Kerry gaining ground in IA and NH

[kerryistheanswer]

New Pew Study Out. Based on the research methodology and reputation, it's more reliable then Zogby.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=198

IA
Dean 29
Gephardt 21
Kerry 18

NH
Dean 34
Kerry 20
Clark 8

If Kerry finishes second in IA, will it help in NH? My bet is yes.

[La_Serpiente]

1. I think it should be noted

that it is not important Kerry be on top now. However, it does show that, based on this poll, that the momentum is moving in his direction.

Yet, I will wait for other polls to come out to see if the pattern is repeated.

[liberalnurse]

8. Not any longer......

Dean just took the prize.

[sistersofmercy]

10. First of all I think your post is mean-spirited

The Gore endorsemnet will give Dean more momentum, no doubt, but it will be the Clinton endorsement that will seal the deal IMHO. I have no idea who Clinton will endorse.

[arcos]

13. there will be no Clinton endorsement...

his spokesperson said so. Same for Hillary.

[flpoljunkie]

23. Pew maintains that voter opiniion is still fluid in early primary states..

Summary of (Pew) Finding

Voter opinion is still fluid in the early Democratic primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and especially South Carolina. As with the candidates themselves, there are significant disagreements among likely primary voters in these pivotal states on such key issues as how to deal with the postwar situation in Iraq, gay marriage and tax cuts. Most voters in New Hampshire, and especially Iowa, say the war in Iraq was a mistake. But at the same time, majorities in both states say U.S. troops should remain there until a stable government can be established.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is the strongest candidate overall. He is the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, with a 34%-20% lead over Sen. John Kerry. Dean also is running ahead in Iowa, where he leads Rep. Dick Gephardt by a smaller margin (29%-21%). But Dean's advantage in these states is not insurmountable. The horse race in Iowa between Dean and Gephardt is much closer when only strong support is factored, which is a relevant indicator in Iowa's caucus format.

(Race is not yet over, and Gore's endorsement does not end the race for the nomination--by a long shot. Tonight's debate should be interesting.)

[DrFunkenstein]

2. Thanks For The Good News

I've been grumbling to myself since the Gore bomb dropped. But without a doubt, a strong showing in Iowa will be a huge boost in NH. If Kerry can beat out Gep, he'd be set up as the ABD vote. And the more people get to know D, I'm sure the more they will be ABD.

[CMT]

5. not necessarily

While I admit this poll is better than the other recent ones (and conducted more recently I should add) Dean has extremely high positive ratings in Iowa and New Hampshire according to Zogby and American Research Group. For instance his favorable rating in Iowa is over 70% and in NH is 69% with only 13% unfavorable. These two states without doubt have been paying more attention than the country at large to the candidates.

[robsul82]

7. Anybody But Dean? That's disgusting.

Talk about letting petty differences take our eye off the prize. And I bet you are one of those "Oh, if Dean wins, I'll be PROUD to support him!" haters too. Disgusting.

Later.

RJS

[sistersofmercy]

3. I'm excited to see his numbers go up!

I do believe his campaign pace is picking up!

[phirili]

4. Very good; the soldier has his back to the wall and he's fighting back

against the repugs ambush.

Looking forward to more good news.

[sandnsea]

6. First in union voters

Today's Gore announcement will just put the fire in him even more. If he uses it to sharpen his message like he has in the past, I look for an exciting few weeks ahead.

What really surprised me was the Iowa union vote going to Kerry; 24 to Gephardt's 18 to Dean's 11. So much for aloof; working people like him just fine.

[blm]

9. The utility workers and fire fighters on the ground there

are very loyal to Kerry. I can see Kerry and Gephardt instilling worker loyalties for their years of work for them under real duress from Republican thugs. Nice to see it appreciated.

[Don Claybrook]

18. Yeah, except that Gephardt carries water for Republican thugs

I'm referring to his aide in Missouri threatening to get the state GOP to overturn a law permitting collective bargaining by state workers. The threat was issued so as to keep unions from endorsing Howard Dean. Between that, and standing shoulder-to-shouler with the Moron every time he gets a chance, I have no use for Dick Gephardt, not as a candidate, not as a Congressman.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Gephardt did not endorse that action and the aide apologized to all

so don't slam him on that one isolated incident.

[Don Claybrook]

24. I will slam Gephardt on whatever I want to slam Gephardt on

I will also continue to assume that this is a part of a larger pattern with the Gephardt campaign, and not isolated. Tigers don't change their stripes, you know.

Additionally, I don't give a rat's ass if the aide apologized. The aide should have been fired, post haste, and Gephardt should've been the one issuing the apology.

Again, my larger problem with Gephardt is that he's been a suckup and an apologist for George W. Bush.

[mb7588a]

11. kick n/t

[oasis]

12. kick

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Thank God! Some good news for Kerry!

He's getting a big 60th birthday present from me on the 11th.

[GalleryGod]

15. Smells Like the "Real Deal"= "The Comeback Kid"

It would Be Too Sweet to Even Contemplate.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. For those sick of hearing about Gore.....

This is for you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Does Anybody Disagree With My Thesis That New Hampshire

is the Texas Death Match for Kerry and Dean....

Two men enter......

One man leaves.....

I don't care what the pundits say a loss in New Hampshire is fatal for Dean or Kerry and a loss in Iowa is fatal for Gephardt.....


Iowa is essentially Gep's backyard and New Hampshire is essentially Kerry and Dean's backyard.....


Clinton was able to spin a NH loss into a win cuz he was a southerner who lost New Hampshire to a New Englander....


Here's my prediction Dean knocks out Gep in IA and Kerry in NH...

The interesting question is who emerges as the main challenger to Dean after New Hampshire....

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. It depends on the specific numbers

For example, If Dean blows out Kerry then it's all over. If Kerry can stay within 10 points he goes on.

In another reading, if Kerry and Clark's totals together are more than Dean's, it can be made as an arguement for a military veteran.

If Kerry wins it would be the political story of the century.

[Don Claybrook]

22. Dean's Main Challenger after New Hampshire

George W. Humanrightsabuser will be Dean's only viable challenger after NH.

[HFishbine]

21. More reliable than Zogby?

The Pew survey has a margin of error of 6% in Iowa and 5% in NH. THe Zogby polls have a margin of error of 4.5% in each.

[Hep]

25. It's always better

if it tells you more of what you want to hear. It's still a poll.

[DemNoir]

26. Everyone is ignoring one fact

I'm a Dean supporter, but the fact is not one single person has cast a vote for Howard Dean. The expectations are so high now that the bubble could easily burst with just one stumble.