The 2004 Utah gubernatorial election is looking exciting. Three term incumbent Mike Leavitt (R-UT) has not yet announced his intention to retire but Republicans are lining up make a run. Even Democrats are in the game. Scott Matheson Jr., dean the the University of Utah Law School and the son of the last Democratic Governor -- Scott Matheson (D-UT) from 1976 to 1984 -- has filed a campaign committee report.
Governor Leavitt is popular but he faced a challenge at the 2000 state Republican convention. A more conservative candidate forced him into a close primary race after a contentious convention.
In Utah, during even numbered years party delegates are elected from precinct caucuses in numbers proportional to their parties' strength in the precincts. Candidates are selected by vote of the delegates in party conventions. Only if no candidate can win 60% by the final ballot, the top two candidates face a primary election. Democrats hold up to two ballots to determine a victor and Republicans use Instant Runoff Voting.
Governor Leavitt knows that IRV will allow challengers from his right to consolidate support instead of fighting among themselves. And most Utah Republican delegates are to the right of Leavitt. So each additional candidate who enters the race makes it harder and harder for Leavitt to keep his party's nomination. In view of his delay to announce as new candidates appear it becomes less and less likely that Leavitt will run. If he does run, he has caused himself a lot of trouble by waiting to announce and not clearing the field.
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