DCCC Memo Sees Reverse of ’94 Rout

[NewJerseyDem]

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/49_94/news/4793-1.html (subscription required)

In a memo being circulated to his colleagues today, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Robert Matsui (Calif.) lays out a race-by-race blueprint that he argues will return his party to the majority in November.

The memo outlines what House Democrats have dubbed the “Campaign for a New Majority,” which debuted Tuesday night with a fundraiser feting Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) that raised roughly $2 million for the DCCC.

Matsui’s missive previews the prevailing national message Democrats hope to use in their targeted races as well as offers the first extensive look at the party’s much-ballyhooed efforts to widen the House playing field.

“People are ready for new leadership in Washington because the Republican government is clearly not working for ordinary Americans,” writes Matsui.

[lastknowngood]

1. This guy needs to really get a clue we don't stand a chance

in Nov. if we can lose no more than 20 to 25 seats in congress we will be lucky.

[lancdem]

2. Huh?

Polls consistently show Dems with an advantage on the generic ballot question. Matsui's not a pipe-dreamer.

[Frodo]

18. Both are wrong.

A "generic ballot" advantage for Democrats hardly ever translates to actual races because nobody ever runs a "generic candidate" and redistricting has made WAY too many races non-competitive. If a 60/40 Republican district sits right next to a 65/35 Democratic district, that may translate to a slim "generic ballot" advantage in total votes, but neither seat is going to change hands.

On the other hand. There is ZERO chance that we are going to lose 20-25 seats "if we are lucky". There are way too few competitive races this time around, and redistricting in Texas will cost us at least five seats, but I think we won't net more than about ten seats lost and we're more likely to gain 1-5 seats (that's net of the TX changes).

Taking back the house, unfortunately, will be nearly impossible unless Kerry sweeps to a HEAVY victory.

[NewJerseyDem]

3. Huh?

We will definitely not lose that much. At most, we could lose about 10 seats but I doubt that seriously. There are only 40 or so seats that are even considered competitive. I can't even think of 25 democrats that have much of a chance at losing. Due to gerrymandering most seats are either republican or democratic so it is very unlikely that a major change will occur. I admit that picking up control of congress is unlikely but Matsui is chairing the DCCC so he has to be optimistic.

[lastknowngood]

5. Texas alone redistricted 7 democrats out and with democrats

running as repug lites all over the place were in real trouble. In Virginia I think that did the same thing so it will be ugly. Don't you think some democrats will be mad that their "congressperson" voted with the shrub on almost everything? These fools didn't learn a damn thing from 2002, their still running away from the Librul/democrat labels. If it weren't for Dean they would all be taking pictures with the shrub and running on how much their like him. Their running against gay marriage and ever other boogie man the rethuglicans can come up with.

[NewJerseyDem]

7. Well

The redistricting in Texas will lose us seats but several democrats may be able to survive. Plus, there are plenty of vulnerable republican seats out there, WA-8, CT-2, CO-3, GA-12, AZ-1, CO-7, LA-3, IN-8, KY-3, etc. So, we have a chance in the House because so many of those close 2002 races broke for the republicans and we might just be able to get a few of them to break this way and things won't be too bad.

The liberals in those districts are likely to vote for the democratic nominee. Plus, when the democratic nominee is getting less than a third of the vote in the district, you have to reach out A LOT to republican voters. Another thing is that these 5 republicans, maybe not Boyd, are actually conservative democrats. Sometimes people forget that there are democrats out there that aren't really liberal and that those democrats aren't just giving in when they take conservative positions or refuse to endorse a democrat.

[ed_vadem]

22. last, you are wrong about VA, with our redistricting

It occurred in the year 2000 and our delegation of 11 lost only one seat that had been democratic for one term. The 4 to 7 split thus became 3 to 8 in favor of the repukes.

All of our Dem seats are considered safe by the pundits (Boucher, Scott and Moran). An intra democratic party contest in the 8th District has erupted and will be watched closely for results in the June 8th primary. I have been in the 8th for 2 years but lived in the same precinct for many many more years.

The 10th and 11th districts are in Northern VA and will have general election candidates. Both of these districts will need lots of $$$ to been elevated into battleground contests in November

The 8th District primary has basically one issue and will be discussed in various threads that are off topic for this thread.

The most serious problem, IMHO beyond Texas is of course California. The Year 2000 redistricting was not under the control of Tom Delay and it will be interesting to see Governator make a move to do an off year redistricting effort for the 2006 elections in the Golden state.

[Wabbajack]

23. We lost that Va seat

before redistricting with a special election when the Dem incumbent died.

[ButterflyBlood]

24. oh please

California has a Democratic legislature. It would never let Arnold do redistricting. Besides, if Arnold even called for that he'd be toast when reelection came around because of how opposed Californians would be to it. Too many DUers are so angry about the way Arnold took power that they seem to be convinced he can rule by fiat, when in fact he is actually quite powerless when the legislature and all other state offices are controlled by the Democrats.

[orwell]

4. Chin Up

Nice intentions. Way to keep a positive attitude.

Glad you're not in my bunker... :eyes:

O

[GOPBasher]

9. Although I don't think we're taking back the house,

are you kidding? Polls consistently show the Dems with an advantage on a generic ballot. I think we may possibly gain a seat or two, but basically I think it'll be a wash. I don't know why you think we're going to lose so many seats.

[dusty64]

10. Yeah, lets all

just roll over and play dead (great strategy!). I think we've got as good a chance as ever considering the complete mess the rethugs have made in such a short time and the fact they don't even hide the fact that they are completely bought and paid for corporate minions. If we can present a positive agenda for the Country and unify around it )for once), I think we've got a VERY good chance.

[mndemocrat_29]

11. There is no way that we're going to lose 20-25 seats

Yes, we'll lose a couple in Texas, but we'll certainly make up for them in another dozen or so seats that are being targeted by the DCCC. I see gains for the Democrats in the upcoming election.

[MonicaR]

20. Matsui is on target

Stuart Rothenberg basically said the same thing in a Roll Call article several months ago. The stars are aligning for another seismic shift in national politics, but this time in the Democrats favor a la 1994.

[rockymountaindem]

25. Why don't you *ever* have anything positive to say?

[leyton]

6. I think we need something like Contract for America.

Heck, I'd even go for a balanced-budget amendment and a 50% reduction of all Republican committee staffs.

But I think what made Gingrich so successful was that he was able to attack the entire House and portray it as an institution that was completely corrupted by the Democrats who had controlled it for so long. We'll have a hard time doing that particularly, but a national message (crystallized in a document a la Contract with America) would definitely help.

Of course, Kerry will have a large impact on this. So if we can somehow bring local Democrats along with him, we might have a front that's united enough to score some victories or at least raise public awareness. The flip side is that candidates in conservative districts will have to run away from Kerry.

[notbush]

8. What Gingrich did won't easily be done again soon.

He took advantage of the Democrats holding the house for 40 years...and in the last 2 years before the republican takeover, we had some long term democrats who abused the system......The house bank, the house dining room, committee staff..paid but never there.
Rosty, probably the most powerful democrat at the time (Jim Wright had been forced to resign), went to prison.
Yes, even democrats, when given complete power can abuse it....
This isn't flame bait, it's a sad truth.

[leyton]

12. You are right, it is a sad truth.

I agree wholeheartedly - Democrats and Republicans alike can be corrupt.

I hope we can at least make significant gains in the House though.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

19. Gingrich used the principles of propaganda VERY effectively

He maded the word "liberal" into a dirty word among many other things...

[MonicaR]

21. Another Strategy

What Kerry needs to do is hammer the Repugnicans on their 10 years in power and remind this country that the last time we had control of all three branches we jumped started the 90's economic boom.

He needs to say early and often: I need a Democratic Congress to help turn this country around from Bush misrule..

[dorktv]

13. You know, I am running against a man who only votes

party, yet he never has been taken down. (this is not going to be a fair fight and I know it is not a targeted race) My run is because I truly believe, regardless if I win, I will have helped the people of Arizona. They deserve better and so does America. I can do no less then to stand up to Hayworth, because no one really has.
It is all about being willing to stand up and fight. Unless the Democratic party is willing to do that, we are going to keep losing.

[dusty64]

14. Good for you

and best of luck. Is that the POS who is always on the Pravda shows? He is repulsive.

[dorktv]

17. Is that guy ugly and used to be fat but now is thin

thanks to (rumoured) Brazilian gastic bypass surgery? (I have heard that he went out of country for the surgery)

[Wabbajack]

15. You should email

http://www.politics1.com/ amd tell them you're running. No one is listed as running against Hayworth now.

[dorktv]

16. Thanks! Just did.