gerrymandering states

[ButterflyBlood]

What states could we gerrymander to lean more in our favor? The Democrats did a nice job with California and Maryland last session. What could we do in Illinois? Is there some way to eliminate at least one of the Republican seats in New Mexico? I also think New Jersey could be improved, even though in 2002 Rush Holt's seat was protected.

[Hippo_Tron]

1. Louisiana...

I'm FAIRLY sure that both houses of the legislature are controlled by dems but I could be mistaken. Somebody might want to check on this.

[NewJerseyDem]

2. New Jersey has an independent bipartisan commission for redistricting

The state constitution clearly only allows redistricting every 10 years. However, you can gerrymander the districts after a census if you get the one independent on the commission to side with you like the independent on the legislative redistricting commission did in 2000 which gave democrats control of the legislature.

We could definitely pick up a seat or two in Illinois but it is hard to do there because the Daleys care more about securing power and seniority for the Chicago area than picking up democratic seats.

We might be able to something in New Mexico but right now both incumbent republicans are somewhat vulnerable. The democrats could probably oust Heather Wilson but it would probably result in a very safe seat for Steve Pearce and any redistricting could backfire and Wilson could survive anyway.

I also understand that Louisiana and Oklahoma could be gerrymandered but that could backfire against the conservative state democratic parties who want to distance themselves from helping the more liberal national party.

[Doomsayer13]

3. It's not just the Daleys

All Illinois Democrats know that if Denny Hastert isn't Speaker anymore, the entire state suffers. It's sad, but it's that simple. Hastert brings home the pork, plain and simple, so it's to Illinois's benefit if he stays speaker. That and old codgers like Henry Hyde are also influential in congress. In addition, Ilinois is a Democratic state now, but the state isn't so nearly lopsided liberal as Texas is lopsided conservative. IL Repubs are just waiting for something to get them out of their post-Ryan comatose.

However, there's rumor that Hastert is thinking of retiring in 2006 or 2008. Once he's out of the delegation, IL Dems will probably have an easier time getting rid of a few Republicans.

[NewJerseyDem]

4. True

I do feel that the people of Illinois would be more hostile to re-redistricting by democrats thant the Texans are to it by republicans.

I would say, though, that it is almost as lopsided because Bush only got 59% in Texas while Gore got 55% in Illinois. That's pretty close condidering that Bush is FROM Texas and that probably got him at least a few percentage points more than a non-Texan would get. But, maybe they some republican Texans just knew how incompetent Bush is and didn't want him to be President.

[Bucky]

5. If Bush didn't break 60% here in Texas, it's not b/c of wary Republicans

He did better running for Governor, iirc. But in 2000 he ran a culture-centric campaign. In the midwest that may pass for bipartisan, but people in Texas know that "culture values" and "leadership" are code words for the hard right. When he ran for governor in 1998 he ran as a centrist and as a not-Clinton, which is more popular than hard rightism.

Based on those numbers, I don't think Bush got any favorite son votes in 2000. In Texas we either love him or we want him the hell out of office. There's not a lot of middle-ground where Bunnypants is concerned.