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To all you weather watchers, do you read the weather "discussion"?

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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-11-08 02:47 PM
Original message
To all you weather watchers, do you read the weather "discussion"?
Edited on Wed Jun-11-08 02:48 PM by CreekDog
All the weather talk in the lounge these past few days made me wonder if you would find this useful.

The forecast tells you only so much, but weather buffs read the forecaster's explanation of the forecast, which is a bit nerdy and technically written (and still much easier to read than years ago), but is interesting nonetheless.

First, I'm curious if you know what it is, second, if you read it.

And if you don't know, here's one easy way to find it:

1) go to weather underground (http://www.wunderground.com), put in the zip code of interest, click the search button
2) scroll down the bottom of the forecasts
3) click "scientific forecaster discussion"
(you can get it through your National Weather Service webpage too-it is your government meteorologists with the NWS that write it)

here's our discussion for today:

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=MTR&StateCode=CA&SafeCityName=South_San_Francisco

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area California
933 am PDT Wednesday Jun 11 2008


Discussion...as of 9:30 am PDT Wednesday...very high fire danger
expected to continue into Thursday.


Obviously main story and concern for the shift remains fire weather
concerns as very dry conditions along with gusty winds especially
over the East Bay hills...North Bay mountains...and Diablo Range
will keep things very Dicey through all day today and into
much of Thursday. Winds this morning are still gusting to
impressive numbers over the typically windy spots such as Mount
Diablo and los Vaqueros. First issue to deal with today is the Wind
Advisory for the hills and Diablo Range that is in place until
noon. Although the gradients are coming down...latest gusts for those
locations are showing little sign of diminishing...so that product
may be extended through the afternoon hours. Next concern is the
red flag warning. With continued support for at least breezy
conditions in the higher elevations along with extremely low relative humidity
values...see no reason to modify the current product. Biggest
question for that product is whether or not to extend it into
Friday morning. Although support aloft will be very limited...the
models are still showing an offshore event shaping up with a
potential of between a 7 and 10 mb difference at the surface from
rno to sfo. Not only would this keep winds up...it would mean very
little relative humidity recovery during the overnight hours. After conference call
this morning...inclination is to keep things going into Friday.
Will coordinate with sto before making a final call on that.


Further out...the Strom track stays well to the north while at the
surface temperatures will increase. Most interior area will be in the
90s with the hottest spots in southern Monterey County getting up to
105.
&&


Aviation...as of 10:45 am PDT Wednesday...VFR conditions through
Thursday. Afternoon winds at sfo becoming gusty to 25 knots. Localized
low level wind shear possible near the East Bay hills.


&&


Fire weather...as of 3:30 am PDT Wednesday...red flag warning
remains in effect for gusty north winds and poor humidity recoveries
for north and East Bay hills. The red flag warning has been extended
through Thursday afternoon due to the combination of very low
humidities and offshore winds. Humidities were as low as 6-7 percent
this afternoon and are expected to recover to at or below 30 percent
overnight.


&&


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories...
... Warning...pt Arena to Pigeon Point 20-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...remainder of coastal waters
Small Craft Advisory...rough bar conditions for San Francisco bar
.Tda through Thursday afternoon....red flag warning
for the north and East Bay hills.
... Advisory for the north and East Bay hills through
noon.


$$


Public forecast: Bell
aviation/marine: west pi
fire weather: Anderson




National Weather Service on the web at weather.Gov/sanfrancisco

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