Liberal Oasis: Can Anyone Stop Dean?

[Larkspur]

http://www.liberaloasis.com/archives/082403.htm#082803

If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt, Joe Biden, Al From and Bruce Reed collectively banging their heads into a wall.

With a new Zogby poll giving Howard Dean a 21-point lead over Kerry in NH everyone now knows that a Dean nomination is more than just a possibility.

If Dean wins Iowa and NH (he currently leads in both), and has the most money (not yet, but on his way), he’d be damn near unstoppable.

Except for incumbent presidents and vice-presidents, nobody has won the early deuce since Jimmy Carter in ‘76.
<SNIP>

And if a “Stop Dean” movement can’t get behind a single candidate and swamp Dean with money, chances are the momentum from the early wins would carry him through.
<SNIP>

[markus]

1. The DLCers have to be trying to figure out what to do on Super Tuesday

They don't have a solid south to stop Dean. Unless Edwards drops out or Graham catches fire, they are in a world of hurt. Kerry and Lieberman are two "eastern" for the South. Gephardt could fire up union folks to some extent, and Sharpton and Braun just make a mess of the racial angle.

The entire Super Tuesday cofferdam is about to collapse, and they can't be too happy about that.

[vi5]

2. They make a mess of the racial angle? What exactly does that mean?

Especially since they have roughly the same positions as Dean on most issues particularly taxes and the war. So how is this "making a mess"?

[JI7]

5. i wonder what that's about also

"making a mess of the racial angle" ? what did the poster mean by that?

[budmo]

40. DLC ...

DLC Is becoming more and more insignificant...I resent the fact that they dismiss the core Dems as some nuts or something...they may as well be republicans ..so I guess I don't give a rats A... what they want to figure out to do on Super Tuesday. Their irrelevance will show when Dean clinches the nomination.

[Fovea]

3. I am sorry

But when did Kucinich leave the race?

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. He has never really been in it

He currently battling it out with Sharpton, Braun, and Graham for last place.

[JohnKleeb]

10. well maybe if we got some publicity that would help

He's been saying the same stuff your guy has been and I think hes been saying a lot. Sorry but it aint over to its over, and hes the big time comeback kid. He can do this, people have doubted him before, he saved a local steelmill and hospital.

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. I agree with you that Kucinich and Dean have similar stands on some issues

So you have to ask the question why is Dean having so much more success than Kucinich. Sure Dean is getting a lot of attention from the press, but he began attracting large numbers of supporters before the press took notice of him.

Dean started gaining prominence with his opposition to the war in Iraq. So why did many of the people opposed to the war flock to Dean rather than Kucinich? Perhaps they see Dean as more electable. He has been the Governor of a state and is much more presentable on TV.

[JohnKleeb]

15. I dunno

but they do seldom mention him and you have gotta understand that bothers me. The media and dont bite me for this but you gotta admit its helped your campaign big time, whether the connation was negative or postive, I read an article the other day and Dennis had been speaking to some union members in Pittsburgh and this woman was quoted as saying "is he like new, I never heard of him", the press rarely talks about him, and frankly he has earned the right. Kucinich is unelectable sigh so sick of it but he is a comeback person.

[Freddie Stubbs]

17. If he wants press, he is going to have to earn it

Just giving speeches is not enough. He needs to raise money, attract activists, and gain the support of primary voters. Dean has gotten a big bump since the media started paying attention to him. But they didn't start paying attention to him until he started polling in double digits. So far, most polls have Kucinich polling between 0-3%.

[JohnKleeb]

18. you dont find anything wrong with

Dean being mentioned all the time as the lone anti war in Iraq person. I sure as hell do its misleading, and I think he has earned press, he has made many great stands yet you dont hear about em. Whos the one who organized the dems in congress to vote against the war, it was Kucinich, and also he nearly got us Ohio in the 2000 election he worked his butt off, and you should see him with his constiuents, hes such a friend to them.

[Freddie Stubbs]

19. Lyndon LaRouche opposed the war also, but he isn't mentioned either

Right now Kucinich is just a fringe candidate. Until he starts attracting a significant amount of support, he isn't going to get the respect and attention that top-tier candidates are getting.

[JohnKleeb]

21. yea but hes been doing other stuff

I know LaRouche opposed the war but this is the guy who got a lot of congressional dems to oppose the war. Maybe he needs to work for some of it but you really think it is a ok to call Dean the most liberal candiate of them all and say Dean is the only one who opposed the war. I see a lot of problems in that not only is it bad journalism but it is wrong. Dennis is less fringe than you think, hes actually second on what has made Dean's campaign, meet up. I tell you this give him a chance he has made upsets before, and damnit he can do it again. Fringe you were once fringe, and its only August.

[Freddie Stubbs]

24. Kucinich is barely in 2nd place

He is just a wisker ahead of a guy who currently isn't even running. And no one is calling Dean the most liberal candidate.

[JohnKleeb]

26. the press is

are you the press? I read it all the time. I know you guys arent but it sure as hell seems the press is. On Clark yea, well you said Kucinich wasnt influencing people, hes in second place using the tool you guys used to get where you got. Thats pretty good and the fact is hes not even using it that much.

[Freddie Stubbs]

28. I have not read that. Could you cite some sources please?

And I am not the press (although sometimes I wish that I were).

[JohnKleeb]

31. I dont have any links

but you are trying to tell me that the press doesnt call Dean liberal if so how come I see and imo rightfully so Dean supporting denouncing Dean is McGovern stuff. I dont like that either its not true.

[Freddie Stubbs]

32. You said that the press was calling Dean the most liberal candidate

And I do not believe that I have seen that in the press.

[JohnKleeb]

33. then why do I hear about you guys complaining that the press

regards him as McGovern. Thats saying hes too liberal to win which I think is bullshit. Its not they say he is too liberal they infer to McGovern who was pretty liberal but even with his defeat a winner.

[Freddie Stubbs]

35. They say the he is too liberal -- not that he is the 'most liberal'

But they are not saying that he is the most liberal candidate. Sharpton and Braun are probably to the left of Kucinich. But like Kucinich, they are not garnering much support, so the press in not giving them much coverage.

How in the world was McGovern a winner? Nixon won 60% of popular vote and 96% of the Electoral vote. We can't afford more 'victories' like that.

[JohnKleeb]

36. how was McGovern a winner

Ummm gee he did some good things as a senator. A winner in a sense didnt you see truthisall thread about DK. Fine my mistake but they are basically saying hes too liberal. I am not saying McGovern won his election, he is a great person and hence a winner. I didnt say he would the presidential election, I am not that stupid :crazy:

[Larkspur]

20. NO, Nancy Pelosi led the House Dems against the War Resolution

she was the MInority Whip and bucked Gephardt on that issues.

[JohnKleeb]

22. Its not like DK didnt help did he

Did he or did he not rally a lot of the anti war support?

[Larkspur]

23. He didn't make the press like Nancy did

Kucinich may have influenced the debate in Congress, but he was not shown as the leader. Nancy Pelosi came across as the leader, not Dennis.

[JohnKleeb]

25. came across thats the point

Pelosi aint running so if we want a dem who opposed the war and did something about it, I think Kucinich is it. Well Dennis clearly is a leader, hes been in congress since '96 and leads an important cancus. He was influential to say the least.

[Freddie Stubbs]

27. Influential?

86 Democrats in the House voted for the Iraq resolution. He didn't seem to have that much influence on them.

[KaraokeKarlton]

30. My opinion of why Kucinich isn't getting the attention...

This is only my personal perception of him, but I'm guessing that I'm a pretty good representation of the middle than a lot of people here are.

I'm going to be perfectly honest and very blunt, as that's my style...so please don't take offense. I'm just being honest, not trying to bash him.

I can't listen to him no matter how hard I try. I just can't sit through the shrill screeching...his voice used in the way I've seen him use it is like nails going down a chalkboard to my ears. On top of that, he comes off as too radical. His views aren't even remotely consistent with those of middle America, at least not the way he communicates them. In fact, I find him to be a little bit frightening.

Is it that America isn't ready for his message? Probably.
Is it that his presentation comes across as looking kind of whacked? Probably.
Is it that anyone thinks he's a bad guy and doesn't have some good ideas? I doubt it.

Is he working hard? Sure.
Is he working as hard as Dean? I don't think anyone is doing that. Dean has earned all the press he's getting, and as frustrating as it is for the supporters of others to see him getting all this attention, there's no denying that he's worked damn hard to get it and no one should begrudge him that.

Okay, that's my honest take on Dennis's dilemma, for what it's worth.

[LiberalOasis]

29. Presidential campaigns are not fair

It would be nice if political reporters treated every candidate equally, just informed us about the issues, and let people make up their own minds. But they don't. They cover the horse race, the ups and downs, twists and turns, polls and gaffes.

Good campaigns deal with that reality, and do creative things to make their own news and raise their profile. Dean did that. He was considered an also-ran by the poo-bahs, but he managed to find ways to attract attention, money and followers.

For all the meritorous aspects of Kucinich's record, he hasn't done what Dean has done. It's not necessarily fair that the media ignores him because of it, but that's the way it is. The media isn't going change between now and January. If Kucinich is going to get a bigger slice of the attention, the onus is on him to turn heads.

[renie408]

11. You're gonna get letters

edit: Jeez, how did I manage to get a typo in a post without text??

[Octafish]

4. If that's so, then Bush wins.

Certainly, Dean is superior in every way to Bush. That's not the point. Smirk, Sneer and Turd Blossom WANT to face Dean.

Why? Because they can LABEL Dean all sorts of things that the vast middle will remember in November.

[LuminousX]

7. Yes, yes...

Let's take our actions based on what we think our opposition thinks that we think that they want us to do.

[cjbuchanan]

8. I think that they will do that no matter what

If Kerry gets the nod, they will play up the whole Massachusetts angle (look for Ted Kennedy's name to show up a lot).

No matter who the Dems put up, Bush & Co. will say they are to liberal and out of touch with America. Each candidate has some issue that they will exploit as an "example" of them being on the left wing of the Democratic Party.

We need someone who will fight back and we need someone who will stir up support amongst the base.

Most of all, we do not need to do Bush & Co.'s job for them and say that any of our candidates are too liberal or far left. We can beat Bush, but only if we all stick together.

[dfong63]

9. right, that's why we need

... a candidate who will be "in their faces". like Dean!

[renie408]

13. So far...

the only thing they have had to say about Edwards is that he is too young. They can't really bitch about how long he has been in politics, because by election time, it will be the same length of time that Bush was. And the 'he's too young' thing could backfire on them. Breath of fresh air, new ideas and all that. They could make him out to be an ambulance chaser, but then he counters with how he earned his bizillion dollars going after corporate jerks...like the Republicans.

[peaceandjustice]

39. John Edwards: ambulance chaser

That is one thing they'll say. They'll try and play to America's supposed hatred of trial lawyers. Edwards' staff say they can deflect this by parading out heroic stories of him taking on corporate polluters and tight-fisted companies who tried to skip out on workers compensation, but that remains to be seen.

[DrFunkenstein]

16. From Who? The Yale Cowboy?

One of the reasons that Kerry plays so well against Bush is how their lives mirror. A Skull & Bones
(;-)) match-up will remind voters of Bush's life as a Northeasterner with a record as a coke-snorting male-cheerleader that used his Daddy's connections to bail him out of Vietnam and his various business fiascos, not to mention elected Governor and President.

Bush is an incompetent Daddy's boy. Kerry is an officer and a gentleman with a record of hard-nosed investigations. You make the call.

<>

[renie408]

12. Yeah...

That's my fear. I figure that I am pretty much your average Joe Democrat and if I can't like Dean that much even before the Republican campaign machine gets hold of him, what are they going to do with him?? Just think about every anti-Dean thing you have ever read here and elsewhere times about ten.

I do recognize that that is NOT a valid reason for not voting for someone you believe in. It is just something that has been wandering around in my head.

[clar]

34. Octafish,

I think you're wrong. I believe that John Kerry is the most qualified dem running, and would make the best president. I don't think he'd make the best candidate. He's a dignified, reflective man. No matter what his supporters say, I detect no inclination, on his part, to wrestle in the mud.

Who knows why some people have teflon overcoats and others don't? Beats me. It's going to ugly. Kerry's accomplishments as a soldier have nothing to do with the coming political dogfight.

Howard Dean and team have demonstrated that they're going to take it agressively to the President. We need an attacker.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

41. Jimmy Carter WANTED to face Ronald Reagan

He assumed that Reagan was way too conservative to get elected and salivated at the prospect of running against him, just as Herbert Hoover hoped in 1932 that his opponent would be a liberal governor of NY named Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

So things don't always turn out as expected...Dean could end up being Bush and Rove's worst nightmare.

[indigo32]

37. Wait..

tell me again why we should be stopping Dean?
:wtf:

[polpilot]

38. Unstoppable. With or without $$$$$$$$$$$ Dean was going to make a

great run at the nomination. Now he's comfortably ahead with very limited name recognition. No precedent for this campaign.

Dean '04...

[tedoll78]

42. Hmm..

I wouldn't say 100% unstoppable. Right now, I'd put it at 75%, and a month ago, I'd've said 40%. So he's making HUGE progress.

One thing he has going for him is a campaign that knows how to handle the major media outlets. Gimmickery works in certain situations, but the original ideas coming out of this campaign are the exponential factor leading to his success. The Bat, the singing of "Take Me Out to the Ball Game", the concert-style summer tour.. these all seem like piddly little things, but they're adding-up to big-time exposure. And the exposure has a twinge of positivity to it, as contrasted to the daily rape of Al Gore in 2000.

I'm also still wondering what kind of turnout boost we'll see in Iowa and New Hampshire. If Iowa's turnout goes up at least 10% and Dean wins handily, we know he's got something powerful for the general election. Imagine 5 million more voters showing-up to vote for Dean's ticket. Gore and Bush each got ~50 million last time; it'd be statistically impossible for Dean to lose in the Electoral College if he were to beat Bush by even a mere 5 million.

In my opinion, Dean's aim to bring new people into this process is the most powerful thing he has going for him right now when questioned about his electability. Imagine of shock on Wednesday morning if Dean were to win in such a manner.. and also realize that he'd be bringing looong coattails with him.

Watch Iowa and New Hampshire's turnouts.. they'll be very telling.

[HPLeft]

43. It's Early

I do agree that Dean has been generating quite a lot of excitement so far, but to employ a baseball analogy, that is the equivalent of being in 1st Place in June, with more than half a baseball season to go. And now that Dean has become the front-runner, all the remaining candidates will be aiming squarely at him.

The larger question is how deep Dean's support really is, and whether primary voters will be taking 2nd and 3rd looks at his candidacy between now and when they finally cast their vote. As much as I have enjoyed the Governor's feisty approach, I do not relish having a candidate representing the Left that can be easily painted as weak on national defense. If Bill Clinton had run against George HW Bush while the United States was at war, I suspect that voters might not have been anywhere as eager to elect a small state governor with no military or foreign policy experience.

Make no mistake about it. The American people have not recovered from the shock and trauma of 9/11, and they are unlikely to remove one inexperienced governor with no credible military or foreign policy experience (and doesn't it show), only to replace him with another one. If we want to win this election with some margin of error, and not just pray for a miracle, we will have to nominate a candidate with credible foreign policy experience, and ideally someone that the average person can easily imagine in the role of Commander-in-Chief. The only candidate in this field with that kind of resume is John Kerry.

Bush is vulnerable in 2004, but to win we Democrats will have choose a candidate with both our hearts and our heads.