Why the Democratic race could end in North Carolina

[DeepModem Mom]

USA Today: Why the Democratic race could end in North Carolina
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

RALEIGH, N.C. — The end could be near. Or the endgame, at least, of a surprisingly drawn-out Democratic presidential contest. Four months and 42 states after the opening Iowa caucuses, the primary in North Carolina on May 6 now looms as a pivotal final showdown between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Obama starts with a double-digit lead in polls here, a state where 2,400 free tickets to his rally at the War Memorial Auditorium in Greensboro last week were gone within three hours of the announcement he would appear. But Clinton has appeal in the Tar Heel State, too, and is competing hard. The day after Obama's rally, she drew 1,000 supporters to the gym at Terry Sanford High School in Fayetteville for a town hall meeting.

"I really believe May 6 has the potential to be everything," says Joe Trippi, a strategist for the presidential bids of former North Carolina senator John Edwards this year and Howard Dean in 2004. "Every day you see increased pressure on Hillary Clinton about why she's staying in, and if she could win in North Carolina it would shut down that kind of talk and open up the possibility she could get there" to the nomination. "But if he wins in North Carolina," Trippi says of Obama, "I think you're going to see things close up very quickly. You'll see a lot of superdelegates line up behind him."

The Pennsylvania primary comes first, on April 22, with 158 convention delegates at stake. Clinton is favored there, though a Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday showed her lead narrowing to single digits, 50%-41%. An unexpected victory by Obama would dash her hopes for a comeback, but a win by Clinton wouldn't be the sort of surprise that could reshape the race. Indiana, which also votes May 6, is considered a tossup.

In North Carolina, however, an upset by Clinton could change the dynamic of a contest now heading in Obama's favor....

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-02-Endgame_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip&imw=Y

[zazen]

1. I wonder how the Richard Moore/Bev Perdue primary might affect this

Whether fair or not, Perdue is perceived as a female good ol' boy from Eastern Nawth Carulinuh. Moore, who's much younger and even more tall, dark and handsome in person (I just saw him at the salad bar at Whole Foods Tuesday--be still my beating heart) is perceived to represent NC's century-old "progressive" spirit, which is still pretty damned conservative but more open than the rest of the south. And NC Democrats take a lot of pride in that.

I think gender plays a role in people subconsciously thinking he'll "role up his sleeves and get to work" in that exciting, vibrant RTP/entrepreneurial way like so many start-ups here (all begun by men), and they subconsciously think she won't. My 13-year-old daughter saw her ad last night and completely unprompted from me, said, "I've known _so_ many teachers like that. They smile and smile at you, but you know they're never going to change _any_thing." Subconsciously, Perdue reminds people (and children) of tow-the-line female schoolteachers and principals. Whether that's latent infantile anger at maternal power (a la Dinnerstein and Chodorow), I don't know, but it's there.

So, if you're not voting for Hilary, do you feel guilty and fill in the circle for Perdue, and vice versa? The gender dynamics are there, especially among the women.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. still on track