It doesn't add up....

[kentuck]

For all the polls, etc, that show George W Bush so popular and ahead of all the Democrats, some by double digits, does not make sense. None of us want to have our heads in the sand but how does Bush get 5 million more votes than the Democrat in the next election, considering that he lost the popular vote by slightly more than a half-million votes in 2000? Is he really more popular now than he was then? I doubt that very much? In fact, I think he has lost some support with traditional conservatives.

So, is the Democratic Party less enthused about going to the polls and voting against Bush than they were in 2000? I doubt it. So where does Bush get his large lead now that he could not muster in 2000? Will there really be that many Democratic voters vote for him simply to keep from changing horses in the middle of the stream?

Try as I might, I cannot realistically see how George W Bush can be as popular as he is portrayed in the corporate media. My instincts tell me that he will lose at least two or three states that he "won" in 2000. Also, states such as Ohio with losses of many jobs, will be difficult for Bush to retain in his column. I doubt that very many Democratic states will switch to Bush. Can someone explain rationally how Bush is going to sweep the Democrats in 2004?

[DuctapeFatwa]

1. I am not a big defender of polls, but he is incredibly popular

with voters, even many who consider themselves Democrats.

You can verify this anecdotally by just listening to people wherever you go, hide behind a post, or a display of canteloupes, and listen to what people are saying. They are usually not talking about bush, but when they are, they praise him.

You can also verify this using the knowledge you have of events and changes in the country since he took office, and by looking out of your own window, and clicking on any Washington webcam, then compare what you see to footage you have seen of events in Venezuela.

[kentuck]

5. However, that does not mean they will vote for him...

In fact, I have seen "re-elect" polls that show him in the 40% range. This would indicate that many people that support him in his war do not necessarily think he is doing a good job overall...

[DuctapeFatwa]

9. In the current climate, voting against him is considered unpatriotic

I have seen polls that show 30% say "doing a good job"

and close to 60% saying "favorable opinion"

Same poll, same people.

Goebbels understood.

[maggrwaggr]

24. Where do you live, Ductape?

I'm admittedly out of touch with the average American, as I live in Santa Monica California where everybody fucking HATES Bush.

I'm curious where you're picking up this vibe.

[DuctapeFatwa]

25. It seems to be about the same in lots of places, the differences

that emerge are predictable: for instance, if you go to a place that is frequented by a younger, educated crowd, like a coffee shop next to a bookstore after dark, you are more likely to hear people who are aware of some Democratic candidates, watch CNN, and roll their eyes at bush.

If, however, you go to a supermarket in an affluent family suburb in the middle of the day, or to an event with a lot of "suits" you are more likely to hear expressions of approval of the regime.

Now once you step across that invisible line and insert yourself into a milieu that is politically aware and active, everything changes, and you will get about the same breakdown as above, but the people are more likely to talk about politics, as opposed to a shrug, a mention, eyeroll or grimace :)

And as always, if you go to a lower-income area, you will not hear expressions of approval for bush, but you will not hear very much to indicate that the regime has inspired the disenfranchised to develop a strong faith in the the election process. And as always, their assessment of the situation is markedly more accurate than that of their newsjunkie brothers.

It should be noted that in all cases I am referring to overheard and observed behavior conducted independently of me, and where possible without awareness of my presence.

Engaging strangers in a conversation yourself is a completely different activity, and would give different results, just due to human nature, and drawing any conclusion from the people with whom one interacts on a daily basis will be even more skewed.

[underpants]

8. Mmmm yes and no

I think there are those like us who aren't going to like him anyway and those who are going to like him no matter what he says or especially does.

I know people from all over the spectrum and he has lost a few of the people that should not even be close to NOT supporting him. I'm talking about older oldschool businessmen, soldiers (that's a whole other thread, and housewives who voted for him the last time.

With 9/11 and the winning of the war (as well as Americans propensity to support he POTUS at times of national strife and war)his numbers should be way higher than they are.

[DuctapeFatwa]

10. yes, but think back to Sept 10. Many who didn't like him then do now

And those voters are more numerous than the ones who had a big epiphany in the fall of 2001 and discovered that other countries do not share the popular American conception that they are the property of the US.

[kentuck]

12. So does that mean that 9/11 and the war are the only issues??

If we run a Democrat that supports the war, then is that anything less than a submission?

[underpants]

14. If W&Co. have their way

What would you focus on? YEs I know they aren't slam dunks but I think they are still planning on using the carrier footage and the T0Day trip to Iraq.

[DuctapeFatwa]

15. It is a submission to the popular perception that

The US knows what is best for its properties in other parts of the world, often referred to by anti-American terrorist sympathizers as "other countries."

All the candidates support the war. They support having other people fight it, either in addition to, or instead of the US, and under US command, but all agree that Iraq should be occupied by the US or its agents. (The UN is a US agent, as evidenced by their decision not to stop the invasion, their decision to rubber stamp the occupation, and if that's not enough, consider that they don't even have enough independence to vote yes on a resolution condemning the murder of UN employees, if the US says not to.)

[Cleita]

18. Gee where do you live?

I live in a freeperville area and I have had many Republicans, who voted for Bush, saying they won't vote for him in the next election.

[loudsue]

19. Sorry, ductape....that's just NOT the case

Everywhere I go here in the VERY conservative heart of Southern Baptist territory, folks who have supported the repukes since Reagan are turning against shrub in large numbers.

I keep hearing about them being embarrassed by him, about them hating his economy, about him lying about Iraq, about him giving all our tax dollars to Iraqis, about him letting corporations take all our jobs away overseas....

and on and on.

Now, that doesn't mean GW will lose in '04! Even the President/CEO of Diebold (voting machines) told bush that he would "deliver the votes to George Bush" in the next election. Bush will steal anything he can. But there are a lot of new southern (Reagan) republicans that really, really, really don't like the guy.

[DuctapeFatwa]

23. I think you and Cleita may both be talking to people

not eavesdropping on people who would not give you the time of day, if they know anything about you, and who will not say anything if you are visible if they don't.

And it makes a big difference, what they say to each other, not to you :)

[Imajika]

26. Very good post

"You can verify this anecdotally by just listening to people wherever you go, hide behind a post, or a display of canteloupes, and listen to what people are saying. They are usually not talking about bush, but when they are, they praise him."

Exactly.

All these little bits of ancedotal, feel good "evidence" of Bush's unpopularity constantly posted here mean virtually nothing. For every sister in law, brothers friend, step mother, daughters boyfriend, etc, - that suddenly hate Bush and will never vote for him again, a rightwinger could no doubt cite some "liberal" relative or friend who is saying the opposite.

It means very little what people say to ideologues like us. Most people are not particularly politically commited. Not even most Democrats and Republicans are anywhere near as interested as the people who discuss politics on forums like this.

Most people, on subjects they know little about (like politics), tend to say what they think you want to hear. People tend to gravitate towards consensus. You just can't trust that someone in a supermarket that heard you trashing Bush and volunteers that they will vote against him, will really do anything of the sort.

If Bush were that unpopular his party would have suffered in the 2002 and 2003 elections. The Republicans not only didn't suffer, they made gains.

From polling to election returns, my read is that Bush is indeed fairly popular. This is why I am continually pointing out how hard he will be to beat.

Imajika

[KissMyAsscroft]

2. 9-11 swung a lot of morons in his favor...

Thats where some of the support comes from...

[Nay]

28. I agree, KMA. * still has a lot of the votes of people who had the

life scared out of them and never have been able to muster a stiff upper lip after 9/11.

[cthrumatrix]

3. at this stage ...what is truth ?....elections stolen...polls rigged and

media cheerleading for shrub at every "teflon moment".

We won't know until we have a validated paper trail and head to head match-up with "shrub the thug".

[lovedems]

4. I think the country is more divided now then it was in 00

The polls don't make sense to me either but then again, neither do the numbers on the economy. Anything that comes out of this administration (or the media) are automatically suspect. I am sure these are just more numbers made up by this administration to fool the sheeple. It has worked so far.

I have to believe that there are many moderate republicans who don't like the direction the chimp is taking this country.

[loudsue]

20. There's a great article in LBN forum about those numbers

for the economy.

Turns out that this (mis)administration has been "weighting" things to scrub the books, trying to make it look like there's no inflation in the good ole USofA.

You're right about the economy....there's no recovery. They're trying to prop things up with bad numbers.

Just like the polls....


:kick:

[Capn Sunshine]

6. Well, Kentuck, when they warned us in 96

about the dangers of consolidating Media under six corporate owners , THIS is the sort of thing they were talking about.

Bush is hugely popular! Don't you know? He's unbeatable!

Because THEY say so.

Well, if you do the math, no, it doesn't work, but that's not important when they are push polling.

[Chef]

7. Surrender

Resistance is futile. We are all Republicans now.

I watched Charlie Rose express surprise last night when one of his panelests suggested that * really wasn't that popular. I don't understand why somone isn't calling out this bunch of clowns for what they are?

[waylon]

11. i dont think polls are all that accurate this early

registered voters is the key, i think. I assume there are alot of folks who wait to register, especially first time voters, until the primaries are over. I could be wrong but I think there alot of party line voters out there who dont really care who our nominee is, they will vote with the party.

Dont take polls too seriously or you will lose sleep.

[Solly Mack]

13. True story: A HUGE Republican from California

Who couldn't utter Clinton's name without snarling,can now only say Bush/Cheney with dripping contempt.

This man hates those two-for all the lies.... and refuses to vote for them again.

If this man could look beyond his Clinton hate...others had to as well.

I don't believe Shrub is all that popular.

[Skittles]

16. Solly, there is an article in the DALLAS MORNING NEWS today

about the DEEP, DEEP DIVISION in this country, in towns, even in HOUSEHOLDS. And this is freaking TEXAS. I don't believe the hype about the shrub either.

[libview]

17. I think it's the independents that will swing the election

the Democrats will vote for the Dem nominee, and the Republicans will vote for Bush. It's the independents that decide these elections, and all things being equal ( in there mind ) will tend to vote for the incumbant. This is why I don't support Dean, I don't think he will resinate with these voters.

[loudsue]

21. Totally disagree....

If the votes were ALL counted, and people were not to be disenfranchised in the 2004 election, I think you'd see shrub as toast.

However....shrubs folks do control, own, and program the voting machines, and many of the offices in the states that count the votes (a la Katherine Harris). So they may still win, but NOT because it's legitimate.

The swing voters are as sick of this bunch as the log-cabin republicans are.
:kick:

[mlawson]

22. Isn't it always the independents (apolitical voters) who swing the

election?? And millions of them vote for the candidate they LIKE the most. Millions and millions disagreed with Ronnie's policies, but they LIKED the Gipper, and by golly they gave him 49 states in 1984.

That is my recurring nightmare: will it happen this year, but with bush???

[supercrash]

27. Here is the story...

Most of the American people are idiots, It's just that simple...They are idiots

Look around you...

60% approval for Iraq ?

The place is trashed, there is NO security, there are no wmd's, there is no Al'Qaeda, The Iraqi oil ISN'T paying for the war, and Halliburton just got their fuel trucking contract back

And don't tell me it's the media...cause it's not.

The truth is out there, yet nobody cares, most Americans support the Iraq war, and they support the lies to wage war....because they are idiots