TWO ARTICLES:
Bustamante Has Big Lead on Schwarzenegger http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-poll24aug24,1,7382768.story?coll=la-home-headlinessnip
As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.
Schwarzenegger received the support of 22%, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.
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Poll Analysis: Let the Campaigns Begin… The ballot is still confusing to voters.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/recall/la-me-poll24aug24-486pa2an.storysnip
Arnold Schwarzenegger started running his TV ads and introducing his economic advisors during the last two days of polling and the survey shows that in the last two days of interviewing, there was an uptick in votes for Schwarzenegger.
Two thirds of likely Democratic voters say they would vote for Bustamante as do 64% of liberal voters and 74% of liberal Democrats. Only 51% of Latino likely voters would vote for the Lt. Gov. Unions members are not overly enthused about Bustamante — 39% of union members would vote for him. Nearly three out of five Democrats who voted no on the recall also voted for Bustamante. Likely Republican voters have splintered their vote in support of the four major GOP candidates — 39% of Republicans would vote for Schwarzenegger, 21% for McClintock, 12% for Simon, and 10% for Ueberroth. More than two out of five conservative Republicans would vote for Schwarzenegger, 28% for McClintock and 14% for Simon. More than a third of moderate Republican voters would support Schwarzenegger and surprisingly, a quarter would vote for Bustamante, the sole major Democrat.
Republicans make up about 35% of the registered voters in the state, while Democrats make up 45% of registered voters. However, the Times Poll suggests a disproportionate number of Republican voters are likely to actually take part in the recall election — 43% of the turnout, with Democrats making up 45%. This recall hinges on the voters who decide to vote.
During the poll’s snapshot in time, Bustamante voters are more certain about their vote than voters for the other candidates tested. Two-thirds of the Lt. Gov.’s voters definitely will vote for him, compared to 54% of Schwarzenegger’s voters. Although four out of five likely voters suggest that having Bustamante running as the only Democratic candidate does not affect their getting out to vote on October 7th, nearly a fifth say that fact motivates them to get out to vote, including more than a fifth of Democrats. And among these likely Democratic voters who are motivated to vote , 79% would vote for the Lt. Gov. (and 79% would vote no on the recall). Among all likely voters motivated to get out to vote, 46% would vote for the Lt. Gov. and another 47% would vote no on the recall (but 48% would vote yes).
Arnold Schwarzenegger has basically the same effect on voters as Cruz Bustamante. More than seven out of 10 likely voters say that having the actor on the ballot does not affect their vote one way or the other, but slightly more than a quarter says it motivates them to get out to vote, including 25% of Republicans. Among likely Republican voters who are energized to vote because Schwarzenegger is on the ballot, nearly three out of five of them would vote for the actor and another 89% would vote for the recall.
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