Was economy headed south when Bush took office?

[RememberJohn]

I say no - but need confirmation. Links anyone?

[jagguy]

1. yes

forget the links. Remember the dot com bust ? It was in all the papers.

[FlashHarry]

3. Bush was constantly talking down the economy

during the campaign, touting his 'tax cuts.' Officially, the recession began in March of '01, after he took office. But, the bubble had burst already, so it wasn't necessarily his fault--but it sure hasn't gotten any better in the two-and-a-half years he's been in office.

[jagguy]

6. true enough

but he also got stuck with 9/11, corporate accounting hijinks, off-shore outsourcing just to name a few.

Tough assignment.

[SharonAnn]

21. Excuse me, he himself did off-shore and outsourcing at Harken

He didn't get "stuck" with it, he's part of it. Better read up on *and his business dealinsg. And as far as the other companies? They're all his friends and cronies, remember? Enron and Andersen Consulting are good examples.

And as far as 9/11, I consider it his fault since he ignored all advice, recommendations and warnings about dealing with the terrorist threat. Also, he's the one who told the FBI to drop the investigations that were involving the Saudis and especially the bin Ladens.

To make it worse, his economic policies have only made the economic situation worse. He's done nothing to help create jobs, he's running up the debt at an unbelievable rate, and he has no plan to improve the situation.

[DieboldMustDie]

24. With a competent administration...

9/11 might never have happened.

[Skittles]

33. TOUGH ASSIGNMENT?

THE F***ER STOLE THE ELECTION AND WAS SO DERELICT IN HIS DUTY HE TOOK THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST OFF RIGHT BEFORE THE EVENTS OF 9/11.

[Capn Sunshine]

4. Dot Com Bust was oversimplified

The problem was a severe credit crunch brought on by a treasury market looking at Bush and saying "no money goes anywhere. It stays right here."

[TruthIsAll]

37. Oh, really..Here is proof that Bush has been an eco disaster

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=71505&mesg_id=71505&page=161

[MattNC]

2. yes

Another reason why presidents often get too much credit and blame for the health of the economy.

[buff2]

5. No

The economy went south after bu$h stole the Whitehouse,and anyone who can't see it is blinder than Stevie Wonder.

[Sirius_on]

9. Well not from my viewpoint

Being a Ex-tech sector employee I say it was going down in about Jan 2000. My company like many others had a high stock price in 98 and watched it drop in 99-00. My company was worth $78.50 in 98' and droped to $1.50 in May of 2000. The economy droped on Clintons watch, Bush just couldnt fix it much. 9/11 slowed down a market upswing, but the tax cuts kept it from recovering.

Like that $600 check did jack....I just spent it on the car payment.

[Chicagonian]

12. Didn't the non-event of "Y2K" affect the tech sector negatively...?

You use the month of Jan. 2000 as your start point...
weren't a lot of people hired by companies in the 2-3 years running up to y2k, to help alleviate the possible horrors predicted by some on account of the "problem"?
And when it all passed with no major malfunctions or downfall of civilization, companies felt safe in trimming their IT payrolls, and things started on th e downward slide, fueled by The Junta's constant harping about the impending doom& gloom recession that they were going to tax cut us a path to safety out of(deeper into is how it actually turned out).

So I would say "Yes" the economy was on the downward slide when The Junta seized power.

[Sirius_on]

31. My company was formed in the mid 90's

I used to work for Rhythms NetConnections. Its a DSL backbone company, I was a field tech. My company collaped due to no one taking a risk on my companies stock. We could get no loans to fund ourself through the building process. This took place in Early 2000. The tech sector was the reason for the collapse, and the collapse sure folded us fast.

[MrBenchley]

7. Not even close to true

As recently as May 2000 Greenspan RAISED the Federal Reserve rates to keep the economy from overheating. Go to Fortune, Business Week or Forbes, and you'll find stories during November and December 2000 pooh-poohing the idea that any recession was on the horizon.

Unemployment was at 4.1% and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was at 128.6 (it began plummeting in January 2001).

[Capn Sunshine]

8. Further, President Gore ...

would have recognized the need for gov't spending on new computer systems, creating the demand that would have bouyed the dot com bust; or mitigated it, thereby saving the economy from a severe recession. Not to mention he would NEVER have allowed the enegy company rape of the West Coast which sucked billions in working capital out of the system.

From a Tech standpoint,we are still perilously underfunded and underequipped in all levels of the FED with equipment issues; Gore recognized this.

Bushs cabal is old school warfare guys; they don't know from shit about upgrades.

:nuke:

[jagguy]

10. i don't think you could have spent any more money

on tech crap for the government. Billions were pissed away on failed systems.

[Capn Sunshine]

16. Sure you could have

On the RIGHT stuff. It would have been cheaper than the TRILLION the Pentagon can't account for now.
Maybe start with buying a bunch of quickbooks licenses?

[procopia]

11. Here's one:

Bush's Bushwa--The president and his aides keep lying about when the recession started:

http://slate.msn.com/id/2076134/

[Pepperbelly]

13. no doubt that the recession started under Bush's watch ...

March, 2001.

[DagmarK]

14. I think if it was.........the $1.3 trillion tax cut in 2001 SEALED it!!!!!

Absolutely!

I remember that stupid $300 check. a slight cushion on my mortgage for ONE month...that's it. Absurd.

Think about what $1.3 trillion put into focused spending could have done. Could easily bail out the soon-to-be bankrupted states......every last one of them! The money to the state governments in bulk could have started all sorts of job creation programs that would be creating more and more prosperity.......it would have been money spent to make money.....a huge return to the states...ie, the people.

[LoZoccolo]

15. I think we had to pay that back...

...the next year anyways, right?

[robbedvoter]

17. Link for the official estimate:

http://money.cnn.com/2001/11/26/economy/recession/#

Economists call it recession

November 26, 2001: 1:58
p.m. ET

Panel says downturn
began in March,
ending record 10-year
span of growth.
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The world's largest
economy sank into a recession in March, ending
10 years of growth that was the longest
expansion on record in the United States, a
group of economists that dates U.S. business
cycles said Monday.

The National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER), composed of academic economists from
Harvard, Stanford and other universities, more...

[JackSwift]

18. During the summer when Bush was up more than 15 points

the economy started "pausing", and when the election was uncertain, with Cheney saying how bad the Bush economy would be, it really went South.

[leftyandproud]

19. yes..and I don't think bush "talked" the economy down

we were in a natural cycle...a massive boom in the 90's...larger than most previous booms due to low interest rates and new technology (internet euphoria, etc) The bust was BAD...really bad, because things had gotten out of control. Nasdaq crashed 50% from its highs in 2000 and continued crashing afterwards...after the Bush tax cuts..it kept crashing...finally looked like we hit a bottom, then 9-11 happened, and you know the rest...Now we are in debt up to our eyeballs and I see no way out. We are screwed regardless of who is in office.

[cthrumatrix]

20. I agree....either party would have their hands full

.

[madrchsod]

22. the company i

worked for started to recieve fewer orders in 1999-2000 . the constuction equiment business they are in usaully see`s orders dropping one to one and a half years before the cycle of recession starts. they have been in business for 100 yrs so they have seen this happen before. the economy stalled before ******* left, but bush did the exact oppisite to start it up again...

[moondust]

23. I'd call it a cyclical downturn

exacerbated by Bush/Cheney beating up on it every chance they got.

[zoidberg]

25. No rational person could say it wasn't headed south before

Certainly you can argue that the economy has been worse under Bush than it would have been under Gore (consumer confidence from corporate scandals that Bush didn't go after, 9/11 might be partially Bush's fault, War in Iraq has shaken confidence...), but I don't think you can blame the tax cuts at all. The economic problem with larger defecits is that all that public borrowing crowds out private investment through higher interest rates. So far the higher interest rates haven't come to pass. Ten years from now you can blame problems on the tax cut, but not right now.

[Yavin4]

26. Devil's Advocate

So what if the economy was in bad shape. What in the hell has he done since? He's had three years, and you can't use 9/11 for everything.

Tell me, what was the economy and the deficit like when Clinton took over in 1993? The UE was higher then than it is today, and the deficit was at a then-record of $300 billion. Did Clinton whine that it was Bush I's fault?

[stevebreeze]

27. ok lets get some things stright!

The economy WAS effected by the Y2K bug. Many many companies spent money upgrading their computer systems in advance of Y2K. As a result the need to upgrade since has been less. Far too much wire was laid and other internet infrastructure was produced on the basis of the increased sales volume that could never be sustained.

Some of the blame of the economic stagnation is due to Greenspan’s and Clinton’s mishandling of the stock bubble


Greenspan raised interest rate on the rumor of phantom inflation starting about a year before the election. It is understood that it take 6 months to a year for interest rate changes to greatly affect the economy. It looks pretty much like Greenspan was trying to throw the election to Bush.

Bush has not only not done anything to fix the economy he has made it far worse for both the near and long term. The tax cuts of course will have the effect of far greater deficits causing long term higher interest rates. The trade deficits also have this same effect and so are also important. Bush's latest tax cut is designed to pump up the stock market. It is working as you all know the market, since the talk of the dividend and capital gains cuts have been circulating, has gone up 1000 points or so. The money to do this has been enticed out of the bond market. Less bidding for bonds of course has the effect of raising long term interest rates on things like mortgages. Mortgages have gone up one half of one percent and looks to go up at least that again in the near term. Mortgage rate increase like this are likely to take a serious toll on housing, the only sector of the economy helping to keep things afloat.

In short while many factors led to the economic problems Bush had had almost every thing he wanted from the get go. Certainly he is responsible from the point of his first “tax cut to save the economy” in 2001 and it still sucks due to his incompetence.


:kick:

[kalian]

28. Yes...

and it had nothing to do with Clinton.
It was just classical speculation and then some...

[Regice]

29. Does it even matter?

It may not have been all his fault but now it is ALL his responsibility. He has had time enough to turn things around.

[kentuck]

30. The stock market was going down...

It is debatable how much the stock market affects the rest of the economy.

[are_we_united_yet]

32. Blame or credit is not the issue

Its on your watch when you are president. Don't want to take the blame pick a different four years.

[whoYaCallinAlib]

34. Right or wrong . . . the president gets benefit for good economy

and blame for bad economy. Economists can argue till their faces turn blue about how much ANY president can really effect the economy (in my opinion, only at the margins)but it matters a twit. If it's good, the encumbant get reelected . . . if it's bad, the encumbant gets the boot.

[Snellius]

35. Airplanes don't crash every time they hit an air pocket

This has always been a truly stupid argument. What matters is not that the stock market declined before Bush took office, but what kept it going down ever since. Republicans seem to be using some kind of retrospective prophecy that turns upside down cause and effect.

[Jose Diablo]

36. It was 2000 year end...

At least in the industry I am in. I work for a company that builds production machines for the cable and wire industry. My specialty was/is the fiber optic cable production machines.

The last major start-up I was on was in November 2000. There have been rebuilds and minor activity, but no new machines.

Of the 10 plants in north america I installed equipment in during the 90's, 3 have shut their doors, and the rest went for about a year and half with no or very little production at all.

In the case of fiber optic cable (inter/intra city), the dot com meltdown may have been a minor factor. The major factor for the upheaval was advances in photonics brought the realization to the cable users, that the amount of glass in the ground already would meet their current and future demands far into the future. See Scientific American article dated January 18, 2001 "The Triumph of the Light"

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?colID=1&articleID=000E9724-331A-1C71-84A9809EC588EF21

As for the rest of the cable industry like copper cable used in constuction of homes and business, the took a bath too, but not as bad. There have been a few companies exiting the industry and selling their assets to the stonger players. The survivors are doing well now.

My point? I am sure the availabity of money (bankers)has a big influence on the economy. But there is far more to it. Technology change, confidence from the consumers built on having a secure future, like having a job. The state of our infrastructure, are our plants equipped with the latest and greatest. Where new plants are constructed. All of these things play a part. It is a very complex world we are in.