Bush's "Illegal Alien" Gambit - Guess Who Wins in the Long Run

[DuctapeFatwa]

Note: you do have to actually read the whole thing to get the answer. I apologize for the inconvenience.
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The real and unintended long-term consequence of bush's Mexican gambit, pundits will call it.

In reality though, it will be just another predictable, inevitable event as the US transitions to a real American country as opposed to a British ex-colony.

On its face, it looks like a shrewd move. Promise "guest worker" status to millions of people so desperate for survival that they risk their lives and cross deserts without water to work for minimum wage or less, crowding 12 or 20 into a one bedroom apartment so they can send a little money back to families in Mexico, so desperate that they let them go, their sons and husbands and fathers and mothers, knowing they may not return, or may return in a coffin, or may return and have to make a way out of no way to get back again, they can't vote, but their cousins and brothers-in-law can, and every day a few more of their children, born on the US side of the border, citizens, every day a few more turn 18.

If you've been seeing a lot of Mexican families in your town, and you were seeing them in 1994, just about every 8 year old you saw back then can vote now. How many 8 year olds do you see today?

So listen, whispered bush's campaign posse. They already outnumber the n- um, African-Americans, let's float this plan...

Of course the actual plan comes with some strings. It won't hit congress till after the election, and there is no guarantee that any worker who "registers" really will get residency. So built-in failsafes for bush's "base," taken aside, whispered to, speeches will be made, but few Republicans will jump ship over this.

Even shrewder, the ball that is suddenly lobbed into the roiling snakepit of the Democratic pre-primary rumble.

Democrats have coasted on their little splash into the diversity-embracing pool, from which they emerged shivering and scurrying back to the safety of their restricted cabanas a half-century ago, blithely assuming that all your minority groups is belong to us, especially that little gaggle of them over there that vote.

The bulk of America's "minorities" however, like the bulk of America's poor, among which minorities are dramatically over-represented, have been left by both parties to twist in the wind, aided by a polling system that makes sure that that theoretical right to vote stays theoretical, and the matter of fact reality that neither party has anything to offer the poor; the only candidate who has even dared utter the phrase "Living Wage" is considered unelectable, and from the looks of his scrawny campaign chest, it is a hard claim to dispute.

While Democrats are far from united on the issue of undocumented workers in the US, those who favor open borders, or anything that would actually benefit the workers themselves, are about as plentiful as those who favor a Living Wage and Canada-style health care for all.

Even in the most "progressive" and "left-leaning" circles, one does not have to listen too hard to hear cries of "breaking the LAW," "taking our JOBS," although when pressed, few can honestly say that were they in the huarches of their Mexican brothers, that they would sit quietly and watch their children starve to demonstrate their respect for US immigration laws, and even fewer express a real interest in washing dishes in a Chinese restaurant for 12 or 16 hours a day, 7 days a week, and still fewer would even be able to keep up with the pace on your average sunbelt roofing job.

The likelihood that the Democrats will "outbid" the Republicans for Hispanic voters is small, and is not helped by the stubborn refusal of so many Hispanics to be as stupid as politicians both wish and assume they are.

So while the Republicans alternately orate and winkwinknudge each other, and the Democrats debate, a surprising number of supposedly politically unaware Mexicans and Central Americans of varying legal status are quietly aware that Peter Camejo has quietly said, on more than one occasion, "these are the sons of the indigenous people of our continent," maybe one of the shrewdest things one could possibly say in the hearing of millions of people who come from countries with multi-party systems....

[sallyseven]

1. Legislation fails in 2006.

The bush says well I tried. WSJ opened that cat of worms today. Is the wsj seeing clearly? Conservatives don't like this. Democrats should point out effective date and force the issue to be voted up or down this year. Repuk congress will not allow it. Fake Fake

[David__77]

2. Republicans would be ill-advised to dream too much.

I know in CA that rightists won't win among Latinos here--not going to happen. The labor movement is revitalized here thanks to a surging, predominantly Latino component.

[DuctapeFatwa]

3. Kick for the oppressed reading minority

[redqueen]

4. Very interesting

I hope you're right about qui bono.

[kentuck]

5. Definitely not an issue the Democrats should ignore or.....

pretend is not important.

[bemildred]

6. LOL.

Excellent.
Sooner or later, arrogance will bite you in the ass.
Sign me up, I'll go with the indios any day, they know
how to work.

[DuctapeFatwa]

9. y todos somos indios, todos somos Marcos

and Kurdistan Zindabad!

:hi:

[markus]

7. Some questionable assumptions

Do Hispanic citizens really care as much about the undocumented workers as Bush thinks they do?

Or is this more about making sure the business community has all of the cheap labor it needs for jobs most Americans can't be bother to do?

[DuctapeFatwa]

11. Two very different questions on very different topics

Hispanics are far from a monolithic bloc. The Cubans in South Florida tend to have views and concerns and political leanings that are very different from people from Mexico and Central America.

Like any people anywhere, views and concerns tend to follow economics more closely than country of origin, for example, well-to-do people from South America living in the US and their countrymen who, like many Mexicans, came to the US in order to feed their families may agree on little.

By far the largest group of Hispanics in the US is just that: people who have come to the US to work, people who were poor back home, and are still poor here, but they can send some money home that keeps the family alive.

Not a lot of voters in that bunch, although you would have a hard time finding a first generation Mexican voter who does not have a friend or family member who is "undocumented."

This has to do with throwing a monkey into the political works, as outlined in the original post.

The measure not only would do little for the workers, workers who are currently working without papers would be better off as they are - even if they get "picked up" by the migra, which happens to a relatively small %, it is an inconvenience, and an expense. Many lose up to a week's work, and some lose that and a couple of month's salary getting back.

If they went to some office and got their fingerprints in the system, that would not be to their advantage at all. To get a 3 year status and a maybe residency, with no guarantees? To be locked into one identity, one employer, so if things don't work out, you can't just change jobs and/or names?

Yes, in theory, some companies could order up some people, and get them, but they can and do that now. In fact, they don't even have to order. Any "guest worker" program would, however weighted in the company's favor, have to include, at least on paper, some requirements regarding workmens comp, benefits, etc, thus resulting in an increase in costs for the company. They too, would be better off the way it is now.

If the goal really were to improve workers conditions, give them rights, that could be done very easily. Just say anybody working for you, papers or no papers, gets A, B, C. - and decriminalize people moving from one part of their continent to another in order to put food on their families.

You won't see bush proposing anything like that. This is less than window dressing.

It is a statement of intent to dress a window.

[TheMiddleRoad]

16. Illegal Immigrants Against Imigration

Do Hispanic citizens really care as much about the undocumented workers as Bush thinks they do?


I think the legal, native born Hispanic's aren't dumb. They realize (the same as whites) that hordes of desperate people surging across the border will lower their wages.

What Bush fails to realize is the pathos of an immigrant. They quickly turn their back on new immigrants.

I don't think most people are against immigration. They are against large volumes of immigrants that interfere with the labor market.

I even read an article today stating that current illegals were worried that Bush's policies will lead to a new wave of competitors. After all, these illegals braved the hazards of wind, water, heat, coyotes and border patrol to get here. Why should the chikenshits back home get to horn in on their action. Even illegal immigrants are against more immigration.

IIAI!!!!!!

[LeahMira]

8. I haven't heard the particulars...

... but I wonder why this is such a bad idea. Isn't it possible that Bush can do something right once in his life? All this BS about "rewarding people for breaking the law" doesn't impress me at all for a number of reasons.

What does bother me is that anyone is working for such low wages. If Americans allegedly won't take these jobs (assuming they won't because of the low wages), why should any Mexican have to?

It seems to me that Bush is focusing on the wrong problem. Indeed, these Mexicans should not be hunted down and deported like they are, but neither should they have to accept a pittance because they currently are in no position to complain. Maybe if they were "legal" they would have more assurance about demanding decent wages?

No, I don't much care if it costs the state or the federal government to educate their children or provide services for them. They are human beings and we are the wealthiest nation in the world.

So, I'm looking for an education here.

[SoCalDem]

10. As soon as this "recent" batch of undocumented workers

gets "recognized status", there will be a whole new batch of undocumented workers who will be arriving, ready to undercut the wages of the ones who just got status.. It has been ever thus..

The EMPLOYERS are the winners here, and they will ALWAYS be the winners..

It's a little dance they all do.. The boss "knows" that his workers have bogus papers,but he pretends not to notice.. The employee has deductions taken from his piddly little check, but cannot complain or he will be fired or exposed..

Does anyone really think that the "boss" actually matches the FICA, and sends it in to the govt along with the fed and state withholding?? He pockets that extra money that's withheld.. The $6 or $7 an hour that the undocumented workers are paid ends up being more like $4 or $5 a hour.. For every one who HAS a job like that, there are 15 or 20 to take his place if he questions the boss....

The underground labor market is going to be with us no matter what laws are passed.. there are laws against it NOW, and nothing gets done about it.. When a place does get busted, the company gets off with a fine, and the next day, they have all new workers ....until the next time...

[DuctapeFatwa]

14. Actually, many do match the FICA, and it gets paid into your account

or your brother's, or somebody's. The person who earned it does not get credit for it, unless they are lucky enough to wrangle a 245 I (that is where someone who entered the US "without inspection," if they marry a citizen (or get a work visa, but that almost never happens with people coming from Mex, etc) they can pay a fine and "adjust their status." If they have documentation of their "illegal" employment(s), under whatever name(s), they can petition for all their social security to be hunted down and moved from your account into theirs, since they now have a social security number of their own. It is a cumbersome process, but one that should be done for all, regardless of immigration status, as it is a HUGE class action suit waiting to happen, and when it does, it really will "break" social security.

Ditto with income taxes. Most undocumented workers overpay their taxes because they don't know how to manipulate their W4s and of course they can't get refunds, most don't even bother filing. And the same is true of 1099s, they just eat their expenses instead of deducting them.

[DuctapeFatwa]

12. see second half of post 11

[Stephanie]

20. The whole point is to provide a permanent low-wage class to serve

the Corporate Robber Barons. Low wages is WHY they're doing it.

[OneTwentyoNine]

13. Hell,draft them straight into Chimps Oil War.....

Thats always the "talking point" for illegals,they will do jobs that the average Murikan won't do. Well,I'll bet your ASS the average American doesn't want to go to Iraq and get killed. So...bring in the illegals with the clause that they do at least two years in the Military,one of those years being in Iraq.

You'll soon hear a trampling of feet going back south.

David

[DuctapeFatwa]

15. If this vapor ever sees congress, it will be in the form that you say

however, it will not be "instead of" US citizens from undesirable populations, it will be "in addition to."

[CHIMO]

17. Don't See

Any problem in replying to this proposal.

If you work here you work like anyone else. If an employer does not have the required filters then it is his problem.
The approach that should be taken is that you meet the the Laws.
If one wanted to really push it you could say that if a person is not being paid what the law says they should be paying, then the owner/company is breaking the law.
And now the law is Patriot...

[alfredo]

18. Oliphant has spoken

[1songbird]

19. I'm surprised that so many people are missing a key point of Bush's

plan. His plan is far broader than just bringing in illegals to work in low wage positions. After listening to a labor representative today say that Mr. Bush has basically blown the roof off of HB1 visas, it appears that employers in high tech fields such as IT and engineering will be greatly impacted. These fields are already being negatively affected because of global outsourcing. HB1 visas have a limit and this is essential in protecting state side hi-tech jobs. I called Senator Boinovich today to confirm this and complain. The Senators aide did confirm that as of right now the plan will allow any employers who claim to have a need, to hire anyone from whatever country and there is no limit. African Americans and other minorities will not suffer alone in this. This plan if passed will have a devastating impact on the struggling middle class across all color lines. The only beneficiaries here are the Corporations.

[Stephanie]

21. That's what I was afraid of -

They will bring in IT and programmers from India for 3-year stints at low wages. This way they can have their sweatshop right here in the US without the expense of opening up satellite offices. They can outsource without ever having to leave the country.

[1songbird]

22. Bingo, That's exactly what they plan on doing.

They want to cut out the administrative cost associated with global outsourcing. Some companies have been finding that these cost are cutting off the big profits that they thought they would get from global outsourcing. You hit the nail on the head.

[Stephanie]

23. Hear that, kids ^

Any of us who still have our jobs can start packing. Their plan is to outsource in-house.