With Clark Pounding Dean in Oklahoma....Will a Dean Victory

[deminflorida]

over Dick Gephardt in Iowa spell funeral bells for Dean's campaign....

Look at the Feb. 3 showdown:

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
South Carolina
Oklahoma

This morning Clark is pounding Dean in Oklahoma 34-21, and only trailing Dean now in S.C. by one point, a state which was to go to John Edwards...

Also note Clark trails Dean in Arizona by only 2 points...

If Gephardt drops out after Iowa, I'll bet you Missouri goes to Clark as well.

Feb. 3 could well be a four state win for Wes Clark with Arizona, Missouri, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. Then with Edwards , and Lieberman probably dropping out, where does everyone think they're supporters will go?

One word, It's On Baby, It's On.....

[Hep]

1. So Clark is losing to Dean in every state you mentioned but one

And you use this info as the foundation for your "funeral bells" speculation?

[deminflorida]

2. Losing by only only one or two points, Amazing isn't it!!!

n/t

[Hep]

4. What's amazing about it?

Other than the fact that Dean is leading in states that people here have been claiming he can never lead in?

Clark's a great candidate. Great competition. I'll be happy to vote for him. But I don't know what's amazing.

[deminflorida]

7. What's Amazing is that I see Clark after only three or four month

campaign, overtaking Dean in these key states...That's what's Amazing...

[Hep]

10. Amazing that you can see it?

You're a pessimistic Clark supporter then? I mean it's one thing for you to find it amazing that he's doing so well despite being a knuckledragging idiot. But he's a great candidate, so it shouldn't be amazing that he's doing well. And considering the hype he got leading up to his announcement, it shouldn't be amazing that it has happened over a few months.

What would be amnazing would be for Kucinich to take the lead.

[TLM]

19. Since when is Oklahoma a key state?

The amazing thing is that Dean is beating Clark in all but one of those states... yet Dean hasn;t campaigned there hardly at all.

RIght now Dean is focused on NH, Iowa, and SC... and is winning all three.

When Dean turns his attention to these other states and the campaign offices in those states go full swing, Clark will be a distant memory.

[eleny]

8. Coming into the race so late and getting so far

...is what's amazing.

[Hep]

11. I don't see why.

If he didn't have confidence that he could do this well, he never would have run. It's just baffling.

[HFishbine]

3. Link? Source?

???

[deminflorida]

5. Here ya go....

Tue Dec 16th, 2003 at 23:39:43 UTC

"Whether you like automated polling or not, fact is SUSA's results were better than Zogby's and above average compared to the rest in 2002. That said, these results sure are interesting. The Oklahoma numbers make sense, the SC numbers are crazy. Note that SUSA pushes leaners, so that could have something to do with the results.
Both polls are post-Gore endorsement. No trends lines (I think -- I don't recall previous SUSA polls of these two states)."

http://dailykos.com/user/kos

Oklahoma
Clark 34
Dean 21
Lieberman 11
Other 11
Edwards 8
Gephardt 8
Kerry 4

South Carolina
Dean 21
Clark 20
Edwards 15
Sharpton 15
Gephardt 10
Undecided 7
Lieberman 5
Braun 4
Kerry 3
Kucinich 1

[CMT]

6. pounding?

He is ahead in a state where he is expected to do well. Dean is a solid second well ahead of anybody else trailing. OK is a conservative state and a yankee from NE doing that well is good. I think Dean would take a solid second in OK happily. They don't expect to win everywhere. The thing is to win somewhere every Tuesday.

Most recent Missouri poll has Dean a solid second in Missouri.

In Arizona two polls in the last week came out one showing Dean up by ten-points and another by two-points.

In SC a new poll gives Dean a 1-point lead in a southern state most people thought he wouldn't do well in. If he comes anywhere near winning SC it will be interpeted as a Dean victory.

New Mexico, recent polls look good for Dean and Dean probably can do well in Delaware.

Right now I would say the odds are for Dean to win:
Arizona
New Mexico (a caucus state where organization is everything)
Delaware
North Dakota
Missouri (if Gep is out, otherwise a solid second)

I think he will come in a solid second in Oklahoma and there is a 50/50 chance in a large field that he actually might win in SC otherwise he will do either a strong second or third.

A Dean victory in Iowa will bring good publicity and will help in NH where he is already leading by a large margin. These two early states will give Dean strong publicity which will help him in the Feb 3 states if he does well. Dean is also favored in the early DC primary.

[deminflorida]

9. If Dean loses four states on Feb. 3 he's in the hurt locker...

period. Plus where will all the other candidate supporters go?

That's the big question here....

[Hep]

12. And if Dean takes ALL of the 2/3 states?

How amazing will THAT be, Dean fans?

[CMT]

13. note that Dukakis lost several southern primaries in '88

including SC, TN, Mo, Ok, NC, ect and still won the nomination easily. I actually think Dean will do better than that. I think he will win Az, NM, ND, and Del. for sure on Feb 3 and do respectably or better in the rest. It will be more than enough to claim victory if that happens. But time will tell.

**also Virginia caucuses are on Feb 3, and most recent poll (last week) gave Dean a strong lead in this state.

Only a few days after Feb 3 on the 7th is Washington and Michigan caucuses and Dean is expected to do well in both followed by on the 8th the Maine caucuses.

[stickdog]

18. Where will Clark's support go when he pulls out after losing in SC

despite focusing all of his attention there?

[KittyWampus]

20. Focusing All His Attention In SC??? You're Misinformed

Again

[mikehiggins]

14. Here's why its significant

Howard Dean has been planning this run since at least 2000. He has come up with some original ideas, original tactics, organized extensively, "got" how to use the Internet, took full advantage of the growing discontent with the "conservative" leadership of the party and has raised a godawful amount of money in small donations. His supporters voted in sufficient to encourage MoveOn, itself a new phenomena, to endorse Dean and contribute money. The Dean MeetUp effort almost entirely put MeetUp on the map as a legitimate political venue. He even was endorsed by the guy who won the popular vote in 2000.

His competition consists of several professional politicians, elected to high Federal office, at least two of whom have also been planning their races since the Florida theft. (to give credit where credit is due, Lieby didn't declare until after Gore made it clear he was not going to run himself.)

Clark entered the race three months ago with nothing but some good reviews, a nifty keen resume and some money raised by the draft Clark movement. He entered the race later than Senator Graham, Florida's favorite son, who somehow was unable to get his campaign going due to a lack of organisation and time in which to catch up.

So now we're looking at polls that say Clark is nearing the same levels as Dean in many states.

That is significant, and SHOULD be significant to anyone trying to decide who to support for President.

Dean is a politician who has done a good job of using his experience and his talents to forge a winning effort.

Clark is not a politician but he is a public figure who is now nipping at Dean's heels in a campaign that most people, using conventional wisdom, have already declared is Dean's.

Let's wait until the dust settles before offering anyone the laurel wreath. The ending may not be the one everyone expects.

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. You are getting carried away

Dean is still the favorite, and I am backing Clark. The real point though is that claims that the nomination is all wrapped up for Dean are way premature. Clark still has a decent fighting chance. Not many delegates are selected in Iowa and NH.

[Jerseycoa]

16. Pounding?

Not really. But he gets credit, I hope, for pulling up there in so short a campaign against such well-established and longer-running campaigns. That's what's impressive. We don't need to exaggerate.

But, yes! "It's On Baby, It's On....." :bounce:

[stickdog]

17. * lowered expectations *

Will Dean's win in SC end Clark's stillborn campaign?

[bobbyboucher]

21. "That's why they play the game"

It won't be long until we get to vote, then we'll see.