Let's Say Gephardt Wins Iowa

[Composed Thinker]

Let's say Gephardt wins Iowa, which, at the moment, could very well happen. That should give him a seven or eight-point bump in New Hampshire, but will that even matter? Isn't New Hampshire a race between Kerry and Dean, with Clark as a spoiler? If so, the race then turns to South Carolina and other states, where it seems Lieberman has been focusing his attention, something Clark will now do more and more.

I guess what I'm trying to ask is, how can Gephardt really win the nomination?

[UTUSN]

1. Well, Good for Him AND Us n/t

[quam]

2. South Carolina...

Then let's say Edwards takes South Carolina. Next?

[Composed Thinker]

3. Is he leading in SC?

[quam]

4. SC

According to this story, "the race is wide open in South Carolina, and Edwards has an edge, but not much of one."

[AntiCoup2K4]

5. Let's say Elvis and Jimi Hendrix are recording an album at JFK's place....

...in Switzerland...

Gephardt spent way too much time kissing Bush ass since the Coup. That's why he's not in charge of the House, and that's why he doesn't deserve the nomination. All of his experience doesn't mean shit if he forgets the definition of "opposition party" at the worst possible time in the history of this country that he could have done so.

[nuxvomica]

6. If Gephardt comes in third in NH, he'll have done very well

Once you adjust for the local appeal of Kerry and Dean, the third-place guy may be the one who gets the biggest lift out of NH.

[Composed Thinker]

7. That makes sense

[Dagaz]

8. Judy Woodruff cracked me up today

She was interviewing Bill Owens (CO Gov-R) and said that Gephart was the candidate most feared by the GOP. I'm thinking he's the most lame candidate seeing as how the House is a mess. Iowa and NH are two different animals so I agree that NH is between the two local sons while Gephart is the local Iowa son.

As for the Pres race, I may get slammed for this, but I wish Biden would have run.

[carpetbagger]

9. How Gephardt can win the nomination....

1. Gephardt wins Iowa.
2. Gephardt spends enormous energy in Michigan, ignoring the NH primary but placing fourth, ignoring SC but winning MO and doing well in AZ and OK (maybe second or close third), and picks up some union endorsements.
3. Gephardt wins Michigan in a three way race with Dean and Clark, as the media shifts to Kerry and Edwards' strong finish in South Carolina.
4. With the win in Michigan, he becomes the hot item. Dean or Clark stumble, and he's now running 2nd. March 2 is generally good to him, winning Ohio, running stronger than expected in New York and California. He gets an opening when Clark doesn't finish strong in the north, but Dean tanks outside of friendly bi-coastal territory.
5. The next week, Gephardt becomes the anti-Clark in the south, and picks off Clark in at least one state, running second in the others.
6. He wins Illinois. Now there's about an even three-way split with delegates, but Dean's stock drops fast without a major finish higher than third since March 2. Gephardt is now the angry candidate and the "democrat's democrat".
7. Gephardt consistantly picks up strength in April and May, winning a string of primaries in WI, PA, NC, WV, KY, and NJ, winning a good number of delegates.
8. He wins on a second ballot at the convention, although by then he's gotten close enough that he's already seen as the only person who could legitimately walk away with the nomination.

[Composed Thinker]

10. Dean and Clark are ahead in Michigan right now

[metisnation]

11. he does have a few things working for him

1.) He looks like a farm dog which the good ol boys will like
2.) He might be able to use the vote in the ramping up to the war on the basis that he was and continues to be lied to by the administration.
3.) Pro-Union

The first one is a decoy

:dem: