ARG numbers for 1-15

[OKNancy]

ARG numbers are in:

Clark - 24

Dean - 29

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[Renew Deal]

1. Holy SHIT!!!

:wow::wow::wow::wow::wow:

[DancingBear]

2. I knew you'd beat me to it!

But let me be the first to say: Yeee-hawwwwww!!!!!

[OKNancy]

7. LOL

ARG seems to be really regular lately. I just checked once at 8:35 and there they were.

Just think back one month ago. I get great pleasure from this, not so much because of the Dean supporters, but from the talking heads. People like Tony Blankley and Novak and others who said that Clark was a nobody or dead. They just have no idea how strong the Clark campaign is, and they and others underestimate the grassroots support he has.

[DancingBear]

15. I was in NH in mid - Dec

When it was Dean 45% and Clark 8%. After returning, I wrote a post saying how I thought the Dean support was really soft, and was operating primarily on name recognition and saturation coverage. I think I was the only one who believed it. :)

I will be going back to NH on the 22nd, and working through the primary. I am literally counting the days, and if anyone on DU wants to come on along, PM me! I'll set you up with the appropriate people, I'll find housing for you if I can, I'll do whatever it takes to get Wes Clark in the White House.

GO, WES, GO!!!!

[Renew Deal]

I hope to head up there this weekend.

I will try, but I don't know.

[Kahuna]

25. Thanks Dancing Bear!!!!

:yourock: I hope they still have some "American Son" videos for you to hand out! :bounce:

[KittyWampus]

21. Things Change- They Also Pronounced Kerry As Dead

so I'm just saying... let's not get all cocky.

But for now, I will say that Clark is running a VERY GOOD CAMPAIGN.

Clark himself has got the hang of it... it's been interesting watching him improve so steadily.

[Kahuna]

26. No cockiness here. There is a prayer chain for General Clark...

I'm still on pins and needles. But I'm keeping the faith.

[Hawkeye-X]

56. Once Dean captures Iowa

the ARG poll will be moot. Clark will drop to 3rd or 4th.

The momentum with Dean and Kerry at close 2nd will bump Clark to 3rd or 4th because he didn't even bother to show up for the Iowa debates and will be eviscrated in the NH debates as to WHY the "General" didn't even bother to show up. The General is just like Bush -- trying to avoid public scrutiny to appear "clean" when he really isn't. The General is dirty as hell, and those Clark folks are still in denial.

Hawkeye-X

[ringmastery]

3. buyer's remorse

or Dean's remorse?

This could be one hell of a competitive primary.

[blm]

6. Yep. I see a Kerry, Clark, Edwards ticket coming on.

With any combination of those three.

Good for Democrats. That is the combo to beat Bush.

[OKNancy]

8. Just think

Dean = 29%
Not Dean = 71%

[Kahuna]

12. Well! When you put it that way..

:evilgrin:

[Renew Deal]

10. I'll take any one of them.

Though I still think Clark is the best. Those three stand for something and have good ideas.

[SW FL Dem]

61. Same here

My top three are Clark, Kerry and Edwards.

[Kahuna]

11. Yep. Those are my top three. Of course, Wes is Best!!!!!

:D

[jumptheshadow]

31. Clark/Kerry or Kerry/Clark

I can feel it in my old Democratic bones.

Great mo for Clark but he's not going to win it. Naw, Dean has too strong an infrastructure in New Hampshire. Dean's support will hang on, he will get those new voters, and he will prevail. But this is going to be a fascinating primary season.

[flpoljunkie]

52. Race in New Hampshire remains "unsettled" according to ARG.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

"The race remains unsettled because likely Democratic primary voters tell us that they want - and would switch to - a candidate they believe can defeat George W. Bush. They are still looking for the candidate who makes the most convincing argument for victory in November."

[TexasSissy]

58. I agree. Once they get to the south---should be interesting.

And I will vote for any of those three, gladly! (Of course, I'm rooting for my man, Clark)

[elsiesummers]

59. I agree - it's those three

And I think they are all terrific and have great positions.

But I'm pulling for Edwards. He has a level of enthusiasm and common man appeal - "it" quality of a winner that make him a great GE candidate.

[returnable]

4. Wow

Big :kick:

[maddezmom]

5. Kerry and Edwards +2

3-Day Results Jan 9-11 Jan 10-12 Jan 11-13 Jan 12-14

Braun 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clark 19% 20% 22% 24%
Dean 36% 34% 32% 29%
Edwards 3% 3% 3% 5%
Gephardt 4% 4% 4% 4%
Kerry 10% 11% 13% 15%
Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 1%
Lieberman 10% 9% 9% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 17% 18% 16% 15%

Sample size 616 621 623 622

Democrats 425 430 435 435
Undeclared 191 191 188 187
Undeclared (%) 31% 31% 30% 30%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
Methodology

[DakotaDemocrat]

54. Look at Kerry...

Looks like he's coming back from the dead...From 10% to 15%

Kerry +5
Clark +5
Edwards +2
Lieberman -2
Undecided -2
Dean -7


In New Hampshire's case, Dean may have DROPPED too soon...He still has time to knock them around...

[RDANGELO]

9. This Shows

Not only is Clark going to do well here, he could win. He has the mo.

[mouse7]

13. That's the aftereffects of the Sharpton BS charge

You did know the Dean numbers would take a hit for a bit. They'll settle back down.

[Renew Deal]

14. But Clark wasn't in the debate

and he is still going up. I think the news is in on it too.

[DancingBear]

27. Ah, the "Alices Restaurant mass-a-cre" theory, eh?

:) :)

Personally, speaking from the experience of living there for 12 years, I don't think most of New Hampshire gives a rat's backside about what Sharpton said. They are looking at who can best beat Bush, and coming to answers that don't start with the letter "H".

It's gonna get interesting in the next week - that's for sure.

[Kahuna]

28. Maybe his "me too" on tax cuts after Clark announced his policy...

is the culprit. Voters hate, "me too" candidates. That foreign policy speech Dean gave while Clark was at the Hague was a disaster too. I'm still kicking myself for not recording it. It was a hoot. He probably didn't help his self out with that "Dixie Jesus" tour either.

[Renew Deal]

34. Also Bush is pissing off conservatives.

Some of these undeclared republicans like Clark more because he is being labeled as a republican.

[Jerseycoa]

43. Well, maybe

you give Sharpton too much credit. He's more of a hero on DU than out in the real world.

[11cents]

50. I really don't think the *NH* voters cared about the Sharpton charge!

(Which was indeed BS.)

The voters of NH are quite aware of what the Vermont demographics are -- they're not much different from the NH demographics.

In general, it's offbase to think that any remark from any of these lameass "debates" is going to shift many votes.

[Mattforclark]

16. Oooooooooooooooooooooohh!

That's all I got to say about that.

[CMT]

17. read ARG analysis

Dean's core support remains at 30% at they are not budging. His soft support has either gone undecided or divided between Clark, Kerry, and Edwards. Women still are suspicious of Clark.

Clark is making progress, no doubt about it, but he also has had the state to himself for the last few weeks while Dean has been concentrating on Iowa.

A Dean victory in Iowa will help him in NH and if Kerry does well in Iowa it could propell him, not Clark in NH.

[Renew Deal]

20. Also, people are looking for a winner.

If Dean doesn't win Iowa, watch out.

[Bread and Circus]

23. Your analysis is shrewd and I can't argue w/ it....but boy this seems huge

I mean really huge!

New Hampshire may be up for grabs.

[Kahuna]

29. What the analysis leaves out is that after Iowa, some of the....

(depending on who loses) supporters of Kerry, Gep. Lieb and Edwards will flip to Clark and Dean. It depends on which way they go.

[Bread and Circus]

33. If Kerry does really well in Iowa, it will boost him in NH...I think...

[Kahuna]

38. You're right. Kerry could hurt us in NH if he wins IA..

On the other hand, it will hurt Dean too. :D

[SW FL Dem]

62. This woman supports Clark n/t

[Kahuna]

18. Wonder if that Bradley endorsement was the kiss of death?

}(

[Mattforclark]

19. Lieberman down 2

Good, I was a bit scared for a while.

[Kahuna]

22. Me too. Now Lieb will have to divert some of his Clark/Dean attacks..

to include Kerry and Edwards.

[Renew Deal]

24. Lieberman needs to go down

For the good of all the candidates.

[Kahuna]

30. That "American Son" video is a great campaign tool.. It will be hard..

to compete with.

[RandomUser]

32. "American Son" is really making it's influence felt

I encourage everyone to view it. Whether you like Clark or not, it will show you exactly why Clark's rising. And if you're undecided, you should definitely view it before deciding.

http://clark04.com/americanson/

[meow mix]

35. wewt

i like new hampshirans more every day =)

[Kathleen04]

36. Whoa..

Whoa!! Excellent news, but unexpected... :)

Both Clark and Kerry are gaining...wowza..

Margin between Dean and Clark..5 points closer in one day!

[in_cog_ni_to]

37. WOW!

:wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow:

Go, Wes!

[jumptheshadow]

39. 15 percent undecided

I wonder who they will break for?

I wonder what the demographics of the undecided voters are.

[Rowdyboy]

40. But wait, Wes didn't debate and that was gonna kill him because

EVERYONE is watching the Democratic "joint press conferences"(I refuse to call them debates). What happened?

And didn't Jeanne Shaheen tell all those people two days ago that Clark was a Republican? Weren't they listening? I don't understand. Does this mean voters might be able to think for themselves without the party telling them who's a "real Democrat"?

Clark-24 Dean-29 in NH... Clark up significantly, Dean down significantly. I should sign off DU for the rest of the day right now. It's not gonna get any better than this.

Thanks, Nancy.

[Kahuna]

41. All of those Wes is a repuke attacks must be working too...

AGAINST his opponents. :D

[maddezmom]

42. looks like the new line of attack is Clark is a repug

only problem is, it's the same one they've been using all along. So far it's not working. :)

[Kahuna]

44. Ha ha. We posted the same thing at the same time... Only..

I was a teeny bit faster. :D

[jumptheshadow]

45. And this is only the primary

Just think what will happen during the General Election.

[OKNancy]

46. No the problem is that just about every one of the viable

candidates have been called a Republican or something close to it. It reminds me of crying wolf too often.

You know what else is funny. The RNC is having a hissy fit about Clark. Calling him the most liberal Bush hater out there and people should wake up. Check out their website.

[jumptheshadow]

49. Ha!

Clark is the most liberal Bush hater out there? It must be part of that RNC PNAC plot to put one of their own in office. They are brilliant, I tell you, they're brilliant...

[Jerseycoa]

47. You'd think

They would rethink. :eyes:

[Kahuna]

48. LOL!

Aren't you just the clever little goose. :pals:

[windansea]

51. ba da bing!

having this for breakfast with my coffee

way to go Wes and supporters!!

[Bucky]

53. Clark: All horse (but please be careful about hats in the future, general)

This feels really nice. I hope this encourages more Democrats to take a look at this man.

[Rowdyboy]

55. Arg numbers from 1/2-1/4 2004 Dean 39% Clark 12% Kerry 14%

So, since 1/2/004 Dean has dropped from 39% to 29% (lost 1/4 of his support)
Clark has risen from 12% to 24% (doubled his support)
and Kerry has gone from 14% to 15% (maintained and slightly improved)

That's the movement in New Hampshire since 1/2/2004. I must say, I'm happy to be supporting the candidate I'm backing. Certainly, a Kerry win in Iowa could really upset things, but right now, Clark is doing a superior job.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

57. Kerry moving up slowly in NH

Iowa will give him a needed spark.

[mzmolly]

60. Considering Clark's been focused only on NH, I'd say this isn't surprising

Clark 19% 20% 22% 24%
Dean 36% 34% 32% 29%

Clark isn't doing well in Iowa. ;)

[SW FL Dem]

63. WOW

Great news! Glad to see Clark and Kerry moving up.