Obama vs. McCain, by the map

[DeepModem Mom]

LAT: Obama vs. McCain, by the map
The Democrat polls about even with his GOP rival nationally, but both must focus their efforts on the states that went with Bush in 2004.
By Michael Finnegan, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
June 5, 2008

In many states that President Bush captured in the 2004 election, Barack Obama has swelled the ranks of Democrats by the thousands, drawing record numbers of young people and African Americans to the polls. But will this enthusiasm -- which propelled his victory Tuesday in the race for the Democratic nomination -- deliver enough of these states to Obama to win the presidency? That question is on the minds of strategists plotting the Democratic Party's drive to retake the White House. In national polls, Obama runs about even with Republican John McCain, but he cannot win the 270 electoral votes he needs unless he picks up states that Bush won.

McCain, for his part, must hold all of Bush's states, or else carry some new ones to make up for any losses....

***

...(A)part from Virginia, where the rapidly growing Washington suburbs have fueled recent Democratic victories, the South looks bleak for Obama, pollsters say....

***

In the Southwest, McCain holds an edge in Arizona, his home state. But in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, rapid population growth -- and an influx of Latinos -- has led to newly favorable conditions for Democrats. Bush, who drew 45% of the Latino vote in 2004, carried the three states. McCain hopes that his support for legalizing many undocumented immigrants, and the political price he paid for it within his party, will keep him competitive with Latinos. Also comforting to McCain: Latinos have sided with Clinton over Obama in Democratic contests, most recently on Sunday in the Puerto Rico primary.

For Obama, perhaps the biggest challenge lies in three big industrial states that offer a rich trove of electoral votes: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries, Obama won scant support from white blue-collar voters, a key bloc in the Rust Belt. History suggests that they will lean toward McCain. In 2004, white voters with no college degree voted for Bush over Kerry by 23 percentage points; Obama cannot afford to lose them by such a wide margin. McCain's support of free trade, especially the North American Free Trade Agreement, could hurt his effort in the economically pressed region. But "there's going to be some natural appeal for the old war veteran who sort of speaks his mind," said William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Frey described Obama as "a harder person for a lot of these older, middle-aged baby boomers and seniors to identify with."

As the first black presidential nominee of a major party, Obama will also face a race factor. "I wouldn't say it's out and out racism," Frey said, "but it's the whole idea of changing from the stereotypical candidate they're used to." At the same time, a surge in black turnout in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit and other cities could offset any Obama shortfall among working-class whites.

In the Midwest and elsewhere, Obama and McCain face a highly competitive campaign for independents, notably in Minnesota and Wisconsin, states that Kerry won by narrow margins....

One state Bush won in 2004 is particularly ripe for Obama to pick up: Iowa. Obama built a powerful organization that swept him to victory in Iowa's Democratic caucuses in January. But Florida, a far more populous swing state and the scene of the 2000 vote-count debacle, could be tough for Obama. Older voters, a vast group there, strongly preferred Clinton over Obama. And Obama has struggled to gain the trust of some Jewish voters, a crucial constituency in South Florida. That dynamic has led to fierce competition between Obama and McCain over which would be a stronger champion of Israel's security.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-map5-2008jun05,0,4228922,full.story