New Iowa Poll

[BrewCrew]

Just released from WHO-TV station. Gephardt still strong, Dean now firmly in second, and its all sorts of crazy if and when H. Clinton is thrown in the mix. No clue why pollsters keep adding in HC, but it's always interesting to see.


http://www.whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1368526&nav=2HABH0dT


Des Moines, July 21, 2003 - If the Iowa Caucuses were held today, Richard Gephardt would win. But when Hillary Clinton is added to the mix, she beats Gephardt and all other declared democrats. That's according to our exclusive Survey Iowa 13 results. Survey participants were asked the following questions:

If the Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucuses were today, and you had to make a choice right now, who would you vote for?

Gephardt
32%

Dean
19%

Kerry
12%

Lieberman
10%

Edwards
7%

Other
12%

Undecided
7%




Now suppose that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were to enter the contest. Who would you vote for then?

Clinton
36%

Gephardt
19%

Dean
16%

Kerry
8%

Lieberman
6%

Edwards
3%

Other
8%

Undecided
5%


Results may not add to 100%, because percentages are rounded to whole numbers. Candidate names were not read in this order. Results ranked here for ease of comprehension.

This survey includes 601 registered democrats and 513 likely caucus goers. The margin of error is 4.4%. The survey was conducted between July 15-17.

[CMT]

1. excellent news for Dean--his support seems firm

First, it is great news becuz he is now in a solid second place showing in the state. Second, with Hillary in the race he loses only 3-points going from 19 to 16 percent while Gep loses 13-points going from 32% to 19%.

Of course Hillary is not running.

[kwolf68]

2. What a nightmare

I saw his town meeting in DuBuque, Iowa on CSPAN and Gephardt was a blithering windbag.

My wife even opined how he could use so many words that meant absolutely nothing. He isn't an option.

I hope its not either Dean or Dick.

[liberalhistorian]

3. "Blithering windbag", that's a great description of

Gephardt, who's usually all talk and no action and is a milquetoast on those few occasions when he is action and not just talk!

[kwolf68]

5. Yep

I have tried to listen to all Democratic candidates with an open mind...

When I saw the Gephardt fiasco in Iowa I wanted to toss my lunch. I couldn't even get through the entire program he was so bad.

The questions were also obviously pre-arranged (with audience members reading prepared questions for Gephardt). So with an idea of what you are going to be asked I would think Gephardt would have some awesome responses.

His responses were drab, meaningless platitudes. He is about as inspirational as an avocado pit and rests clearly on the bottom of the poop sheet.

[dsc]

12. The fact the audience was reading questions

doesn't mean that they were prepared in advance. Many times I have been to ones where they pass out writing utencils and cards for you to write the question down for submission that day. Then a certain number of questions are picked. Also if I were there I would have written down my question no matter what due to fear of nerves making me forget what I wanted to ask.

[BrewCrew]

6. i disagree

I respect your opinions, but I thought his Iowa Harkin forum was solid. Plus, I've heard the guy give some great House floor speeches on issues such as NAFTA, CHINA PNTR, Prohibition of Foreign Steeel Dumping, and the even Impeachment of President Clinton.

I guess each has their weaknesses and strengths? Maybe those issues ipacting me more because the issues (except Impeach) had more of an impact on those close to me.

I think we've got a decent field including Dick Gephardt.

[kwolf68]

7. Dude

I have nothing against Gephardt. On trade, NAFTA, declining manufacturing base, corporate exploitation overseas while American workers get dicked...I think he's a solid 2nd to Kucinich, but...

He just didn't get it done in Iowa. My wife is a moderate, basically non-voter. My benchmark is WHO WILL Inspire MY WIFE to vote. She's just like every other non-voting apathetic person who doesn't care or thinks it will make a difference.

She mentioned that Gephardt would drive her to continuing to not vote.

Even though she calls herself Republican, she really like Paul Wellstone. Not because she always agreed with Paul, but she could feel his passion, his drive, his issues were important and motivating.

Of course, Paul Wellstone was a once-in-million man, but we have to find a way to get people like my wife to vote. Screw trying to get the right-wing rednecks to vote...Just hold serve w/ the Democrats and INSPIREEEEEEEEEEEE a few non-voters and Bush will be gone in Jan 2005.

I don't think Dick can do it. Again, thanks for being cool about it and I respect your opinions as well.

[diplomats]

4. Yes, Gephardt is a major bore

why does he do so well in Iowa??

[JeniB]

17. The question is if he is a major bore, why is he doing so well?

I have seen him speak in person several times and he inspires me every time. Maybe watching on TV is the problem. In person he's very good. I went to something on Saturday and the questions were not prearranged and obviously some of them came from undecideds. I heard a guy change his mind right there. In one question he sounded like he was for Dean and half an hour later he told Gep he was convinced, he just didn't like that he voted for the war. Gep even gave a great response for that. I asked him some very hard questions the first time I met him and he answered very satisfactorily. Don't write him off yet.

[Rhiannon12866]

25. He's got my vote

Those of us on DU aren't typical voters. We tend to get behind someone with a strong message, preferably strongly anti-Bush*. The typical voter wants someone they can agree with, but nobody too shrill. I think the public could easily become comfortable with Gephardt. He's experienced, knowledgeable and, forgive me, not likely to scare anybody. Everyone here has their favorites and I'm no exception. But the most important thing is to defeat Bush*. I think Gephardt might just be the candidate who could appeal to enough voters to do that. This is the only thing that matters in election 2004. Well, this and actually counting the votes correctly this time.:shrug:

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. He must be doing something right

To have such a commanding lead in Iowa. Any idea why he is outpacing all of the other candidates in the Hawkeye State??

[CMT]

10. he is well known and from the midwest

and he won the state in '88 and has a good organization. Yet it looks like his support is soft since he loses 13-points if Hillary is part of the picture.

[tsipple]

9. Gephardt Has Some Iraq War Problems

I mean, it was one thing to vote for the Iraq War, which he did. It was another to give a big wet kiss on the cheek to George W. Bush in the Rose Garden while doing it.

[blm]

11. Here's the answer...it was 2000 Iowans, including 601 Democrats.

Meaning the majority were either Republicans or Independents voting for who THEY want as the Dem candidate.


>>>>>
This was a survey of 2,000 Iowa adults, which includes 601 registered democrats and 513 likely caucus goers. The margin of error is 4.4%. The survey was conducted between July 15-17.
>>>>>

[CMT]

20. According to this link it was based on 513 likely

democratic caucus goers.

link: http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[blm]

21. Why is there no consistent information?

Was it 2000 general population people or 513 caucus goers? When that's determined, then I'll take this more seriously. However ANY poll that includes Hillary Clinton is suspect because that's just subtle sabotage from the right.

[jos]

13. Unclear

Were the results based on likely caucus voters, that group combined with the registered Dems, or all surveyed. The article really should be more specific.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

14. Good and bad news for Dean

The bad news is he is much further behind Gephardt than in the last poll.

The good news is, he is 7 points ahead of Kerry, and that is what matters most. Dean does not have to win Iowa; he just needs to beat Kerry in Iowa.

I have reservations about this poll, though. In Iowa, don't you have to be a registered Dem to vote in the caucuses? If so, why compose almost 3/4 of the poll sample of people who are not registered Democrats?

[MercutioATC]

15. Isn't this the first poll putting Dean above Kerry, even considering

margin of error? (I'm not counting the Wisconsin straw poll).


This is actually great news for Dean. Not saying anything negative about other candidates, but this is a milestone. Congrats Gov. Dean!

[polpilot]

16. Dean is the nominee; Kerry's gone and....

Gephardt's 'local' and gunning for the VP slot. Won't happen.

Dean '04

[JeniB]

18. Why do you Dean people think that Gephardt would want to

be Vice President to Dean? Dean could definately use Geps experience, but it ain't gonna happen!!

[CMT]

19. whoever thought that LBJ would be VP for JFK?

or Bush for Reagan or Mondale for Carter? or Bentsen with Dukakis? I think if Dean were nominated and he asked Gep to be on the ticket (remember too Dean supported and campaigned for Gep in '88 and Joe Trippi was Gep's deputy campaign manager that year too)I think Gep might do it after all he is leaving congress and vice president isn't exactly an inconsequential office anymore.

[Nicholas_J]

22. When Kerry kicks off from Massachusetts next month

And the media starts heavy focus on Dean's actual opposition to liberal legislation in Vermont. We will then see what happens.

As Bush's attempts to get around the Iraq Act becomes more clear because of the intelligence investigations, Deans opposition to the act will make him look very inept.
Becasue without the act itself. There would be NO purpose to the intelligence investigation, because Bush wouold not have had to provide any intelligence to attack without the act itself.

Totally unnecessary for hin to do so, because constituionally the president is the sole person in the nation who has the power and constitutional right to wage war.

[CMT]

23. Dean must have been progressive enough to be elected

Governor of Vermont five times. It is a left of center state. As far as the press focusing on his record--I think his campaign would welcome it. He certainly hasn't run away from the record. In fact, I think the more people know that he left the state in good fiscal shape with a surplus while providing health insurance to most children and doing away with a regressive sales tax--the more people will like him.

As far as his opposition to the Iraqi Resolution, Dean's opposition, like that of Graham and Kucinich is looking better every day. Our country is bogged down in a country which is draining our treasury at the rate of a billion dollars a week while we have a projected $450 billion deficit (acutally will be higher than that). Our soldiers are being picked off by snipers at the rate of at least one per day and discontent is in the ranks. We have no plan to resolve this and no other allies appear to want to help us.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

24. Interesting angle

Iraq war = Bad. Democrats against the war = Good.

Now, before you take off on a rant here, I am not one who thinks Kerry's vote on the resolution makes him a warmonger or responsible for this war. But I also think that with this war turning out so badly, Dean's opposition to it will never look inept. That's just illogical.