New Zogby Poll From Iowa

[slinkerwink]

Dean Regains Slight Iowa Lead in Neck and Neck Race With Gephardt, 26% - 22%; Kerry 3rd in Single Digits in Latest Zogby International Poll



With less than seven weeks remaining until Iowa’s January 19 caucus vote, Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has re-taken a slight lead in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination. In December 1- 2 polling of 500 likely Iowa caucus voters by Zogby International, Dean jumped back ahead of Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, the earlier Iowa front-runner, 26% - 22%, yet within the poll’s margin of statistical error.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry was third with 9%, followed by North Carolina Senator John Edwards at 5%. Nearly three in ten (28%) remain undecided, providing some hope for the trailing candidates.

[Zomby Woof]

1. New Zomby Poll from Iowa

The corn is ahead in the polls by an ear! *groan* What's an Iowa joke without being, um, corny?

Hey, you do know that when you see the words "Zogby Poll" from now on, you will think ZOMBY POLL.

On a serious note, I understand your excitement from a "horse race" perspective, but Iowa is no place to be counting chickens (jeez, how many livestock and corn jokes can I make?) quite yet.

It has been many many years since a first-time candidate won Iowa AND the nomination. (For the Dems, I don't track the GOP as much).

That is not to say Dean won't get the nomination - only that there is no necessary relationship.

[slinkerwink]

2. do you mean a first-time presidential candidate?

[Zomby Woof]

4. yeah

As opposed to incumbents. Although I remember Kennedy putting up a serious challenge to incumbent Carter back in 1980 in Iowa (a GREAT SNL skit by the way, if you could ever catch it on a rerun someday).

I don't have the info handy - I just know that neither Dukakis or Clinton won there in their respective first candidacies. Gephardt (hey, would you be happy knowing I would vote for Dean ahead of him?) won in '88, btw. I don't expect him to win this year. In fact, I do think Dean will get Iowa.

Mondale probably won in 1984, although I'd look it up to make sure.

In any event, Dean probably will take Iowa, and the Big Mo' could be under way.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

3. You are silly (nt)

:) :)

[Dems Will Win]

5. Add at least 6% to Dean's Column to any Iowa poll

Any New Registers at the Caucus night or just before CAN NOT be counted as they are not on the voter lists yet! Dean will get nearly ALL of the new voters that he's drawing in. It might even be more than 6% but certainly not less. That means it's Dean 32%, Gephardt 22%. They think the number voting is going to soar from 60,000 in 2000 to 150,000 in 2004!

Gephardt (luckily) doesn't have a chance in Iowa unless he pulls at least 6 to 10 points ahead and even then I wouldn't bet against the DEAN MACHINE WITH 5,000 VOLUNTEERS.

[slinkerwink]

6. we'll see what happens!

;-)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

7. Can't wait to go to Iowa

And this is a big deal for me, I HATE the cold. Hate it, hate it, hate it. (Did I mention that I hate it? I intend to retire in Barbados or some other very warm place.)

We're scheduled to go during the first week in Jan. Other people from here (Northern Calif.) are going the next week. There's also a big Generation Dean contingent going at the end of December (during school break).

[burning bush]

8. Need a Source, Please Help!

I'm looking for a history of all US state primary and caucus results, as complete as possible.

Anyone know a good link?

Thanks a ton

bb