Pennsylvania-The Congressional Lifesaver of 2004?

[mndemocrat_29]

Remember in 2000, when Democrats made considerable gains in the House in California? The election not only brought Hilda Solis to the House (winning in an easily Democratic seat), but also elected Mike Honda to a seat formerly held by a Republican. Additionally, GOP Reps. James Rogan, Steve Kuykendall, and Brian Bilbray all ran for reelection and lost their seats to Democrats Adam Schiff, Jane Harman, and Susan Davis.

Now fast forward four years. Redistricting in California has made a sweep in the largest state in the Union very difficult. However, Pennsylvania, considered to be the largest predominantly Democratic state after Caliornia and New York, is represented mainly by Repukes. Both of its senators are on the right side of the aisle, as well as 12 of its House members. Additionally, only seven Democrats are represented in Pennsylvania's House delegation.

Democrats need to take this state by storm. As competitive districts become harder and harder to find, Democrats need to start taking marginal districts in states like Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Michigan if we want a majority in the House or the Senate. Here are some highlighted districts for consideration in 2004:

Pennsylvania Senate
Gov. Ed Rendell won (by a fairly good margin) in 2004, and brought with him many moderate Repukes. Many of them (or so I've heard) have decided to switch parties since Election 2002. The first real test of this will be in this race. A state as Democratic-leaning as Pennsylvania should have at least one (probably two) Democratic senators. Sen. Arlen Specter seems vulnerable in 2004, with the growing of Anti-Bush sentiment and his from the right primary challenge from Pat Toomey. Rep. Joe Hoeffel seems like the best challenger here, but if Charlie Crystle wins the primary, he may have the momentum to win this election also. Either way, this could be one of our best chances at a pickup. A win here would almost guarantee a 2006 ouster of Sen. Rick Santorum (as Specter is more popular than Santorum, and Santorum's likely challenger, Bob Casey, Jr., is much more popular than Hoeffel or Crystle).

Pennsylvania-4
Melissa Hart, an archconservative in a moderate district, would be vulnerable to a strong challenger. While none may appear on the horizon at this current time, she could vulnerable to one person: State Treasurer Barbara Hafer. Now, most of you will think "Isn't Barbara Hafer a Republican?" You would be correct. However, she supported Gov. Ed Rendell, which caused her to be nearly thrown out of the Republican party (which is controlled by a group of neo-cons). Therefore, many believe that she will consider a run for Congress in 2004, as a Democrat. She could beat Hart, since the district has a great number of Democrats and a large amount of moderate Repukes, who would be better represented by someone more mainstream than Hart.

Pennsylvania-6
Jim Gerlach won by the skin of his teeth in 2002. His most likely challenger, Dan Wofford, has declined a run. However, State Sen. Connie Williams, the next best thing, is said to want a shot at this. This seat leans slightly to the left (add Gore's and Nader's vote totals together here and you come up with 51.3 percent of the electorate). Gerlach is very vulnerable here and Connie Williams could be elected, if we support her.

Pennsylvania-13
OK. This is not a Repuke district, but it is an open Democratic district, which marginally went to the Democrats last time around. Rep. Joe Hoeffel's district has long been noted as being one of the nation's most competitive (in 1996, Hoeffel lost to then Rep. Jon Fox by 10 votes). However, in redistricting the seat has become much more Democratic, and with the right candidate, could become a safe member of the rank and file. The best candidate is: Alyson Schwartz. She considered a run for the Senate in 2000, but I think she'll run here and win. If Bob Casey, Jr. doesn't run in 2006 (some say he's holding out for the governor's mansion in 2010), that race could be between Schwartz and Hafer, if both are elected to the House.

Pennsylvania-15
Pat Toomey's open seat presents Democrats with one of their greatest opportunities. Gore's and Nader's votes added together for the district gives us 51.9 percent of the vote. State. Sen. Lisa Boscola appears to be the best Democratic candidate, should she run.

There you have it. If we can follow these plans, we could end up with a new Senate seat and three new House seats. The great thing about Pennsylvania is that we still have opportunities if we win all of these seats. Both PA-7 and PA-8 could go Democratic if they opened up (we'd need outstanding candidates to defeat the incumbents), as could PA-3.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

1. We did not make out so bad in PA in 2002, considering

The GOP gerrymandered the state so badly that we stood to lose up to 3 seats, but in the end we only had a net loss of one. I think we may be able to unseat Gerlach, a freshman rep. who only squeaked by in 2002 in the new 6th district, despite it being tailor-made for him. And Toomey's district is pretty conservative, but since it is an open seat I suppose it is possible to pick it up. Bob Casey Jr. does not happen to live in that district, does he? From what I understand, it is a blue-collar, Reagan-Democrat type district that a pro-labor, anti-abortion Democrat like Casey might be able to win.

[goobergunch]

2. As a PA-6 resident, here are my thoughts

PA-Sen: I concur.

PA-4: Hafer would be a great candidate, but I haven't heard her express interest in running.

PA-6: I wrote my analysis of this race here.

PA-13: I concur.

PA-15: I concur.

PA-7, PA-8: We'll never beat these incumbents without major scandal or a tremendous Democratic wave, but we can win both when they become open.

[jiacinto]

3. Santorum is beatable IF a candidate emerges

who can unify both Western and Eastern PA Democrats.

[jiacinto]

4. I don't know if Hart could be defeated

I think she is popualr.

[goobergunch]

5. Our 2000 candidate made racist statements in the past...

which the NRCC bashed him for. I think we gave her a pass in 2002.

[mndemocrat_29]

7. She is fairly popular

But she's never really ran against a great candidate (which Barbara Hafer would be). The big question is whether or not Hafer would be interested in the race. She'd have a much better shot at a Senate seat in 2006 if she ran here for the House (Democrats would have seen what she's like in Congress). Hart isn't liked at all by Democrats and many moderate Repukes would abandon her if they were presented with a winnable candidate (like Hafer).

[jiacinto]

10. The key question

Would the Democrats accept Hafer?

[goobergunch]

13. I'd accept her over Hart...

of course, I don't exactly speak for the Penna. Democratic Party.

[NewJerseyDem]

6. Pennsylvania looks pretty good for 2004

I think that we have a shot at Specter, particularly if the republican primary is bloody. However, Specter will probably be portrayed as a liberal by Toomey and that may make him more appealing to swing voters.

Our best shot for a pickup in the House looks like its Toomey's district. It seems like a complete tossup and it will probably just depend on who runs the best campaign and who has the most money.

Gerlach could also be vulnerable and we better get him now because the longer he stays there the stronger he will be. Too many republicans are in swing districts in the northeast and we can never seem to beat them after a few elections.

I doubt that we can beat Hart. She seems pretty strong and he would be a big surprise if we ousted her.

We should be able to hold Hoeffel's district. It leans democratic and if the democratic candidate runs a solid campaign it should stay in the democratic column.

Those other three seats are clearly republican but if the did open up democrats might have some chance but it is unlikely that the republicans will retire anytime soon.

[goobergunch]

8. Remember my comment in the headline re: Wofford's not running?

;-)

[Vis Numar]

9. Nice Review of the situation

The recipe there for a turnover, it's just a matter of getting all the right ingredients in the Democratic mix of candidates. I've looked in-depth for both the Senate contests, and think that the 'insurgent' candidate on both sides of the primary contest have a real shot at winning their nominations. Of course, I pay more attention to online things than what's going on offline, but at least this points toward the potential.

Based on the previous election stats, Toomey starts out with about 35% of the Republican vote against Specter. We can probably add on another 5% because of his advantage in his district. Can he get that remaining 10% from Specter? I think there's a real shot of it happening. Independents and conservative Democrats that have voted for Specter have no say in the matter, and real conservatives do.

On the Democratic side, I've not seen anything about Hoeffel that protends to his being a heavy favorite, other than his "annointment" by the establishment. But history shows that the PA Dem establishment doesn't really have a strong say in the parties nominations. Crystle is very intriguing, and if he is able to put in his own money to match Hoeffel's, he's got a real shot at winning with his non-traditional candidacy.

So, for the Senate, I see a Toomey vs Crystle battle shaping up in PA, which is going to be ground zero in the Dean vs Bush 2004 matchup.

As for the House races in PA, I don't see any pickups happening yet. The Dems should be able to hold onto what they have, but there is really only one strong opportunity for a pick-up, and that's in the 15th, but who is going to run?

[Cheswick2.0]

11. What about Pa10... Sherwood?

It is my district and I would be interested in hearing your analysis.

[jiacinto]

12. What I know

The above is the map from the 1990s.



The above is the map used in the 2002 election.

Here is a closeup of the 10th and the 11th.





The new 10th gave 56% of its votes to Bush. The old 10th only went 50-47% for Bush.

Conversely Kanjorski's seat improved. The old 11th went only 49-47% for Gore. The new 11th went 54-43% for Gore.

Redistricting took Scranton out of that seat and give to Kanjorski. Basically that improved Kanjorski's position while making Sherwood's seat heavily Republican.

I also notice that the 10th dips down toward Snyder County, which is heavily Republican. I lived in PA for four years and there a few, if any, Democrats in that area. I do know that Northumberland County has some Democrats, but they tend to vote for Republicans in national elections. Union and Lycoming Counties are heavily Republican.

Without Scranton in the 10th there is no way a Democrat can win it. The PA GOP basically threw all the Luzurne and Lackawana County Democrats into the 11th. Which makes Kanjorski's seat safe, but which also makes Sherwood safe.

No opportunities there.

[mndemocrat_29]

14. kick