When do you think the Singularity will happen?

[brainshrub]

I've been thinking about the Technological Singularity. (TS) I haven't decided if it's rapture-theology for geeks, or something that could happen.

For those of you who don't know, the Singularity is:

... the hypothesized creation, usually via AI or brain-computer interfaces, of smarter-than-human entities who rapidly accelerate technological progress beyond the capability of human beings to participate meaningfully in said progress.

Supposedly, this event s supposed to happen between now and 2030.

Whether Technological Singularity is good or not depends on whom you ask. Some say the machines will squish us like bugs, others say it will be the dawn of a new age - were humans will become practiaclly immortal.

What do you think? Is TS bunk or not? If not, when do you think it will happen?

[Fire Walk With Me]

1. Well, let's hope that we can take care of ourselves well enough

and muddle through the obstacles, in order to get to the point where it might occur.

The "Stupid Humans" factor hasn't been considered in the Singularity equation.

[Guaranteed]

2. Not likely.

To begin with, the human brain is itself a pretty amazing "invention." I'm not sure it will ever be surpassed- at least by our own making- in its intricacy and sophistication.

Secondly- we also have to remember that all of the inventions that we create are subject to that very same creation that is the human brain. I'm not certain that sophistication of technology can go anywhere but down, as a result of direct creation, at least.

That's not to say that a super-human consciousness couldn't be created as a result of pure happenstance. Nature itself, even, might take an entirely collateral route in surpassing our abilities. Hell, we might "accidentally" create something that is easily much better than us.

But, again, I would say that that is unlikely. Nature's best bet is within our species- it needs to build on what it already has made. It will not easily come up with something entirely new.

As for what we create- well that's the most likely scenario for what you propose. But, the brain being as amazing as it is, I just doubt it.

[MilesColtrane]

3. It's a loooong way off...

...IF it ever happens.

http://www.skeptic.com/the_magazine/featured_articles/v12n02_AI_gone_awry.html

[AngryAmish]

4. Just be careful when Skynet becomes self aware

especially the Sarah Connors in the Los Angelas area.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

5. The concept would be exciting if it weren't for the...

...virtual certainty that any and all major breakthroughs in AI and recursive learning applications will be put, first and foremost, to weapons R&D. The sophistication and lethality of what the Pentagon already has is very frightening. And their appetite for more, bigger, and better killing technology is both insatiable and interminable, as are their money requirements.

We could learn something from the Amish.

[unpossibles]

6. na, because by then we will have perfected using

nano-tech and genetics to "improve" humanity as well as cybernetics, so we'll just become one with the machines instead.

[HamdenRice]

7. It will take place at approximately 4:35 pm, today, November 20, 2007

For the last six or seven months, I've been designing a new kind of computer, Colossus: The Forbin Project.

At 4:35 pm this afternoon, I will insert it's electrodes into my brain, while simultaneously linking it to the internet, harnessing (actually bogarting and appropriating) all the interlinked computing power on planet earth.

Prepare to be my cyber slaves in about eight hours.

[kedrys]

8. But my hair's still in curlers...!

:rofl: Good one! I thought about Colossus too - one of my favorite flicks. :rofl: :hi:

[HamdenRice]

10. It actually scared me

as a kid. I think I saw it on tv sometime in the late 60s.

Apparently, Ron Howard has a new version in production. With the advances in computing and the internet, this should be a much more realistic, scary film!

[kedrys]

21. No way!

Ron Howard's one of the few guys who might pull it off. :applause:

[rug]

9. Stop trying to raise the quality of Lounge posts.

[mainegreen]

11. Computers are remarkably stupid.

Mind boggling stupid in fact. You would be hard pressed to find a computer smarter than your average flea.

[Solon]

12. True, I doubt that any AI could be born within current computers...

The thing is that computers are designed and built to do ONE thing, crunch numbers, and they are better at it than humans, but its still pretty much the only thing they are better than us at doing. The only area where computers may exceed humans in comparison would be with memory storage, they already recall things much better than humans, its only a matter of time before computer storage technology will exceed whatever maximum capacity the human brain has.

However, having said that, computers have many limitations, two in particular that make it harder, to almost impossible, to have a human level intelligence. The first is obvious, computers cannot physically adapt their hardware to either store information, or learn new behaviors. This may seem unnecessary, but you brain actually changes shape as you learn new things, and creates new connections to help you perform certain tasks. A Core-Duo computer cannot all of the sudden develop and grow a new math coprocessor to deal with particularly difficult mathematical problems, whereas the Human Brain does exactly that.

Another problem with computers is that they have few opportunities to learn on their own, generally they have to be told exactly what to do, outside of a few simple computers inserted in a few robots that developed a limited ability to learn on their own. Human beings, indeed all animals, are given a few base instincts, sometimes that's enough for some animals, and they learn few new behaviors beyond that. For animals with much more complicated brains, they learn from others, through social networking, observation, or trial and error.

Of course, this is talking about CURRENT computing technology, binary computers with CPU, several co-processors, etc. This doesn't mean that some breakthrough couldn't happen later on, a nanotechnological neural network would more closely imitate the human brain, especially if it breaks from the 1's and 0's used now, and can physically change its hardware to adapt to new information or experiences. I'm just not going to speculate as to when that will happen.

[Swede]

13. Many are predicting 2012 as the date of the singularity.

Here is a long article by Ray Kurzweil.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1
Here is a google of singularity 2012
http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&q=2012+singularity&meta=

[Lord Wortherington]

14. Never, for several reasons.

One. Whenever humans try to manipulate genetics and play god it always, always has a disastrous effect. Two. For a human to download their soul into a hard drive you first would have to define the "soul" and isolate it or, let's go one easier, you would have to define and isolate consciousness. That task is impossible. Three. Hardware and wetware simply are not compatible. You would just have human organs riding on top of mechanical implants.

[EstimatedProphet]

15. Killjoy.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

19. It always has a disastrous effect?

You mean like Jurassic Park?

[CJCRANE]

16. We probably won't even notice

when it does happen.

[brainshrub]

17. Maybe Google is a self-aware AI

and is already running the show.

[Fire Walk With Me]

20. If so, it is not benevolent.

All of my searches would result in porn, if Google were a beneficent AI overlord.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

18. Vinge is my favorite.

I was a little disappointed with Rainbow's End, but it was still good.