Dean, Clark Very Close in National Polls

[maha]

I worked out an average of four most recent polls of likely Dem voters (Associated Press, Pew Research, Ipsis-Reid Cook, and CNN Time) and these are the results:

Dean 16.75
Clark 14.25
Gephardt 11.5
Lieberman 11.25
Kerry 9.5
Edwards 5.25
Sharpton 4.25
Braun 3.75
Kucinich 2.5

Not sure 21

I post this because I keep running into people who say that Clark is fading or that his campaign hasn't caught fire. But, nationally, only three percentage points separate him from front-runner Dean.

You can find the polls at http://www.pollingreport.com/

These polls were all done before the Gore endorsement of Dean. A big deal, certainly, but I don't think it will shake up the race all that much. I predict the endorsement will give Dean a little bump, which will come mostly out of Lieberman.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

1. Latest Gallup Poll Shows Dean 8 Points Ahead

Although I agree with your general premise. Still, if you're looking at recent national polls, you have to include that one, too.

DTH

[maha]

2. In that case

If I average in the Gallup Poll with the others, it puts Dean at 23 percent and Clark at 18.5 percent. Clark is still the main contender after Dean.

[QC]

3. I don't understand the media/Deaniebaby party line that Clark is finished.

It seems to me that he is doing quite well. I'm fairly certain that seven other candidates wish their campaigns were "fizzling" like his.

[lastliberalintexas]

7. Actually

the poster who started the thread about why Clark hasn't caught fire yet is a Kerry supporter. Just wanted you to know. :-)

[Hep]

16. And I don't understand why some people say "partyline"

as if its anything more than a handful of jerks making the statement. Way to take the views of the few and apply them to the many. Takes a LOT of integrity.

[TLM]

18. Clark does well on national name recognition...

but look at state primaries and you see why people say he's over.


Clark came in way too late, had soem campaign problems at the worst times, pulled out of a key states and lost key support... at this point Clark will likely win a few southern states to try and make a bid for the VP slot.

[Cloud]

4. I would still like a Dean/Clark ticket.

But I think it may not happen as Hillary was attacking Dean and the Clintons seem to want Clark.

That would be a great ticket. Dean would tear up Bush in a debate unless Bush gets Rove to do the talking for him like usual. Clark would also tear up Cheney.

[in_cog_ni_to]

9. cloud,

Clark has already said he will not be Dean's VP. It won't happen. If you want to see Clark on the ballot you should support him for the President because VP is out of the question.

[TLM]

19. Wow what an arrogant power hungry mad mad...

Guess he's too good for the VP slot and too superior for anything but assention to the the top leadership position.


Obviously Clark is not interested in doing whatever he can for the country... he just wants the power of the presidency. Anybody running should be happy witht eh VP slot.

Yet another reason to show Clark the door.

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. Oh, puhleeze.

If people were actually concerned about doing what's best for this country they certainly wouldn't be voting for Dean. He won't win. JMCPO

[Kool Kitty]

25. Would you feel the same way

if the shoe was on the other foot-would you think that Dean would be content with the VP position? I'm not bashing Dean, I like him and if he gets the nomination, he's got my vote-just think about what you're saying there.

[HoosierClarkie]

27. Show him to the door because he's running for president not vp?

I guess you think he should be collecting money for the vp slot huh?Maybe he doesn't like Dean. Ever thought of that?

[Donna Zen]

5. Maha

Al Gore now tells us how to vote for our own good. Democracy is just to messy, so Daddy Al is taking charge.

Whatever the polls say, no longer matter. Become a Dean worshipper or be gone. This party doesn't stop for votes.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. Doesn't that just hack you off!

It does me. I'm still shocked that he said the things he said in that speech.

[HFishbine]

11. Like what

specifically?

[TLM]

20. That Gore did not support the general

Now Gore is the enemy of the Clark Corps.

[in_cog_ni_to]

23. THAT is NOT what's at issue here.

I beg to differ. It's his TIMING and his arrogant attitude telling supporters of other candidates to step in line behind Dean. We haven't even cast one friggin vote yet and he's telling people who to support. I couldn't care less who Gore endorses...endorsements never sway my vote. His timing and attitude sucks.

[Justice]

26. Some Just Don't Get It

What I've read today is people reacting to Gore's endorsement not because he endorsed Dean, but they are reacting to:

1. The timing of the endorsement - too early.

2. The words Al used - citing Reagan and asking us to stand together. If he is for Dean - who do you think he is asking us to stand together with?

3. After telling us to stand together, he lies about saying Dean stood alone against the war.

Gore is not the enemy of anyone, least of all this Clark supporter. I was fine with Gore's endorsement and the words he choose (and don't even care about the timing b/c he is free to do what he wants) but I didn't like 2 and 3. I wanted to hear why Gore like Dean, I didn't want to hear Gore tell me to fall into line.

I have read very few comments that say Gore shouldn't have done this.

[kodi]

14. i like clark better than dean, but clark has not built an organization

dean has, and who has the best organization usually wins the nomination.

as i said on another thread, even clark when referring to winning in bosnia, said that you need ground troops to win, clark has not built a ground organization that comes close to dean's.

were this june 2003, maybe he would have by now, but its about too late for it to happen and capture the nomination.

sometimes generals dont matter as much as the armies they build and dean has a vastly better army.

i am disappointed about it, but i have to face the realities, dean can snap is fingers and get tens of thousands of supporters working in unison. clark cant do that, and by the time he could, its all over.

[bowens43]

12. So prominent Dems

should just keep their mouths shut? That's silly. Gore has EVERY right to speak his mind and support whomever he pleases. If you don't want to support Dean, don't.

[in_cog_ni_to]

6. Hmmm.

Not bad for a fading candidate. He's the #2 contender and I can't wait until the NH Primary. Should be very interesting. Even at 8 points behind in the Gallup poll, Clark has it narrowed down to a single digit...Not bad for a 3 month old campaign.

[HFishbine]

10. Interesting way to look at it, BUT....

You didn't use the most recent polls. Using the four most recent polls at the source you cite, the actual averages are:

Dean: 19.5%
Clark: 15.5%
Gephardt: 13.5%
Lieberman: 11.0%
Kerry: 9.0%
Edwards: 5.75%

It's also important to recognize that there is a month between the newest and oldest results.

I think it's more instructive to look at the trends as revealed in the latest poll (Dec. 5-7):

Dean: 25% (17, 17, 16, 13)
Clark: 17% (17, 14, 15, 18)
Gephardt: 14% (13, 12, 12, 10)
Lieberman: 10% (13, 15, 12, 13)
Edwards: 7% (6, 7, 6, 6)
Kerry: 7% (9, 10, 10, 11)

Undecided: 10% (13, 15, 18, 15)

Where's that increase in Dean support coming from? Lieberman, Kerry and undecideds.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[SEAburb]

13. What is the margin of error

for that poll.

[Snellius]

15. If this poll were reduced to only Dean and Clark?

There's little doubt that Clark would get the lion's share of the Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry and Edwards vote. With Gore coming out for Dean, there must be a lot of pressure on some other candidates to drop out.

[HFishbine]

17. More unsubstantiated supposition

or wishful thinking, perhaps. But certainly nothing supported by any evidence. In fact, there's reason to believe the opposite.

As Lieberman and Kerry shrink in national polls, Dean climbs while Clark is flat. Hard to see how this can argue that those candidates' supporters are leaving for Clark.

Also, Clark is the second choice of only 3% of Iowa voters. Dean, on the other hand is the second choice of 21% -- more than any other candidate.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=198

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[kodi]

22. its based on the general attitudes of the candidates and their supporters

if one uses the assumption that dean is to the left of clark and the positions of the other candidates is taken into account, those closest to clark or dean go to them respectively, clark gains more than dean, because most of the rest of the weight of the numbers are suporting people to the right of dean.

however, its not just positions of the candidates and their supporters that is to be considered, but also advertisements, and media exposure and campaign strength to get out the vote.

no, i dont think gephardt supporters want dean more than clark, but kucinich supporters probably would, as would braun supporters, lieberman's supporters would probably select clark over dean, kerry's i think would split. edwards, ditto, sharptons? who knows? dean likely but voters or those polled factor as well which candidate people consider the best chance to beat bush.

comparing dean to clark support is skewed dramatically because of the vastly superior campaign organization that dean has which can deliver concetrated support.

dean has this by a mile, but does that mean that if all thngs were equal in a 2 man race that dean has greater support? no, but that is not what counts, what counts is organization.

dean has it. clark doesn't.

but, if all things were equal, i would go with clark because i think he would be a better president.

and i have given to each of their campaigns.

[Snellius]

24. Not at all. My fear is that they will try to sabotage Dean

I don't really have a horse in this race. I think Dean actually has the best chance of beating Bush, but now that he has a pronounced lead, I can see the full party apparatus coming down on his head. Lieberman has already started on the Today Show this morning. Edwards will probably follow soon.