Hillary Clinton and the 'Told You So' Calculation

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Hillary Clinton and the 'Told You So' Calculation

Facing almost impossible odds in her quest to become the Democratic nominee for president, Hillary Rodham Clinton has started to cast the presidential race as a historical anomaly in which she is being badly mistreated. In doing so, Clinton and her husband seem to be laying the groundwork -- whether unconsciously or consciously -- to go back to Democratic voters if Barack Obama comes up short in November with a very concise message: "Told you so."...

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The Clintons' message is that Democrats are ignoring all past precedent in choosing their nominee in this race, and that alleged break with history has serious implications in the fall general election. As we have noted in this space before, Clinton's general election argument has some real merit. Current polling in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio shows Clinton running better than Obama against John McCain in hypothetical general election matchups. Couple that trio of states with surveys that show Obama and McCain knotted in a tie in Michigan and there is reason for some level of concern within the Democratic ranks. Win none of those four states and it's hard to see how Obama becomes president this November. (Obama, of course, argues -- and polling bears out -- that he is the stronger candidate in states like Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa -- all three of which President George W. Bush won in 2004. Even if he wins those three states, however, it would only equal the number of electoral votes -- 21 -- gained by winning Ohio.)

The Clintons -- ever the consummate pols -- know that the likelihood of convincing the vast majority of remaining superdelegates to side with her over Obama -- who leads in pledged delegates, popular vote (excluding Florida and Michigan) and total contests won -- is slim. But one of the hallmarks of the Clinton brand is the ability to live to fight another day....

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History is not as kind to Democratic retreads, but the truth of the matter is that Clinton's best hope to be president depends on three factors:

In the short term, she must continue to make the case that not only would she be the stronger candidate against McCain but that in not picking her Democrats are going against historical patterns. In the middle term, she must transform herself into a fervent Obama advocate -- leaving no question that she wants to see the Illinois senator elected president. As Matt Bennett, a former Clinton administration official, put it: "If she reveals that she's rooting against the Democrats in any way in the general, she would become a pariah." Finally, in the long term, Clinton needs to hope that if Obama is defeated (and we have ABSOLUTELY no evidence to believe she would like to see that scenario come to pass), the after-action report within the party jibes with the argument she is making in the final days of the primary: That Democrats rushed to judgment by picking the fresh face rather than the reliable warrior, and that the big, Rust Belt states were always the crucial battleground in the race versus McCain.

The window appears to be closed on Clinton in the race for the 2008 nomination. But that doesn't mean that the final weeks of her bid are without purpose as it relates to her future political plans....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/05/the_i_told_you_so_factor.html

[elocs]

1. I believe the sun has set on Hillary Clinton's presidential ambitions.

She may have a tough time eventually holding her Senate seat. She certainly does have the "if I can't be president then you won't be either" attitude with "Obama can't win the race" (even though he getting handicapped by Hillary whacking him in the knees and acting as though she is innocent of ever doing anything that would hurt his chances--no, butter wouldn't melt in her mouth). She is only staying in the race now to be able to say, "nah, nah, nah-nah, nah, nah!" if Obama loses.

[RaleighNCDUer]

2. The one problem with that scenario is

she doesn't have the political judgment to get through the campaign supporting Obama, without her true feelings coming out. She has a horribly tin ear, politically, and will, absolutely, give evidence that she wants him to lose.

I promise.

[angstlessk]

3. Democrats have ALREADY gone against historical patterns...see any white males??

no, you say. We cannot use any historical patterns here now can we??? since we have an a-hisorical nominee for the first time in history of the USofA!

[The_Counsel]

4. Here's Another Problem With The "Told Ya So" Strategy...

...and I thought the Clintons were aware of this:

If Obama loses the general, at least half of all Democrats will be blaming the Clintons, not Obama.

Hillary has every right to stay in at least through June 4, but had she suspended the campaign back when it made sense (about March or so) she would have had every right to the "told ya so" argument if things go south for Obama in November. Now? Not so much...

[shagsak]

5. Don't forget

That if she truly wanted a Democratic victory, she could have dropped out when she first saw the signs of inevitablity and possibly could have salvaged support for the Democratic nominee in the General. As it stands now there simply isn't enough time. The damage is done and reassembling the party is a longshot.