Predictions y'all made for DC

[Bucky]

A few weeks ago I requested predictions for the DC "protest" primary from yesterday. Here's the guesser and their guesses:


Dean .Sharp. Braun .Kucinich . chumps
. 45% . . 20% . . 25% . - 0 -. . . Bucky
. 27% . . 11% . . 38%. . 20% . . . Deesh
. 55% . . 15% . - 0 -. . 10% . . . Daboy
. 52% . . 29% . . 21% . - 0 -. . . Goobergunch *
. 55% . . 30% . - 0 -. . 10% . . . Kathleen04

Texas Patriot's predictions don't even fit on this table (he forgot that Clark and Gephardt weren't running in the District), but his 31-24-12 call for Dean, Clark, and Gep was the furthest off the mark. This gives me the distinction of being the most accurate Texan in this guessing game.

The actual results were controversial, prodding the US Supreme Court to determine that George Bush won. But based on hanging chad counts, the totals were:

Dr. Dean - 42.7% (17,736)
Sharpton - 34.3% (14,248)
CM Braun - 11.6% (4,824)
D Kucinich - 8.3% (3,435)


As you can see, none of our guessers was particularly close to the final results of the race. But Goobergunch was closest, missing the percentage for the top three vote getters by an average of 8 percentage points per candidate (Dean by 9 points, Sharpton by 5, and Braun by 9), or a total offage of 24 points. He's the only guesser to get the top three in the right order.

Second place goes to Kathleen 04 whose total offage was 28.2 points, missing Dean by 12, Sharpton by 4, and Braun by 13.

The rest of us need to go back to remedial citizenship class lest we forfeit our prognosticator's licenses.

[goobergunch]

1. /me determines to exactly what extent he should gloat

I pwn j00 all!

:evilgrin:

[KoKo]

2. Fun post! Good to see that you remembered this!

Thanks!

[arcos]

3. Very interesting...

are you planning to do the same for Iowa and NH?

[Bucky]

4. Yes. In one week I'll announce the Iowa winner and renew the call for NH

People can renew/revise their NH predictions. I have about 30 on-the-record predictions for who the top three finishers in Iowa are going to be. It's starting to look like those of us who predicted bad things for John Kerry a/o didn't see the Edwards surge there are going to fare poorly. But we'll see... This year anything can and is about to happen.

[arcos]

6. Is it too late for my prediction?

IO: Dean 26%, Edwards 24%, Kerry 23%, Gephardt 22%.

NH: Dean 30%, Clark 26%, Kerry 20%, Edwards 13%.

[Bucky]

7. No, Arocs. I'll add your predictions to my data base.

And then I will laugh when you are wrong and I am right. Here, I'll get started laughing at you right now.

Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha.

( heh )

[Bucky]

5. Yes. In one week I'll announce the Iowa winner and renew the call for NH

People can renew/revise their NH predictions. I have about 30 on-the-record predictions for who the top three finishers in Iowa are going to be. It's starting to look like those of us who predicted bad things for John Kerry a/o didn't see the Edwards surge there are going to fare poorly. But we'll see... This year anything can and is about to happen.