OK I am very confused as to what happened at the Pats - Colts game.

[Initech]

Can someone explain to me in layman's terms? What was Bill Belicheck's big fuck up? I dont get it.

[Chan790]

1. He turned over possession of the ball well inside his own defensive zone. n/m

[bluesbassman]

2. Conventional wisdom is to never "go for it" on 4th down when you are on your side of the 50.

And being on the 25 is unbelievable. I've been watching pro football for 35 years and I've never seen anything close to that.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. I thought it was the correct call

I expected Belichick to go for it, as soon as it reached 4th down. In Las Vegas I've dealt with estimated probability for more than 20 years. Often the true odds aren't remotely close to conventional wisdom. This is a classic example. New England was a considerable favorite to make the first down and end the game on 4th and short. They would have been roughly a 1/3 favorite. But if you kick it away I can't make it 50/50 that you stop Manning, no matter where he starts, with 2 minutes and one time out.

You can't apply the standard mindset, that's what I'm saying. All the analysts are looking at this from a tunnel vision view, i.e. what normally would be the correct choice from a mathematical standpoint. But Brady is your trigger man, not the typical QB. He's considerably more likely to make the first down and end the game than the average clown. And the other guy is Manning the dagger, plus New England's defense is young and on the road.

There was one similar situation I can think of. It was more debatable. Switzer went for 4th and 1 against the Eagles very late from his own 29 in the '90s and failed, while leading. He took relentless criticism. I'm sure the networks will eventually find that clip to use as an example of something comparable to tonight. Switzer's rationale was a huge wind was facing the Cowboys so a punt likely would go nowhere. Plus he had Emmitt Smith and the best offensive line in the league.

In that case I thought it was the wrong choice, but only slightly. Tonight I'd love to bet if they played out the scenario 100 times, New England would win a higher percentage by going for it and not punting.

[Chan790]

4. I think there is merit...

to the argument he really blew it earlier on that drive with the time-outs. If he'd had even one T/O left, it would have been reviewable. I watched it with 4 other people and honestly, watching it over and over...it was one of those reviews that could have gone either way we all agreed.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. They also blew it on the previous Colts drive

You can't afford to let them score before the 2 minute warning. That's always more vital than the announcers prefer to emphasize. The Patriots allowed a simple running play to bust into the end zone at about 2:30. If they stop one or two more plays then the Colts are under the 2 minute warning, which is like removing a time out.

The defensive intensity needs to be at apex when the lead is multiple scores. Once it gets down to one score then you're vulnerable, but there's a pathetic tendency for the defense to be lax when the late advantage is more than 8.

The biggest mistake of all was Brady targeting Faulk and not Welker on 4th down. I think I mentioned that in the Sports forum but not here. Watch the replay. Welker is cruising left to right over the middle, about 2 yards beyond the marker and open, cutting inside the linebacker. Brady somehow never looked for him, even though Welker is the best and most clever short yardage receiver in the league.

[KG]

8. considering the Pats had rolled up over 400 yds of offense to that point

the odds of getting 2 more wasn't that much of a stretch.

anyway, it's not a devestating loss - the Pats are 6-3, and have a 2.5 game lead in the AFCE with no real challengers.

[MilesColtrane]

5. His biggest fuck up is that cheezy little head band/ear warmer thingy he likes to wear.

[Ava83]

9. I think that is a part of it

It is also the sweatshirts with the arms cut out. ;)

[jobycom]

7. He didn't fuck up. He took a good risk and lost.

Belichick chose to trust his offense to get him two yards rather than trusting his defense to shut down a hot Colt's offense. If he had made the first down, he'd have kept Manning from getting the ball. If he had punted, he would have given Manning over two minutes to drive 60 or 70 yards for a touchdown. Belichick chose to gamble on his own team's strength.

I liked the call. It didn't work this time, but it's the kind of thing Belichick always does, and it's made him a very successful coach. You have to make your stand somewhere on the field. If it had worked everyone would be raving about the gutsy call. It was a gutsy call. The way Manning was playing late, they would have lost the game if they punted, too.