A really great editorial on candidates and polls from (GASP!) FOX news!

[wyldwolf]

--- Yes, I know it's FOX. ----

This whole Gore-Dean thing got me thinking. Everyone's crowned Howard Dean (search) the inevitable nominee. Game over. All this without one caucus, one primary, one contest -- anywhere. Not one vote has been cast. But yet it seems like the die has been cast.

Says who?

Imagine if a tall, lanky backwoodsman named Abraham Lincoln had to rely on polls before seeking the presidency back in 1860. He'd have been laughed off the ballot before there was a ballot.

Harry Truman didn't poll well in 1948. But last time I checked, he won in 1948.

Richard Nixon was a third choice among Republicans polled in 1967. He went on to get his party's nomination and the election in 1968.

Look, for all I know, these polls are right. Howard Dean is "the" guy in New Hampshire, maybe now Iowa too.

But I can remember when Eugene McCarthy was suddenly "the" guy in 1968. When Ed Muskie was "the" guy in 1972. And when a guy named Scoop Jackson was "the" guy in 1976.

Polls shouldn't elect presidents. We should.

more...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,105403,00.html

[tsipple]

1. Well, Sort Of...

Yes, we -- actually the "we" in a few select states -- elect the Democratic nominee.

But the best analogy is that it's an Olympic figure skating competition, and election day is when the judges (us) hold up those numbered cards.

The performances are going on right now. The candidates are out there skating. Dean is doing repeated quadruples flawlessly.

He's still skating, and so are the others. But the last note will play in a few weeks, and the judges will raise their scorecards on the just-concluded performances.

[deminflorida]

2. That maybe how you and the Dean campaign......

might want it to work after Iowa and New Hampshire. But there are fifty United States, and while not all of them run primaries, the ones that do don't necessarily fall in line with Iowa and N.H. Especially this year when the candiates are from a party trying to oust an incumbent. I know it looked pretty routine and scripted in 2000 when the republicans were running with Bush and McCain as his challanger but you have to remember, republicans are very structured and take really good orders from the RNC, (think of it as a top down approach). They are extremly organized at following the party line, I'll give them that. If there is a such thing as Bossism as Sharpton stated last night, it certainly exists in the republican party.

Democratic voters reflect local politics, local political issues and concerns as well as preferences for candidates much better than republicans, just my opinion. (Why the hell do you think Bush has gotten away with pretending he's a southerner from Texas for so long).

The primary race for the Democratic nomination will be vastly different from what you saw in 2000, with Gore/Bradley - Bush/McCain. Considering the number of candidates running the voters will have a broader range of choices to express their regional, social, ideological preferences.

Don't expect people like Sharpton, Braun, or Kucinich to drop like flies after N.H. money is really not an issue for them because hell they haven't had any to spend, and are still around. Look for them to hurt moderate candidates that need minority votes in liberal states and liberal platform candidates running in conservative/moderate states.

Nope this election will be close and no matter who endorses who, it will be decided just before the primary. I don't see Dean nor Clark (who I thing will become the two main contenders) dropping out of this at all, mainly because Clark has a string of southern primaries at the end he could use to make a final sprint towards the nomination.

Like the 2000 election, Florida will be critical.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

3. ha ha - FOX won't be the #1 network during the elections

They have peaked, and everyone knows that they are heavily slanted towards Republicans, from die hard Republicans to random people who don't know much about politics.

This election will be huge, and people aren't going to go to FOX - they'll choose CNN/ABC/CBS/NBC. And people who know will be getting info from the internet.

FOX is basically trying to recruit an Alan Colmes audience in the next few months. I won't bother giving hits to their pathetic "liberal" stand-ins.