Do we tend to overestimate or underestimate Bush's chances in 2004?

[jpgray]

I'm just curious to see how DUers see Bush coming into the election year. It is my own opinion that he should be vulnerable even if Iraq is relatively stable, the economy is recovering, and Osama is captured. Granted, we may not have a strong enough candidate to win in that situation, but Bush has done enough so he should be vulnerable now no matter what happens.

[neuvocat]

1. It isn't Bush that has to be beat.

It is the media and all the corporations, a repuke congress and the supreme crooks that put him there in the first place.

[chromotone]

3. correct...

if it's a fair election, we're overestimating...
if sElection2000 is any indication, we could be underestimating...:cry:

[stinkeefresh]

7. but we were up against the same things in 2000 and he still

lost by half a mil. You don't think he's lost any support in the last few years? Because I tend to think he has.

[gulliver]

8. True. If it were just Bush it would be easy.

What an amazing thing money is. It can put a guy like Bush in the Oval Office. Money talks.

[vi5]

2. I know I'm naturally pessimistic...

But I'm really afraid that we are in for a world of hurt in 2004. And since the choices of our nominees are pretty much a study in contrasts (more in how they are perceived than in how they actually are), then whichevery way we chose, if and when we lose it will forever divide the party.

[jab105]

4. Agree...

Hate to say it, every time I hear the drip drip of trouble, it just disappears into oblivion...gets kinda frustrating...but damn it, I'll work my ass off, even if not successful at defeating him, to at least proudly say that I tried...

[stinkeefresh]

9. I'm naturally optimistic

but I still think this loser's going down in flames. He'll be lucky to stay out of the Hague when this is all said and done.

But I really must comment on your "divided party" scenario. This is just not so. We are divided right now, yes, but over the issue of TACTICS. Dean folks think an unpredictable grassroots fighter is the best tactic, Clark folks think a respected General is the best tactic. But whichever gets the nom will get the support of the whole Democratic party, because the ideology of these guys is pretty alike.

It takes a divide in ideology to divide a party, and in the Dems there really is none. (Unlike the Rockerfeller/Nixon divide, which was quite deep.)

[vi5]

12. Do you honestly think....

That in these scenarios, if either of the camps (those in favor of nominating a centrist vs. those in favor of nominating a "liberal") don't get their way, even if they support the nominee during the election, if there is a loss there won't be a ton of finger pointing?

[YNGW]

17. Division

>if and when we lose it will forever divide the party. (From post #2)

Should we lose, I think you're right. I actually think dividing the party could be a good thing, because I think the dividing line is more along the lines of 95%-5%; the 5% being the very, very vocal, but rather small, far-left wing of the party.

[Jacobin]

5. It's way too early to make predictions

Manys a slip between cup and lip.

Just get out there and work like hell for the candidate of your choice.

[jpgray]

6. Yeah, but I just wanted to see what people think. (nt)

[kymar57]

11. RE;It's way too early

Manys a slip between cup and lip.
most excellent saying for these times:scared:

[seventhson]

10. The Media says he is unbeatable. Many believe that so...

I think we tend to think he will do better than reality.

I think he is going to get BURIED by Dean!

[KoKo]

13. We are in "fox holes" peeking out some days, others we have our "swords

drawn!" It's a toss up. Everytime there's some Media spin we all fall all over ourselves weeping and wailing about his success. The rest of the time we think we've got him. :shrug: Who knows. We are a schizoid bunch here.

[banana republican]

14. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE YOU OPPONENT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EOM

[jpgray]

15. There is considerable danger in overestimation

If you overestimate him, you give up the initiative and are forced to react only to Bush's actions and plans rather than forcing him react to your own.

[Lone Pawn]

16. But are we misunderestimating him?

Obvious post.

[creativelcro]

18. Look Poppy Bush lost. Infant Bush can lose too.

[Jen]

19. He has a record to bash.

I overestimate the Shrub's chances, but I think his record has made enemies, and his desire to appeal to the Left has pissed off his base supporters.

I think the election will be tight.

[leesa]

20. Bush will definitely not win if it is a real election. If it is a GOP

election with the massive voter fraud of 2000 and 2002, all Bush has to do is create the illusion that he is popular and the voting machines and the corrupted election officials will do the rest.