Hurricane Isabel

[jiacinto]

Should I be worried?

[Shakeydave]

1. You will feel the effects of this one.

Do you know anybody in Central Florida?

[jiacinto]

2. No

I don't.

[Shakeydave]

4. Want to?

We throw high and dry hurricane parties?

[jiacinto]

5. I am scared of everything getting flooded here

nt

[Birthmark]

3. I'm in Central Florida.

I'm keeping a close watch on Isabel.

[JanMichael]

14. Hey! We might finally get to meet up!

Hopefully not in a freakin' shelter in Georgia but it could work out OK.

[Birthmark]

26. No shelters for my family!

My sister has one of the relatively few basements in Orlando and a reasonably big (and well-built) house. All the sibs and wives and children congregate there. We even brought the cat. We did it for Floyd - and it was a blast. A bit noisy and a bit crowded, but nothing a little booze won't take care of.

It is an odd feeling, though, realizing that the things we took with us might well be the only things we might own in a day or two. Pretty good reality check.

[spotbird]

43. Watch that basement in case of flood.

But I guess you've thought of that.

[Lorien]

60. Me too

Missed the last big one, thank goodness-I hope we're as lucky this time.

[Shakeydave]

6. Here is a link!

Give youself at least 24 hours to get out! All the other retiree's are leaving at the last second as well!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/302248W5.gif

[jiacinto]

7. oh

I'm scared!!! Renters insurance doesn't cover flood damage!

[ForrestGump]

8. How far away from the ocean/canals are you? How high above?

The main likely flooding damage is storm surge. If this thing stays Category Four, that surge could be high (usually cited as 18', I think).

Board up your windows if you don't have storm shutters. Stock up on water (including non-drinking tap water in buckets, bathtub, or whatever, for flushing toilets, etc), clean out your fridge and freezer as much as possible (COUNT on the power being out for days, though it may not be), get batteries and candles (careful with the candles), and make sure you've got plenty of food that doesn't need heating or refrigeration, that can be eaten as is. paper plates, etc, are agood idea - you may not be able to wash your dishes if the power's out (ditto if the water's out).

Check the National Hurricane Center's Web pages for more info on how to prepare for a hurricane.

Also, bear in mind that this thing is still way out there and they can wander widely within and around their projected track, or even change course completely....or fizzle out. Get ready - you should be getting ready, anyway, because it's hurricane season and you're in the right part of the world to be hit by one - but don't freak out.

[Shakeydave]

9. C'mon man!

Freaking out is a right of passage down here!

[ForrestGump]

20. Even after they got rid of the Colombian drug lords?

:P

[jiacinto]

10. Okay

I am 1-2 miles away from the beach at least.

[JanMichael]

11. Only a MILE AWAY!!!!

RUN CARLOS RUN!!!!!!

Seriously though, if it does get ugly you know you've got at least three places nearby to crash.

Mi casa es su casa. (Or something like that)

[jiacinto]

12. Ok

Where do you live?

[JanMichael]

13. Sarasota, same as Shakeydave.

We may bolt too if it looks as bad as it appears it could be. Depends on the path.

I'll PM you if we decide to take off. You're welcome to join us on our march through hell on Earth.

[jiacinto]

17. Allegator Alley goes up your way, right?

nt

[JanMichael]

18. We're both off of I-75.

From what you've said you're a 2h45m drive from both of us.

[jiacinto]

19. Ok

nt

[Cheswick2.0]

25. Carlos

right now the path is taking Isabel north towards the florida Georgia border or even the carolinas. Unless the hurricane turns west you are not even going to experience it. The thing to do is watch the tracking maps.

[Shakeydave]

15. And I have family in Central Florida ...................

up on the Ridge! That is where we went for the last two big ones!

[Lorien]

61. Four places

I'm in downtown Orlando and I've got an extra room-but it may not be any safer (or even worse-too early to tell)!

[FlaGranny]

34. For gosh sake,

everybody stop! This storm is going to miss Florida entirely. I would worry if I were in the Carolinas, though. You can actually see by the forecast path that is going to be way to the north of Miami. That doesn't mean you shouldn't be prepared though, like we all should be, all the time.

[Cheswick2.0]

39. Like Andrew

at this stage andrew was going to miss florida too..... then it turned. We are just saying be prepared.

[goobergunch]

41. I'm hoping it's like Floyd...

because we missed almost two days of school from Floyd.

:evilgrin:

[comsymp]

16. I wouldn't worry too much

You're in Miami, right? Odds are that she'll fork NW or even N with the Gulf Stream before you feel much more than a stiff breeze- I've spent most of my life in Eastern NC and we do a lotta 'cane watching down here. Judging from the current position/track, if she even hits the Coast I'd bet it would be between Charleston and Wilmington.

In the meantime, during 'cane season it's always a good idea to stock up on bottled H2O, nonperishables, candles, batteries and a manual can opener... just in case. If this is your first one you may also want to hit the liquor store.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. agree north Florida, Georgia, Carolinas more likely

I'm watching this one too... for my daughter..Isabel. :)

[comsymp]

33. We'll keep our fingers crossed for Isabel

(the good one).

Found this while goofing around. Of course, everybody knows that they're impossible to predict more than a few days out but historical patterns are *generally* good indicators. Still wouldn't hurt for everybody from Miami to DC to be prepared.

http://search.newscom.com/cgi-bin/watermark?doc=KRT%2Fkrtgfx%2Fdocs%2F018%
http://www.krtdirect.com/graphics/preview/preview.htm?doc=KRT%2Fkrtgfx%2Fdocs%2F018%2F992

Oh, and Carlos, if they do call for any kind of evacuation, don't play around- in no time, evac routes will be backed up for hours.

[libertad]

36. I'm in Northeast Florida. It kind of looks like it might head this way.

Hopefully not.

[alfredo]

68. North Carolina would be awful. Much of their National Guard

is in Iraq, and deployment has taken many first responders. the governor was freaking out before the hurricane season, wondering where he'd go for help in case of an emergency. Georgia is also low on National guard. Shit!

This is another worry because of the war.

[sandnsea]

21. You guys are just so damn cool

Taking care of Carlos like this (may I call you Carlos), it is just so nice of you, it just warms my little heart.

And one more thing, I have decided for sure I am NOT moving to Florida. My husband wants to go, but uh uh. This is freaking scary.

[FireHeart]

22. From what I just read...yes.

Isabel may take a south by southwesterly course inside 3-4 days. If so, this will hit Central Florida like a hammer. She's getting better organized and maximum sustained winds are at 125kt with gusts reported at 147kt. This is one NASTY hurricane.

However, it has been pointed out that these things are unpredictable and can either intensify or just fizzle out. But from what I've seen, both are equally likely. Shiver me timbers.

:(

[fishnfla]

27. did you say central fl? *gulp*

right now I'm guessing somewhere between the Cape (Canavaral) and St Simons GA. We got a massive complex in DeLand FL for our hideout

[DrBB]

54. Very good, non-sensationalized info here

Main Isabelle page
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/storm3.html

Great java movie (watch this sucker grow--fast!):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/storm3.html#SPECIAL

Latest observation:
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN THE GUNA CONSENSUS.
THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE TRACK. THE
LATTER MODEL IS THE WESTERNMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEYOND THE 5-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO STATE WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHETHER A SPECIFIC AREA ALONG THE U.S. COAST WILL BE
IMPACTED BY ISABEL. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN
PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF STEERING FEATURES AT THESE LONG RANGES.
FORECASTER PASCH
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/atllisting3.txt

[theHandpuppet]

23. Emergency Preparedness...

First of all, forget the duct tape...

A few things you should consider having on hand whether or not Isabel is headed your way:

A crank-operated lantern and a solar/crank operated radio. We have both in our home and they work great! They really aren't that expensive and you'll never have to worry about batteries.

Plenty of bottled water, plus bleach for killing germs in such things as bath water, etc (very little is actually required).

First aid kit.

Zip-lock bags for important papers (and for your cellphone if you have one).

Cooler filled with ice.

If you have pets, write your addy/phone number directly on their collars with an indelible marker (Sharpie works well). Also make sure you keep extra canned food on hand for them and have a good pet carrier.

Prepare a "grab n' go" bag containing some of the items listed above, such as first aid kit, lantern, radio, important papers, etc.

[nannygoat]

66. Here's another good list of things to have on hand

Disaster kits
http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/disaster/factsheets/html/96.html

[JCMach1]

24. Remember what I said awhile back Carlos

Definitely take it seriously, but remember, it's still a great ways out.

If you need to flee North, I will get you in touch with my parents and you can stay in our Florida home.

[fishnfla]

28. Dont panic, but be ready

*IF*
this storm comes your way Carlos as a cat 4 or higher, take my advice be ready to get the hell out of town. Make sure there is plenty of gas in your car, all week the 3/4 line is 'empty' Make sure you have enough cash to travel. Leave sooner than later, the traffic will be a bitch. Take the turnpike, they will close the toll booths.

I had friends and relatives who rode out Andrew, as a rule they all say "never again"

If it hits FL I'm thinking next Fri.

[mrbill]

29. you guys in florida are lucky

tornados in the plains states don't give much warning. hurricanes are pokey puppies in comparison, lots of time to get ready for the hurricane party.

no such thing as a tornado party.

[ForrestGump]

31. That's true, but

when you're in a hurricane it seems to go on forever (and easily can go on for 10-12 hours) and the noise is constant and scary as hell.

I've never been close enough to a tornado to hear it, and wouldn't be in a hurry to, but tornadoes don't bring the wide path of destruction that a hurricane (or earthquake) does - they're more selective and so, statistically, your likelihood of being hit is less (though likelihood of total devastation if you ARE hit is higher). Category Three to Five hurricanes often spawn tornadoes, microbursts of intense energy, but they don't tend to be as strong as the classic stand-alone Tornado Alley kind.

[FlaGranny]

35. Here is the official forecast

As of now the track is expected to turn more northward.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT3

You will notice that in 120 hours the center of the storm is forecast to be west of Palm Beach County.

[FireHeart]

37. The latest track suggests this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/111458W5.gif

[FlaGranny]

38. I meant to say due "east" - sorry.

x

[jiacinto]

55. Oh my god no!

I live in Miami-Dade County!

[bikebloke]

32. Remember Your Docs

If you have to hoof it for higher ground, make sure you take all your important documents with you (wrapped in plastic). Prepare a grab bag. I was down there as Hugo approached. Other things (like PC), I wrapped in plastic, then stowed in an interior closet. Then I waited until the last minute before evacuating. However Hugo veered north, ending the adventure. The grocery stores sure made a killing.

[KittyWampus]

40. Eastern Long Island Checking In

We are very LONG overdue for a landfall here.

The water tables are so low due to overdevelopement that when it does finally happen-
Montauk will be an island.

I keep wondering if Mother Nature will send a hurricane north next September right before
the GOP Convention in Manhattan.

[goobergunch]

42. Here's the updated forecast

I predict that it hits the Carolinas as a Cat 3 or 4, so you should be okay.

[FireHeart]

44. Isabel is a Cat 5 now.

ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY TODAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
3 AGENCIES...TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW 7.0 AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS ARE ALSO ABOUT THE SAME VALUE. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

140kt=161mph.

NASTY!!!

[ForrestGump]

45. Category Five starts at 155 mph

Let's hope that this doesn't make landfall anywhere. But if it's coming for you, batten the hatches and get away from its path and the sea. :scared:

EDIT: by the way, that's a threshold of 155-mph sustained winds - the gusts can spike much, much higher. You don't want to be around for the baseline wind, let alone those gusts.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

46. PRESSURE NOW 921 MB

EYE DIAMETER 15 NM.... she's gearing up for cat 5!

Isabel

[goobergunch]

47. It better start leveling out soon...

or we're doomed.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

48. Not likely

but even if it does stop strengthening it's still packing 150 MPH winds. The only hope for no damaging hit is for it to veer more northhwest, and then north up the coast.

[ForrestGump]

49. Latest picture from NOAA on this page...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

If she keeps finding warm water, and she will in that neighborhood and points west and north (SSTs - Sea Surface Temperatures - are very high now, with lots of coral bleaching also going on as a result), she won't fizzle out.

[Blue_Roses]

70. that is one awesome

looking hurricane. She looks like a "bitch" (no pun intended) and will reek havoc no matter where she lands.

My grandparents lived in Galveston and I used to track hurricanes with my grandmother. Even though they are scarey, I still find them extremely intriging and exciting.

[jiacinto]

50. So am I screwed

nt

[Shakeydave]

51. Here's your update!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/302248W5.gif

[jiacinto]

52. Looks like it is headed for upper Florida and the

Jacksonville/Daytona area. Am I reading the map correctly

[Shakeydave]

53. Sure! If you need to leave though.................

give us a call!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

57. yes

although I'd put good money on the Carolinas getting the direct hit due to the tendency to curve more northwards.

[jiacinto]

56. I am so scared

nt

[ForrestGump]

58. You should be, but

don't let it paralyze you or mess with your life. This is a powerful piece of weather but YOU have the power - by being forewarned (very few hurricanes develop quickly enough to hit without warning, though it does happen) - to prepare your home and possessions and to get out of Dodge if you need to. After that, it's up to the storm. As long as you are safe, that's the main thing.

So it's good that you are afraid to at least some extent, because people who do not respect Nature (especially when she's this serious) are idiots and because it'll drive you to perhaps even 'overprepare.' And don't do what most people do - make sure that you stay prepared, because other hurricanes will threaten your area as time goes by.

But don't overdo the fear. You'll be okay - that's a given and within your control if you act wisely - and, besides, the odds are really good that it will not directly hit your area. I just hope that, wherever it's heading, the people in its final path are as ready for it as you need to be.

Welcome to the Hurricane Belt. :D

[comsymp]

59. No need to be, really

You lived in DC before, right? Didn't y'all get any of Fran or Floyd, etc? Not trying to minimize the potential but surely you've ridden out some storms before???

[opihimoimoi]

62. Confuicious 109.37364

Never ever move to a stormy area such as Hurricane Alley.

[comsymp]

63. Not unless you enjoy rum

Hell, here in Eastern/Piedmont NC we get hurricanes, tornadoes, snow, ice, heat >100, humidity that would wilt a blue-steel hardon, earthquakes (albeit damn rarely), immigrants from New Jersey... we can take it! B-)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

64. update

Interesting stat here: eye dia. now at 30 NM which means it has grown from 15 to 20 since yesterday. However, pressure remains very low at 921 Milibars, and wind speeds still strong at 160 MPH....

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 58.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM (grown from 15 to 20 since yesterday)
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/120836.shtml?

[comsymp]

65. Gotta admit, she's awesome

Look at that eye!

[inthecorneroverhere]

67. Isabel

That is a beautiful, classic picture. I put it as my desktop wallpaper.

Gotta admit I'm glad I'm on 'high ground.' Lived in hurricane country for a few years. Sounds like a fun, but illegal, bookies bet ... where it's going to strike....or if it's going to just go out to sea...

Seriously, though, I hope everybody who lives within 150 miles of the east coast or Gulf Coast goes ahead and has on hand:

1. Enough food for a *week* or *more* in the form of something that is non-perishable like cereal, crackers, ready-to-eat, whatever. If you're right on the coast, think about keeping 2 weeks of food and water on hand, at least.]

2. Buckets and containers to store water for flushing the toilet and the like. Some Clorox bleach just in case you need to disinfect water.

3. Flashlight/batteries

4. At least a half a tank of gas in the car. Have a full tank if you're within a few miles of the coast.

5. If you own your home, and are within a few miles of the coast, plywood to board up the windows.

I hope folks get this stuff NOW i.e. this weekend when the stores have plenty on hand, rather than wait until the week when Isabel is closer.

[Raven]

69. Why does the weather service give them names?

Why not Hurricane #1, Hurricane #2 and so on? How did that get started? Anybody know?

[electricmonk]

71. From a NOAA site

Tropical cyclones are named to provide ease of communication between forecasters and the general public regarding forecasts, watches, and warnings. Since the storms can often last a week or longer and that more than one can be occurring in the same basin at the same time, names can reduce the confusion about what storm is being described. According to Dunn and Miller (1960), the first use of a proper name for a tropical cyclone was by an Australian forecaster early in this century. He gave tropical cyclone names "after political figures whom he disliked. By properly naming a hurricane, the weatherman could publicly describe a politician (who perhaps was not too generous with weather-bureau appropriations) as 'causing great distress' or 'wandering aimlessly about the Pacific.'" (Perhaps this should be brought back into use ;-)

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B1.html