What we got was a TAX SHAM.

[Rose Siding]

2. Not exactly

Cancelling insane tax cuts can make the candidate a target for repubs and dems using repub rhetoric. But the electoral smarts Krugman speaks of, is in trusting the people to know that when the paychecks bounce, not everyone can have a pony.

The Dean economic program consists of:

JOB CREATION: A short-term stimulus to create 1 million new jobs through a $100 billion Fund to Restore America that will help states and local governments create jobs in health, education, and homeland security, as well as build or restore schools, roads and other infrastructure.
FISCAL DISCIPLINE: Repeal all the president’s tax cuts, pay for new programs without increasing the deficit, and a pledge to balance the budget.
HELP FOR SMALL BUSINESS: A new Small Business Capital Corporation to expand the secondary market for small business loans and make capital for these job creators available more easily and at a lower cost.
TAX FAIRNESS: An aggressive effort to clean up the tax code, end corporate welfare, close tax loopholes, enhance enforcement against tax cheats and to shift the burden of taxation back toward corporations giving fairer treatment to individual taxpayers.
TAX SIMPLIFICATION: A commitment to tax simplification so that at least half of American taxpayers will no longer have to fill out forms.
A BETTER DEAL FOR WORKING FAMILIES: Addressing working families' anxieties about making ends meet with a higher minimum wage, universal health care, greater assistance with early education and care and college for their kids and a secure retirement.
snip>

“We’ll have to be honest with the American people that it’s going to take years and some sacrifice to dig out,” Dean said. “I pledge to the American people that a Dean administration in Washington will do what the Dean administration did in Vermont: we will balance the budget.”

http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=9899

[robbedvoter]

5. It all sounds very nice. Really. But I am not a small business, a

working family or looking for a job. I just pay a tax on my pension, savings interest. So Dean is telling me I should pay a bigger one?
I am not the only potential voter considering these things. Some may be hating W less than I do and worry about their immediate survival more than getting rid of W. This is what Krugman says.

[Rose Siding]

8. How are your health ins premiums?

Mine increased 350/mo in the last year. Dean's plan saves me 400/mo.

Were you hurting with the taxes you paid in 2000? No one will have to look far for the need and the benefits. It's still a basic repub V dem argument and any dem candidate will face it.

[robbedvoter]

10. I got no insurance, thanks for asking. Just Medicare.

Again, I am ABB. But others in my position may not be.

[democratreformed]

15. I see no statements...

in Dean's plans that say "free" health coverage for all. I think it is making a BIG assumption to state that this plan will save you 400/mo.

[Rose Siding]

24. No assumption. Here's the plan

(I didn't say "free". My premiums were at 350/mo before the hike)
snip>
The FCHIP program will be based on these principles:

The program will be open to (1) all children and young adults (up to age 25) with family incomes under 300% of the poverty level (e.g., $54,000 a year for a family of four); and (2) adults between ages 25 and 64 with incomes up to 185% of the poverty level. Everybody who is eligible must be guaranteed the right to participate in the state programs, as an entitlement.

As with SCHIP, participation by states will be optional, but federal payments will be generous enough so that states will not incur any additional costs, and as a result all states are expected to participate in the program.

As with SCHIP, the coverage offered by states must meet minimum federal standards, but states otherwise will have substantial flexibility in designing their programs. As with SCHIP, it is expected that 3/4ths of participants will be insured through private insurance plans meeting state requirements. Unlike with SCHIP, participants must not be currently uninsured to be eligible for FCHIP.


http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=policy_policy_health_healthcareforamerica

There's lots more at the site. With premiums not to exceed 7% of annual income, I would save as I said.

[no name no slogan]

31. But you'd save EVEN MORE

and so would your employer, under Kucinich's plan:

http://www.kucinich.us/issues/issue_universalhealth.htm

"We're already paying for universal healthcare, we're just not getting it."
--Dennis J. Kucinich

:D

[poskonig]

6. Krugman's advice is reactive, not active.

The Dean campaign is taking the battle to Bush. While I favor a graduated tax policy, I cannot ignore the value of making sharp distinctions on the tax cut.

If Bush brings this up, Dean will hammer him yet again, claiming that Bush is merely borrowing $1000 in your name and giving you $250 of it.

In sum, Krugman's political advice is too tentative for my taste.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. Bzzt. Wrong.

He supports it but rightfully points out that it will be demagogued to death by RNC talking points. He's speaking from a political POV not an economic one. -snip-

In fact, even a full rollback wouldn't be enough.

I say that it's about time that we stop letting the opposition's PR campaigns dictate our policy.

[robbedvoter]

9. Oh, I see. Krugman is a coward lilly livered media whore

or sumpthin...because he is not going your way.
I just remind you that after 9.11 Krugman was the only one in the media taking direct hits at W - when it was treason to do so. He took some personal hits for that.
Now, this guy who has been right on virtually everything has some strategy advice for the candidates. So, you are naturally going to trash him. Makes sense...




Please don't send identical letters attacking Krugman! He's had enough of that from freepers!

[poskonig]

11. argumentum ad verecundiam

Krugman isn't the issue here. Whether Democrats should draw sharp or nuanced distinctions on the tax cuts is.

[robbedvoter]

12. True. That's why I asked: why would a voter like me pick Dean

instead of bush (like me economically, but 100% ignorant on everything else - they do exist!)

[poskonig]

17. A:

As a younger voter I was making 35K a year under Clinton; now I'm lucky if I'm making $6.75 part time at a lousy department store or flipping burgers. Bush's tax cut is a gift to the investor class; it is not a genuine economic stimulus. In addition, while I'm "pulling myself up by the bootstraps" going back to school, money available for grants etc. are now being cut to, yet again, pay for the tax cuts. Local and state taxes are going through the roof, in addition to medical costs. Therefore Dean seems to understand my fiscal challenges a lot more than, let us say, Clark or Bush.

Now, if one believes plundering one group of people in order to enrich another is good economic policy, then Bush is the guy to vote for. If one would rather have an economic policy that promotes wealth for *everyone*, then Dean is the guy to vote for.

It is a matter of basic philosophy.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. You avoided the question.

robbedvoter didn't ask why you would pick Dean. (or some imaginary you: "at a lousy department store or flipping burgers" - do you really not know what job you hold?)

robbedvoter asked:

"I am not a small business, a working family or looking for a job. I just pay a tax on my pension, savings interest. So Dean is telling me I should pay a bigger one?
I am not the only potential voter considering these things. Some may be hating W less than I do and worry about their immediate survival more than getting rid of W. This is what Krugman says.
why would a voter like me pick Dean instead of bush (like me economically, but 100% ignorant on everything else - they do exist!)"

[poskonig]

22. A clear answer was given.

If investors want to saddle everyone with debt, put people out of work, help the Congress eliminate social security and medicare, just to get a tax cut, Bush is your guy.

[robbedvoter]

26. So, voters like me have to vote for Dean or be selfish jerks

Not very convincing argument. It was used by Nader a lot in 2000.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

27. You are ignoring political reality as well as the question.

[ModerateMiddle]

25. There are options

between the two extremes. That might account for why Dean doesn't garner 100% support everywhere, eh?

[dsc]

29. That tax cut you like so much

it cost me 16k I really hope it spends well. I made around 35k in 2000 and now make a bit less than 20k. And Bush's oh so wonderful tax cut is a large reason why. Maybe I can make an ad or two for Dean.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. Huh?

Who's trashing Krugman? He says clearly in all his columns that a full rollback of the tax cuts is not enough to balance the budget. I agree with him. I disagree with him that we should let the Pugs dictate our economic policies. Where's the trashing of Krugman? :shrug:


Do you think that we should only propose policies that can't be memed to death by the RW? Even the policy of a partial rollback will be assailed, so why not propose the right thing and not the politically convenient one. This giving in to "Rovian Fear" has been at the root of the Dems lack of success in national politics of late.






edit-boldface

[RevolutionStartsNow]

14. Um, RIF didn't attack Krugman

In fact he just clarified that Krugman's point was not that rolling back the entire tax cut was a bad idea, it was simply that the position would be attacked by the RW during the general election.

Krugman is one of the best. And he may very well be right.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. It would be crazy to allow political considerations to affect the campaign

We've got to do what Mondale did in '84.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. zing! nt

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. Awfully close to "ping." n/t

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[paulk]

30. Hello Dean people

This "Roll all the Bush taxes back" plan of Dean's in not defensable. It's flat out stupid and he's flat out wrong. He'd be far better off admitting it now and taking his lumps. Instead he's digging in his heels. And digging himself a hole.

If his fiscal policy is the same as a DINO's like Gephardt, why vote for him? His real colors are starting to show - he's a DINO DLC Democrat, and as more Democrats start paying attention to his real positions, his support will fade. The only thing he's got going for him is his anti-war stance - that and his self-proclaimed outsider status - something he hammered on at the AARP debate. Will it carry him through to the nomination? I don't think so. He's a conservative centrist - Christ, Joe Lieberman is more Liberal. At some point the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party" will realize it's getting it's leg pulled.

[unfrigginreal]

32. "Hello UnDean People"

According to Krugman's article, it's not just the Dean and Gephardt positions that will be demogogued:

"Even the policy of a partial rollback will be assailed"

So, the political cost will likely be the same whether the candidates pander or stand for what they believe. I'll stand with Dean.

[paulk]

34. so being all the way wrong is better than being half the way wrong?

Don't pick a single sentence out of an article and try to spin it.

It's nice that Dean believes in his plan. Do you? Do you think rolling back the tax cut completely is a good idea? Are you a fiscal conservative? Do you think Krugman's wrong and Dean's right?

Is it even remotely possible that the Great God Dean could be wrong?

[DrFunkenstein]

33. Krugman Calls For Kerry's Tax Plan

John Kerry believes that we should keep the middle class tax cuts that Democrats fought for in 2001 and 2003, which increased the child tax credit, reduced the marriage penalty and lowered tax rates. He strongly disagrees with Democrats who want to repeal these tax cuts, which would cost a typical middle-class family with two children an additional $2000.

John Kerry is committed to balancing the budget. He has put forward a sensible plan that will at least cut the deficit in half in his first term, while investing in economic growth and investing in workers.

Powerful special interest groups make it hard to cut special tax loopholes and pork barrel spending projects. John Kerry supports a Commission that would recommend cuts and require Congress to vote on all recommendations, so no single special interest could fight for pet projects. Under Kerry’s plan, the President would identify wasteful spending items in the budget and submit the list to Congress to vote on in an up-or-down fashion – saving billions of dollars.

http://www.johnkerry.com/news/releases/pr_2003_0828.html

[blm]

35. YES...progressive taxation IS a true Democratic principle.

.