Is Clinton Right That She's the Stronger Candidate?

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Is Clinton Right That She's the Stronger Candidate?

"I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate. ... The White House is won in the swing states and I am winning the swing states."
-- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) during her victory speech Tuesday night in West Virginia.

....(T)he best way to analyze whether Clinton would indeed be a stronger general election candidate than Obama is to take a look state by state at the playing field on which the race will be fought in November....

***

Taken as a whole, Clinton's argument that she is the stronger potential general election candidate against McCain is true -- to a point. She is stronger -- although not by much -- if the playing field in 2008 is a mirror image of the battlegrounds of 2004 and 2000. Clinton, at the moment, is more strongly positioned to win in three states -- Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio -- that have decided the winner in the last two presidential contests. But that argument only holds if you believe two things: First, that the playing field will be essentially unchanged between 2000/2004 and 2008 and, second, that current polling is an accurate predictor of what things will look like in November.

On the first point, Obama's campaign insists that the idea of a static group of battleground states between 2004 and 2008 is old thinking and misunderstands the nature of Obama's candidacy. Campaign manager David Plouffe has insisted that places like North Carolina and North Dakota could be competitive due to the unique appeal of Obama's change message. (The Fix is somewhat skeptical of this argument, but time will tell.)

On the second, it's difficult to predict whether Obama's inability to win primaries in Ohio, Pennylvania and West Virginia against Clinton will translate into weakness in a general election when voters are faced with the choice between the Illinois senator and McCain. Current general election polls in each of the states (as well as Florida) show Clinton as the stronger candidate. But if Clinton is removed from the race, it seems likely that some of those voters who are skeptical about Obama will ultimately come home.

Just how many Democratic-leaning voters defect to McCain is the key question. And, as of today, it's impossible to know.

Put simply: A traditional and static map would seem to affirm Clinton's argument. A changing battlefield with a series of newly competitive states plays to Obama's strengths....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/05/is_clinton_right.html?hpid=topnews

[rucky]

1. But how much can she bench press?

[marylanddem]

2. No.

[leftofcool]

3. Demographics will not change just because O has a hope and

change message. They never have and never will. Red states will stay red and blues will stay blue and that is that.

[cali]

6. but the electorate has been changing. It has nothing to do with hope

and everything to do with hard work and the political zeitgueist. Dems have added millions to their roles. Demographic groups that normally don't participate at high rates, have been and of course states change from red to blue and blue to red. It's absurd to assume that the political playing field is static. Never has been. Never will be. I live in what was up until 40 years ago, the staunchest of red states. Now it's the staunchest of blue. States like CO are indeed changing demographically and politically. So are states like NC. They may or may not go dem in this year's presidential contest, but there's no doubt that they are becoming more purple.

[Captain Hilts]

4. According to last week's Bloomberg poll she beats McCain by a wider margin.

But I think either would beat McCain.

[theoldman]

5. I think she is the stronger candidate.

Her problem is that she ran a lousy campaign. Remember that Bush was not the stronger candidate but his handlers ran a strong consistent campaign. The real question is whether she would make a better president. I think that most people believe that Obama would make a better president.