NO poll bounce from the Uday/Qusay deaths. PREDICT 50% by Aug. 20th.

[Brotherjohn]

I don't buy the line I've read here several times already that Bush's slide in the polls will be reversed (if only temporarily) by the deaths of Saddam's sons. If anything, the trust issue has exploded in the last couple of weeks and poll numbers just coming out show a "down-tick", even from the usual decline. Every poll conducted since July 10th has his numbers in the 50s. (http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm)

At best, I think Bush can expect a temporary levelling off of his numbers for a week or two.

PREDICTION: The first major poll (as reported by Pollingreport.com) to have Bush's approval falling below 50% will occur by August 20th. By September 20th, all major polls will have him at or below 50%. New war or not. Terrorist attack or not. Saddam / Osama dead or not. I think his trust is shot with a majority of voters, and our boys keep coming home in body bags.

[grasswire]

1. in ABC's insider newsletter...

...The Note, there is a tidbit today about overhearing an urgent conversation a former governor was having on a cell phone that talked about Bush's "internals" (WH internal polls) "collapsing" and his need to get on the phone with Rove.

[diplomats]

11. Was that conversation before Saddam's sons' demise?

BTW, I'd LOVE to know what his internal polls are showing.

[lcordero]

2. The Democrats need to challenge his integrity at every given

opportunity or try to implant doubt at the very least.

[StClone]

3. Why does it take deaths

To enliven the misgivings that should of occurred prior to the invasion and oil take-over?

[Frances]

4. You may be wrong

but I hope with all my heart that your prediction comes true.

[Beetwasher]

5. I agree. The Saddam's Son's story is done

It was at most a two dayer. What else needs to be said about it? Back to the smearing of Wilson story and the 9/11 report...Maybe in his day to day polling he'll have a couple point bump, and maybe it did something to stop the outright hemmorhaging, but then again, maybe not...I'm not all that concerned about it...It was a cheap and desperate gambit by the admin. and I think they've shot their wad...Not to mention what's gonna happen when/if it turns out they're not really dead (hehehe)...

[ima_sinnic]

6. the fact that U.S. troops will continue to be killed

ensures that the killing of Q&U will have no effect on poll numbers--it will just prove that the Iraqi guerrillas are NOT being led by them.

[catmandu57]

7. As long as casualty figures mount

and the economy goes down, so will the chimp's* poll numbers. This sociopath is toast.

[Brotherjohn]

8. I'm surprised so many here agree!

Might we be getting a bit optimistic?

Optimistic only in the sense of beginning to see the light at the end of the very dark tunnel we've been in. I do NOT revel in the things that have been happening to lower Bush's poll numbers (American deaths in Iraq, high unemployment, etc...). But they are beginning to show the country a truer picture of what this man's presidency brings.

The WMD/Niger/Wilson issues have destroyed the image of Bush as a trustworthy man in the same way thet Repubs had wished the Monica Lewinsky scandal would have destroyed Clinton's. Perhaps the American people are wiser (albeit a bit slow on the uptake) than we had given them credit for. It is a shame it has had to come to so much bloodshed and loss for people to begin to wake up.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. My Model Says 45% by Labor Day

It was heading the right direction before Georgie's Iraq adventure had folks waving their tattered little flags again.

So barring some new misadventure, i show 45% (+/- 2% by Labor Day).

Drip, Drip, Drip. Keep the pressure on folks.
The Professor

[Beetwasher]

10. Prof, do you think the killing of the sons will have any bounce effect?

Or mitigate the hemmorhaging in any way?

[diplomats]

12. And if you check the trend on www.pollkatz.com

he should be in the 40s in September, as you say.

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. The problem for Bu$hCo

Is that because of their secrecy, they can't really milk these stories properly.

They bend over backwards to let us know as little as possible about most of the 'bad guys', that when they finally catch one, everyone shrugs and says,"Who?"

Because of their brutal approach to dealing with problems, they don't even have a recognizable body to show off. Instead keeping so much of this stuff secret, they should have made public spectacles of some of the guys that they've caught, like Kalhid Shaiek Mohammad (sp?). People love a good crime story and this could have been bigger than OJ, if they had handled it right. Good things the powers that be are so stupid sometimes.