Kerry leads by 1 pt in Iowa

[sandnsea]

Wohooo!! But with the margin of error, we've got a 4 way dead heat in Iowa. Very interesting and exciting few days coming up. Good luck to everyone!

Des Moines, January 15, 2003 - We've just gotten some new numbers in from a Zogby Poll. It shows that John Kerry is now in the lead at 22 percent. Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt are tied at second place with 21 percent. And John Edwards is coming in at 17 percent. So if the poll holds, it would show that times are changing for the campaign.

The Margin of error is +/- 4.5%

http://www.whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1601723

[David Dunham]

1. DEAN IS GOING DOWN; KERRY IS TOPS

Iowa Dems are smart. They won't follow Dean like lemmings over a cliff and give Bush the election. Kerry will be a great caucus winner and nominee.

[jmaier]

2. You don't miss

a thread do you?

[David Dunham]

4. No, I Don't Want Dems to Be Lemmings

[jmaier]

9. I'm sure that they are attending carefully

to your well reasoned arguments. :eyes:

[mouse7]

14. Posting basically nothing on every thread essense of lemming behavior

I threw up a thread about John Adams can't win, and you put 3 anti-Dean shouts on that.

A thread pops up. You post.
A thread pops up. You post.

That's what lemmings do. Rote repetition of behavior.

[DjTj]

26. The essence of lemming behavior is following others to certain doom...

...I think rote repetition behavior is what robots do.

So criticize him for robot behavior.

Lemming behavior would be like blindly following a candidate just because others are doing it...

[LuminousX]

3. Interesting implication

[sandnsea]

5. I was trying hard not to gloat

So let's not, kay?

[LuminousX]

8. A small amount of gloating is okay and earned

Kerry lived up to his reputation and fought back hard in Iowa. He has retaken his frontrunner status.

[sandnsea]

17. I'll wait until Monday night

When we win the whole enchilada, look the fuck out!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Then, it's back to work and on to NH.

[arewethereyet]

11. Good news for he Kerry camp ! way to go !

and I like where my boy Edwards is in that mix as well.

Monday should be really fun !

Kerry has been working his butt off, glad to see some acknwledgement.

[AP]

25. What exactly is Kerry doing to move like this? I suspect it's stuff you'd

only see in Iowa. Commercials? What are they saying. He's doing something that's working really well and I'm not seeing it from here. I'd love to know what it is.

What is it???

[sandnsea]

32. I really don't know

Organization perhaps. The AG is the highest vote getter in Iowa and has been AG since 1978. Kerry got the Ag Secy today, plus Christie Vilsack Monday. People are finally having to settle on a choice maybe. He's really been turning on the charm the last few times I've seen him on C-Span. He is really connecting with people one on one. Spending lots of time with people, taking a personal interest. But I honestly don't know and I would bet money the campaign won't put it out in an email either!

[WiseMen]

35. Kerry's Record of Service is Finally Getting Attention - And Editorials

[AP]

45. True. Veterans have been turning out for him, and getting publicity doing

it.

[Renew Deal]

37. Kerry was peoples first choice.

They went with the hype of Dean and came back. Let's see if it sticks.

[Kahuna]

61. You mean, "date Dean, marry Kerry?"

:evilgrin:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

49. I think the biggest factor is Kerry's campaigning on the ground

combined with the organization, which according to the NY Times today, has been able to turn out large crowds for Kerry's events, even in small towns -- and not just crowds of supporters, large numbers of uncommitted and wavering voters. Those are the people you have to reach, there is only so much value in preaching to the converted. But story after story lately seems to emphasize Kerry really winning peoples support by simply convincing them he's the right man for the job. I guess Kerry can't go one on one with every voter in America but it seems like if he could, the job would be his...

[WiseMen]

15. Caution Required! What matters in IOWA is Organization and Passion

Dean has his people nailed down already. Unless Kerry can pull 5 points ahead, he will likely still loose to Dean or Gephart who have large groups for door-to-door operations.

[sandnsea]

47. Kerry has vets and firefighters

He's got 1/3 of the State Legislature, the Attorney General, Ag Secy and Christie Vilsack. I am more confident in his ability to get out the vote than anybody else.

[Jerseycoa]

6. Congratulations

Iowa has really been some ride. :toast:

[windansea]

7. congrats sandnsea

you are the staunchest JK supporter here

good to see him making a comeback!!

[Renew Deal]

10. Kerry and his supporters have worked hard through great adversity.

And it seems to be paying off. Good job keeping the hope.

[zulchzulu]

12. This is just the beginning

I'm Iowa-bound on Friday and hope to be part of the Victory Party in Des Moines on Monday night!

[adadem]

42. I'm with you

in spirit...thanks for your hard work. Wish I could go, too...will be phone banking instead. Have tons of fun.

[flpoljunkie]

63. Zulchzulu, hope to hear from you about your great Iowa adventure.

You are absolutely right. This is just the beginning.

The race is really tight, but I like the way the Zogby poll is trending.

And I really like this Zogby quote today: "Could John Kerry be the best closer since Baseball Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley? 

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. Organize, organize, organize then 'get hot' at the end

that's the way to win elections.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

41. How does he deal with that swarming crowd?

Now I understand the importance of battle-hardened nerves of steel.

[Crunchy Frog]

16. Congratulations Kerry people!

He's a good man, and he has definitely replaced Dean as my second choice.:toast:

[kayleybeth]

18. Damn!! Way to go Kerry!!

I'm a Clark supporter but this is a really impressive showing for Kerry!
Congratulations, that is awesome!!!!

[EllieDem]

20. Kerry has been MOST impressive lately

calm, cool, collected and looking VERY presidential!!!!

[kayleybeth]

33. Agreed

I saw Kerry on a CSPAN program this morning and I was very impressed. General Clark is my first choice but I would also be SO proud to have Kerry for my president. The more I see of him the more I like him. Same with John Edwards. Again, congrats! Great effort in Iowa!

[BurtWorm]

19. How many people were polled, out of curiosity.

:hi:

[WiseMen]

38. MOE indicates 500-600. That is what I heard. But only 1/3 Polled

each day and then the results are averaged with 2 prior days.

[David Dunham]

21. It Looks Like Dean's Negative Ads are Backfiring

Dean's continuing fall in the polls in Iowa shows that his Angry Dean negative advertising is backfiring. He did better in the polls when he was a self-proclaimed pin cushion.

[isbister]

27. Those tv tapes from Canada probably didn't go over well either

and the press has been on him like a gorilla on a banana.

Well, polls are polls and they're hardly ever 100% correct. No votes have been cast and its too early for the fat lady to begin even warming up, nevermind sing :-).

[bowens43]

57. More like Kerry and Gerhardt's

smear campaigns are working. Kerry and Gephardt have drastically lowered the bar on what is acceptable.

[KaraokeKarlton]

22. enjoy it while it lasts

;)

[David Dunham]

23. Dean Should Enjoy Second Rather Than Tomorrow's Third Place

[EllieDem]

24. I'm leaning towards Kerry.....

but I have a concern. If Kerry won the presidency, leaving his senate seat open - does Mitt Romney get to appoint someone temporarily to his seat? Or how does it work in Massachusetts? (Remember Mitt is a GOP)

[sandnsea]

36. Just elect a President

Let Teddy Kennedy take care of Mitt Romney and the Senate seat!

[JohnKleeb]

48. They'll find a replacement for him if hes the nom

All those democratic representives lol one has gotta wanna be senator. Personally I am glad to see Kerry making a rise in the polls, I really like and admire him for first serving his country but then coming home and leading a movement against the war, investgating Iran-Contra, plus hes great on the environment and seems to want to reform our drug policies.

[isbister]

50. Mitt better worry about his own seat

cause we're sending him back to Utah ASAP

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. Combined with the Harkin endorsement, that oughta do it!

[slinkerwink]

29. the sample for today is 164 people.....I wouldn't trust this daily poll

[Renew Deal]

31. The other polls have been trending this way.

That's partly why it is being taken seriously. Zogby felt Kerry would pass Dean soon.

[sandnsea]

34. That's the same polling we've had all week

Sorry, that's the way it goes. Like I said, 4 pt moe, it's a statistical four way race.

[Maddy McCall]

39. Dean definitely has become stuck in a rut, poll-wise

And Gephardt and Kerry are experiencing upward momentum. These are the same polls that the people here who like to post daily poll results have been citing, so it is good news for Kerry and Gep fans.

I am a Clark supporter but would like to see Kerry or Gep best Dean in Iowa, even though strategically it would hurt Clark.

At any rate, congrats to Kerry supporters. :bounce:

[George_Bonanza]

30. Way to stick it in there Sandnsea

[David Dunham]

40. Gep on Meet the Press Sunday; Will Blast Dean Again

Dick Gephardt will be on Meet the Press on Sunday and once again will take the gloves off and go after Dean big time, like Gep did on Wednesday. Kerry will stay above the fray again and be the beneficiary of Gep's attacks on Dean. Go Kerry Go!!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

46. It seems like a lot of Iowans

have rejected Gephardt as representing the past, and Dean as a false saviour, and Kerry and Edwards are both getting a second look. They are both gaining but Kerry is gaining faster.

[tameszu]

43. Congrats Kerry supporters

(Even though this is very scary for Clark supporters...or at least very confusing...I don't even know what to think if Kerry-Dean-Gep in IA leads to Kerry-Clark-Dean in NH)

[DjTj]

44. This is the post-debate bounce...

...for both John and John.

I don't think Dean came off all that well in the last debate, and since this poll is Monday-Wednesday, it is the first completely post-debate poll.

Kerry and Edwards have had a bunch of good news in the early part of this week after being almost completely ignored by the press, so this shows that they're moving up.

[La_Serpiente]

51. All the candidates are awesome

Everyone is within margin of error. Anything could happen.

This is going to be a great Iowa caucus.

[JI7]

52. NO NO NO

as much as i love to see this. i have usually hated the whole poll thing. i'm waiting until monday and i can't get really excited until i see results on monday. but as always i am proud to support john kerry no matter what polls show and that will never change.

[cindyw]

62. I'm with you my friend

Let's back off the polls, even though it is a nice feeling. I saw on C-span that Trippi said a loss would excite people. I wouldn't expect him to say anything else, but who knows. Dean's support makes no sense to me so who knows how Iowa and NH will turn out. That being said.

GOOOOO Kerrrrrrrryyyyyy!!!!!!!

[molly]

67. Great pic!

[jpgray]

53. It must be the new haircut

Excellent news for Kerry, and I'm so glad one of my favorites other than Dean is back in the running. I suppose Iowa can't be Dean/Kerry/Kucinich, in any order. :(

[jumptheshadow]

54. Great news

I'm a Clark supporter, but hold deep respect for Kerry and believe he would make a fine president.

[Printer70]

55. WTF

I have doubts about this poll. I'll wait for a second to confirm but I doubt that will happen.

[WealthAndDemocracy]

56. I wouldn't mind

seeing Kerry come out of Iowa looking good.

I wouldn't mind that at all.

This is getting interesting ......

[Rhiannon12866]

58. I like both Kerry and Gephardt

Iowa is a real horse-race, so we haven't seen the end of this, yet.:-)

[wyldwolf]

59. Congratulations on my #2 choice! Looks like it's now a race in Iowa...

..and NH!

[Ivote]

60. This is the start

of something good. Good luck to all the candidates in Iowa. May the best man win. Sorry not to have Carol their with you. But you did a great job in getting our message out.
Greetings from NH, The General is waiting for you all.

[molly]

64. HURRAY!!

:kick:

:bounce:

[spooky3]

65. Good showing for Edwards!!!!

[spooky3]

66. let's hope that this means MORE MEDIA COVERAGE

for the Democrats.

[stickdog]

68. The nomination is now Kerry's to lose! (nt)

[poskonig]

69. Good News!

I hope this translates into press coverage.