California Democratic Council straw poll results – somewhat shocking

[pruner]

Endorsement results from the CDC Area and Regional 2004 pre-primary endorsement meetings:
(Saturday, December 6 and Sunday, December 7, 2003, held in Fresno, Los Angeles, Monterey, Sacramento, San Diego, Santa Clara, Visalia and Yucaipa)

PRESIDENTIAL STRAW POLL
(no endorsement given - 60 percent required)

Governor Howard Dean - 56.11 percent
Congressman Dennis Kucinich - 17.19 percent
General Wesley Clark - 14.48 percent
no other candidate received more than 6 percent

http://www.cdc-ca.org/result03.htm

[moz4prez]

1. here's what even MORE shocking

1972
March--CDC Convention amended its constitution to permit endorsement of a presidential candidate, but the Convention did not avail itself of this opportunity. McGovern received 56% of the vote, but fell short of the 60% required for official endorsement . . .

and history repeats itself! Go Dean!

[sandnsea]

2. Uhm, McGovern lost

Let's not have history repeat itself.

[pruner]

3. giddyup Don Quixote…

State leaders, polls since 11/10:
Dean: 8 states (DC, IA, NH, SC, MA, NY, FL, NJ)
Lieberman: 3 states (DE, OK, CT)
Edwards: 1 state (NC)
Clark, Gephardt, Kerry: 0

State leaders, all polls:
Dean: 16 (DC, IA, NH, AZ, NM, SC, MI, ME, WI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, FL, NJ)
Lieberman: 5.5 (DE, OK, TN(t), CT, OH, PA)
Clark: 3.5 (TN(t), CA, GA, AL)
Gephardt: 2 (MO, IL)
Edwards: 1 (NC)
Kerry: 0

http://ca-pol-junkie.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/7/55534/5196

[sandnsea]

4. McGovern still lost

That was just a bad example.

From P&C, the averages, things are actually still fluid. There's other polls besides the ones you post as well, I'm sure you're aware. You're discounting the fact that Dean isn't really very many people's second choice either.

Howard Dean 26%
Joe Lieberman 11.4%
Dick Gephardt 9%
John Kerry 7.9%
Wesley Clark 7.3%
John Edwards 4.4%
Al Sharpton 2.8%
Carol Braun 1.7%
Dennis Kunnich 1.5%
undecided 28%
moe +-3.4%

[pruner]

6. averages of what?

Dean is the second choice of more of the other candidate's supporters in IA & NH than anyone else.

you act as though people don't like him but he has the best favorable/unfavorable ratings… in NH it's 78/12

[sandnsea]

9. Go look at your dupe

The answer is right there in P&C.

[Zynx]

13. Not many people's second choice? You're not good at math.

If he has 56% of the first choice vote, those can't name him as their second choice. Of the remaining 44%, 26% chose him or 59% of the non-Dean supporters.

[jumptheshadow]

11. Giddyup, Don Quixote

Isn't that what people said to Dean six months ago?

[moz4prez]

5. THAT WAS PRECISELY MY POINT, SANDNSEA

:eyes:

[Gore1FL]

7. Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

n/t

[moz4prez]

10. ok

you must admit, it's one heck of a coincidence. Dean detractors, many of whom were alive AAAAAAAND eligible to vote in '72, disavow him as another McGovern. And then, these CDC strawpoll results.

On edit: is there any way we could see the CDC's PAST pres. primary endorsements? from '92? '88? and onwards?

[Le Taz Hot]

12. I'll see what I can do

to find that information for you; however, it's 4:40 am here and the Regional V.P. may get just a little upset if I give him a ring at this hour. B-)

On Edit: Meanwhile, you might be interested in this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=97551

[moz4prez]

14. thanks for the link

have you decided to run yet?

[Le Taz Hot]

15. LOL

Not gonna happen. However, I am going to spend the next 5 days trying to find someone for CD19, even if it's only a sacrificial lamb.

[sandnsea]

8. zing

Flew right over my head!!

[Le Taz Hot]

16. I forgot to mention:

notice Kucinich's numbers. I posted information about Kucinich's California popularity at the end of July from the CDC and then again at the Endorsement Caucus in L.A. in October. OK, granted, the CDC has a tendancy to be more liberal than the CDP but if Kucinich can hang on through the March 2 primaries, I think Kucinich supporters will be pleasantly surprised at the support he's receiving in California.

[JohnKleeb]

17. but he should withdraw

;)
I am very happy about his numbers, I think he'll do good in CA.

[Le Taz Hot]

18. Now, John,

you KNOW I have never said or intimated any such thing. I've got some fundamental disagreements with the esteemed Congressman but I have a great deal of respect for him for many reasons.

I knew he had strong support here in Fresburg but it wasnt' until the October Endorsement Caucus in L.A. that I saw it was statewide. I think Kucinich supporters will be doing the happy dance on March 3. :hi:

[JohnKleeb]

19. early morning sick sarcaism

Saw another, who do you think should withdraw. I've always thought we to be bigger than our numbers. I was just saying that because I saw a thread like that in P/C, sorry things get tiring at times and I am sick too.

[Le Taz Hot]

20. And I didn't post to it,

did I? OK, OK, I'll quit pickin' on ya. ;-) Here, have some of my famous turkey and dumplings and a homemade persimmon (sp?) cookie for desert. B-) (Damn I'm getting awefully Martha Stewart these days.)

[JohnKleeb]

21. Dont pick on someone who has been sick for the last week

:D
sounds good to me :9 *gorges in food*, ow tummy.