(AP) Kerry improves position in recent NH poll

[DJcairo]

John Kerry Improves in New Hampshire Poll

By ELIZABETH WOLFE
The Associated Press
Thursday, December 18, 2003; 3:41 PM


WASHINGTON - Howard Dean maintained his grip on the top spot in New Hampshire, but presidential rival John Kerry inched up slightly, according to a survey of likely Democratic primary voters.



Forty-five percent of those questioned preferred Dean as the party's nominee, the same as two weeks ago. But Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, solidified his spot at No. 2, rising from 13 percentage points to 20 percentage points, within weeks of the state's Jan. 27 primary.

The poll, released Thursday by American Research Group in Manchester, N.H., shows Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman battling for third, with the support of 8 percent and 6 percent.

A poll released Dec. 3 showed Kerry essentially tied with Clark, who had 11 percent. The undecideds remained at 15 percent.

Another noticeable change was Dean's unfavorable rating, which more than doubled from 7 percent to 19 percent, perhaps attributable to rivals' stepped-up criticism of the former Vermont governor and a series of negative ads. Lieberman had an unfavorable rating of 40 percent, behind only Al Sharpton's 51 percent.

Dean's 72 percent favorable rating remained steady, up 3 percentage points.

The New Hampshire phone survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Dec. 15-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12310-2003Dec18.html

[MaineDem]

1. Good news!

Thank you. :)

[WiseMen]

2. Only Way For Clear choice is 2-man race. Then Debates Will be Meaningful

[molly]

3. Great news!

January is less than 2 weeks away - that's when things will take off!

[Nicholas_J]

4. Other info...

SHIELDS AND BROOKS

December 19, 2003




JIM LEHRER: How do you read it?

DAVID BROOKS: Dean is still ahead but there are some straws in the way. John Kerry is doing suddenly well in Iowa, according to a poll. If he suddenly crashes through and does okay against Dean in Iowa, that transforms the whole race. Dean's volunteering, the rate of people joining the campaign has flattened. That is a sign that possibly there is a ceiling. And there is a poll this week saying how many people in this country, registered voters, strongly dislike Bush or hate him, and that's 22 percent of the country. You can't win with 22 percent. And I think there's been - the establishment Democratic Party, as Mark said, has finally cohered into an argument against Dean. They're not driving for his jugular yet but their mixture of fear and what he may do to the party and attraction to him because of what he says is now much more complicated.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/political_wrap/july-dec03/sb_12-19.html


Overall, the number of people who are supposed to have joined Dean's campaign online are about 500,000, but they have have stayed roughly at about this level for the last seven weeks, as indicated by Dean supporters on this site posting the numbers. And by following the numbers at Dean for America myself, it looks like at least Dean's support and volunteers online have virtually stopped increasing

One thing that not noted however, is that not all of the 500,000 that are listed as having joined Deans Internet campaign by signing up on his web-site or the blog actually support Dean. I signed onto the site well before any other candidate but Dean had stated that they were running for president, while others were waiting for Gore to decide is he was running or not. I , and others who do not support Dean are counted among Deans suporters when that number is given as an indication of those who support Dean. When I signed up, there were less than 30,000 people signed up. It is estimated that only half of that 500,000 number given actually support Dean, but like myself, many of those who signed up to Deans web site are not Dean supporters.

[Sean Reynolds]

5. Good news for Dean....

Shows that Dean didn't lose his support to Kerry, it was the other candidates.