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Rich: I'm of two minds about that. First, notice that they fell completely and utterly apart after they booted Rich? You can trace everything to that point.
Of course, that also marks the point that they added the horrible Jerri and Ethan to their tribe. Ethan actually costs his tribe challenges. I would never want him anywhere near my tribe.
Also, one has to decide how Rich is going to play the game. If he plays it the way he played it the first time, you could trust him. Remember, he never once betrayed anybody. And everything he's said since indicates that Colby, Kathy and Shii Ann were his chosen three to go to F4, and he was basically going to do to Colby what Tina did to him. Heh heh. So yeah, I guess it was a good idea, long term. But you have to get there.
When you're playing with the best player ever, the best strategy is often to attach yourself to them like a remora and ride them to the end, then try to leapfrog them to F2.
Thanks for the compliments on the article. It's the first time I've tried something like that, and I didn't get many emails (1, actually) commenting on it. I guess that means I didn't make any mistakes, but still. :shrug:
I think the Lex/Kathy vs RobMber dynamic is an interesting one. It's primarily based on Tom, actually, I think, and we're not being shown some deals being cut. Kathy started some deal making when she went over, probably. And Tom is involved.
What I think happened: Tom is willing to hook up with Kathy/Lex, but is not willing to betray RobMber too early. Many players have a thing about this. Loyalty and betrayal is often measured in how early or late you do it. So, betraying Rob or Amber next week would be too soon, but betraying them at F6 would be fine. Sort of an "I took you as far as I could" sort of thing.
So the thinking is, Lex/Kathy, Rob/Amber, Tom, Shii Ann for Final Six. Sorry, Rupert, Jenna, and Alicia. Alicia goes first. Jenna goes next, big crying scene. Rupert goes next, feeling betrayed. Shii Ann goes because she just doesn't have the skills, and is only hooked up with one dyad, Lex/Kathy.
This leaves Tom in the power position. He can pick which way to go, with L/K or R/A. Obviously, the smart thing to do is go L/K, because he secretly has a deal with Lex from way back in Africa. Hopefully, he actually does do the smart thing.
So Rob goes at F5, then Amber at F4. This leaves Lex, Kathy, and Tom at F3. At this point, who knows? If it's a standard endurance challenge, Tom is out quick. Kathy would seem to have the advantage, as women have won 9 of 11 endurance challenges, which have made up 6 of the last 7 Final Three challenges. The only Final Three endurance challenge won by a man was Season 5's Brian Heidik, who set things up so he was up against very weak competition. (The other man to win an endurance challenge was Keith Famey from Season 2, and Tina, the eventual winner, gave him that one.)
OTOH, in the two UK Survivors, I believe men have won most of the endurance challenges, which also ran much longer than the US challenges have. One they did, standing on poles in a river, actually ran 23 or 25 hours. After 18 or 20 hours, there were still 6 or 8 contestants standing. Those folks really fought for it.
Suffice to say, I have no idea. If Kathy wins, who knows? She's likely to take Tom, thinking he didn't play hard enough, so she deserves it. She may take Lex, sticking to her alliance.
If either of the guys wins, they may take the other guy, in which case Lex wins, I'm fairly sure. Lex could well win. He was likely to win the endurance challenge in Africa, had he not been up all night with dysentery. Ick.
Here I go, writing another article. I'm actually trying out scenarios for our fantasy league Final 9 contest I'm about to enter. I've got 48 hours to finish up my entry. :D
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