Third National Poll puts Dean in the lead again...

[slinkerwink]

Gallup's latest national poll, taken from December 11 to 14, shows Howard Dean leading the pack (the two most recent polls, from 12/5-7 and 11/14-16, respectively, in parentheses):

Dean 31 (25) (17)
Other 15 (10) (13)
Lieberman 13 (10) (13)
Clark 10 (17) (17)
Kerry 10 (7) (9)
Gephardt 8 (14) (13)
Sharpton 5 (3) (5)
Edwards 4 (7) (6)
Braun 3 (5) (4)
Kucinich 1 (2) (3)

[TexasPatriot]

1. i heard CNN

quoting a new cnn/usatoday gallup poll last night
Bush was up to 63% approval rating and a matchup between Bush and Dean was 60% for bush - 37% for dean

havent seen anything like a link or internals yet

[TexasPatriot]

16. here it is

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/17/elec04.prez.poll/index.html


pulled roughly from story --

Bush leads 60 percent to 37 percent (+/-4)
In polling directly before Saddam's capture, Bush was ahead of the former Vermont governor 52 percent to 44 percent.

Gen. Wesley Clark running better against the president than Dean but still behind 56 percent to 40 percent.

In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll taken the week before Gore's endorsement, Dean's support stood at 25 percent among registered Democratic voters. It rose to 33 percent after Gore gave his seal of approval December 10 to the candidate. But in the polling after Saddam's capture, support for Dean had retreated to 27 percent

Lieberman and Clark ranked second behind Dean, tied at 12. The story says Clark's support is eroding, but its up from 10 to 12 since the news.

[slinkerwink]

2. looks like Dean gained six points, and Clark dropped seven

ouch.

[Kahuna]

5. Looks like Dean got a Gore bounce. It won't last.

nt

[MidwestTransplant]

6. Ouch is right

and come Nov. 2004 you will be saying a lot more than ouch if Dean is the nominee. Of course then you will just say nobody could have beat Bush and Dean did better than any other candidate would have.

[slinkerwink]

7. POOP

[HFishbine]

3. Woodruf reporting on CNN

That a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll after the Saddam capture has Dean back down in the 20's. I can't find it online though. Anybody?

[hedda_foil]

9. Latest polls

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
News/New York Times Poll. Dec. 14-15, 2003. N=525 registered voters nationwide.

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Bush Democrat Can't Say
Until
Chosen
(vol.) None/
Won't
Vote (vol.) Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/14-15/03 44 40 8 1 7
12/10-13/03 42 41 11 2 4
11/10-13/03 41 43 12 1 3
10/20-21/03 46 34 16 0 4
9/28 - 10/1/03 44 44 7 1 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Dec. 14, 2003. N=512 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.3.

.

"If President Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for President Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Bush Democrat Another
Party's
Candidate
(vol.) Depends
(vol.) Not
Sure
% % % % %
12/14/03 44 33 1 9 12
12/13/03 46 40 1 6 7
11/03 43 40 2 8 8
9/03 42 40 2 9 7
7/03 45 36 3 10 7
5/03 47 32 2 12 7
4/03 52 24 4 14 6
1/03 41 34 3 16 6
12/02 42 28 4 20 6
10/02 * 45 31 3 17 4
* Among registered voters
.

"If the next election for president were held today, and George W. Bush were running as the Republican candidate and were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

George
W. Bush Howard
Dean Depends
(vol.) Neither/
Other (vol.) Not
Sure
% % % % %
12/14/03 52 31 3 4 10
12/13/03 51 39 1 4 5
11/03 50 35 2 6 8
9/03 48 35 3 7 8
7/03 52 30 3 7 8
.

George
W. Bush Wesley
Clark Depends
(vol.) Neither/
Other (vol.) Not
Sure
% % % % %
12/14/03 53 28 2 4 13
12/13/03 50 34 2 4 10
11/03 49 37 2 5 7
9/03 45 38 2 5 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[TexasPatriot]

12. that's not it

something new that doesnt seem to be online yet...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Some Gore bounce

..."other" is up?
anyway, looks like Kerry and Sharpton did very well in terms of percentage increase.

[dsc]

8. Dean went up 6

Kerry 3 and Sharpton 2. (which BTW isn't evan a real increase due to MOE). Your post gives voodoo math a good name.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. The numbers don't lie

Kerry's up 42%, Sharpton 67%, and Dean 24%.
But then again, why are we wasting our time on these meaningless surveys?

[Hep]

14. Fair enough points

Yeah, I agree that polls are shady. But they're fun.

Anyway would you rather have 24% of a million dollars, 67% of twenty dollars, or 42% of a thousand dollars?

[mzmolly]

11. And this one...

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Dec. 14, 2003. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary (from a total sample of 512 adults nationwide).

.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote: ?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean?"


Howard Dean 25
Wesley Clark 11
Richard Gephardt 11
Joe Lieberman 9
John Kerry 5
Dennis Kucinich 4
John Edwards 3
Carol Moseley Braun 2
Al Sharpton 2

[Ficus]

13. this would be relevant

if we had a national primary.

[Ksec]

15. I fear our party is damaged

Too many hard feelings and such to switch when the general election comes round.

And we need every vote we can get.

[slinkerwink]

17. it'll be alright