An Asteroid Is Maybe Gonna Visit Earth (Relatively) Soon

[Radio_Lady]

Will you be around then?

http://internationalreporter.com/news/read.php?id=784

In peace,

Radio_Lady

[Lex]

1. With specifics like that . . .

I can mostly say that I will probably be ready.

[Radio_Lady]

11. Further information on Apophis (name of asteroid).

http://www.space.com/news/051103_asteroid_apophis.html

This information is from November. Has this been previously discussed on the DU?

If so, I missed it.

In peace,

Radio_Lady

[Lex]

14. Thanks for the link, Radio_Lady.

I haven't seen it discussed before.

[The Stranger]

2. I will put that under the "good news" category.

But can we get it here any sooner?

[bryant69]

5. Good news for who?

Just out of curiousity.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[The Stranger]

7. Anyone currently enduring life (such as it is) on Planet Earth.

[bryant69]

9. So, in your opinion, we'd all be better off dead?

I'm not sure I'm following your argument.

[The Stranger]

16. Oh forget it.

There is no argument. I was being cynical.

[bryant69]

10. Dupe

Sorry

[SaveElmer]

3. This is gonna affect us eventually....

Better to spend the money now to deal with it than when it is an emergency...seems like this is a good candidate to try techniques on...

But as usual...things have to be in total crisis before shortsighted politicians will be willing to deal with it!

[Mabus]

19. making the aftermath of Katrina look like a day in the park

I agree. If we could only spend half the money that is spent on war on improving our global way of life nd looking out for our fellow man and the future generations.

[Walt Starr]

4. IF we began working now towards deflecting such an encounter

an entire global economy could be based upon it. Every nation in the world could achieve first worlkd status.

On top of that, the entire military industrial complex could be converted over to space technology and advance human understanding a thousand fold in the intervening time period.

Too bad, Homo sapiens, although it shows promise, is not yet evolved into an intelligent species.

[yknot]

15. I was thinking the same thing

A tremendous (pun) opportunity to unify mankind. Imagine the good works that would come from such an effort. Too bad we're a buncha ignorant fucksticks.

[Walt Starr]

20. Precisely

It could advance scientific understanding so swiftly and completely that the current era would be viewed in much the same was as we view the 1930's.

Again, too bad we're such ignorant fucksticks.

[yknot]

27. There's a great vignette in Einstein's Dreams

about a world where everyone knows they're shortly doomed, and there is nothing that can be done to stop it. The knowledge that time will soon run out for all has an equalizing effect; no one is better than another, for they all share the same fate. Ambition, bitterness, jealousy, anger, fear... melt away, and people stroll, reminisce, laugh, make love... everyone is the same, everyone is free.

So even the worst scenario with this asteroid might be the best thing to ever happen to us.

[htuttle]

21. I've always joked that it was the whole point of the opposable thumb

Can you think of a better reason for a biosphere to develop such a potentially catastrophic creature as humankind?

[global1]

6. Can't Be Any Worse Than The Hemorrhoid We Have In The WH. n/t

[no_hypocrisy]

8. Don't worry. Brownie's on the case.

[BlueJazz]

12. Being silly for moment..The Report says:

"However there are no shortage of ideas on how to deflect asteroids. The Advanced Concepts Team at the European Space Agency have led the effort in designing a range of satellites and rockets to nudge asteroids on a collision course for Earth into a different orbit".

Shoot ...just aim the Gas-Bags on Faux News and Rush in the Asteroid's general direction and they'll blow it to the nearest Galaxy ...

[Radio_Lady]

13. Comforting thought of the day:

Chances are I'll be dead by 2029 or 2036!

[Clarkie1]

17. relax a little....odds are 1 in 5560

99942 Apophis (previously better known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a Near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029. However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. A future impact on April 13, 2036, is still possible, keeping the asteroid at level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale as of September 2005, with an estimated impact-probability of 1 in 5,560.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_MN4

[htuttle]

24. Relax? I don't think so...

What ARE the odds in perspective? Slightly less than the odds of dying by electrocution, but greater than the odds of dying by drowing.

Here's a chart from CDC data about the odds of various ways of dying:

Cause of Death (Lifetime Odds))
Heart Disease (1-in-5)
Cancer (1-in-7)
Stroke (1-in-23)
Accidental Injury (1-in-36)
Motor Vehicle Accident* (1-in-100)
Intentional Self-harm (suicide) (1-in-121)
Falling Down (1-in-246)
Assault by Firearm (1-in-325)
Fire or Smoke (1-in-1,116)
Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.) (1-in-3,357)
Electrocution* (1-in-5,000)
Drowning (1-in-8,942)
Air Travel Accident* (1-in-20,000)
Flood* (included also in Natural Forces above) (1-in-30,000)
Legal Execution (1-in-58,618)
Tornado* (included also in Natural Forces above) (1-in-60,000)
Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above) (1-in-83,930)
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting* (1-in-100,000)
Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above) (1-in-131,890)
Dog Attack (1-in-147,717)
Asteroid Impact* (1-in-200,000**)
Tsunami* (1-in-500,000)
Fireworks Discharge (1-in-615,488 )

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/050106_odds_of_dying.html

Note that the odds of Earth getting hit by Apophis are quite a bit greater than death by drowning, tornados, or an airplane crash. We take steps to prevent each one of those -- it would be wise to do the same in the case of Aphophis. It will take at LEAST a decade (probably longer) to prepare for any sort of preventative action against an asteroid.

(and note: the odds of dying by Asteroid Impact in the chart above obviously don't take Apophis into account -- it's based on historical strikes).

[Clarkie1]

28. I did say "a little" n/t

[Crunchy Frog]

18. In the frame of mind I'm in right now

I'm beginning to think that might be about the best thing that could happen to us.

From the article, it doesn't look like it's big enough to cause mass extinctions. Might wake us up a little bit though, and encourage us to get our act together.

[Walt Starr]

22. It is potentially catastrophic, though

It could result in the deaths of over a billion people.

[johnnie]

23. That would suck n/t

[MsKandice01]

25. Well, the prophecy crowd..

Is hinging their bets on December 21, 2012 as the end of the world so this asteroid may be coming about 24 years too late. :p

[Radio_Lady]

29. Gee! December 21? That was my wedding anniversary with my ex...

What can I say? That nine year marriage seemed like the end of the world to me! :sarcasm:

[bullwinkle428]

26. I'm not worried...I know * has a plan, and a damn good one at that!

:sarcasm: :rofl:

[kliljedahl]

30. Well, with my current age & lifestyle

Maybe, but not likely, good luck.



Keith’s Barbeque Central

[depakid]

31. Threading the needle

I remember hearing about this last year about this time last year.

Objects with high Torino Impact Hazard Scale Ratings]

The current record for highest Torino rating is held by 99942 Apophis, a 400-metre near-Earth asteroid. On December 23, 2004, NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office announced that Apophis (then known only by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) was the first object to reach a level 2 on the Torino Scale, and it was subsequently upgraded to level 4. It is now expected to pass the Earth on April 13, 2029 quite closely but with no possibility of an impact.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale

However, the calculations are far from certain:

This thuing could still "thread the needle"

If it hits a gravitational "sweet spot" during a close approach to Earth in 2029, astronomers say it would hit the planet when it returns in 2035 or 2036. The likelihood that Apophis will thread the eye of this gravitational needle is probably vanishingly small, they add, but they haven't been able to calculate the asteroid's orbit with enough precision yet to know for sure.

A recent CSM article suggests one possibility to divert an impact might be to launch a space 'tractor'

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1114/p02s01-usgn.html

[newspeak]

32. the only thing that I would be disturbed about

is the Morlochs, like Cheney in his hidey hole, would survive. It gives me shivers thinking that this was the best the human race could offer. I remember seeing a movie, I can't remember the name, where a submarine is out in the ocean and a nuclear holocaust occurs. Some of the sailors want off in San Francisco to die with their family and others go back to Australia. This couple die together overlooking the ocean with a picnic and a poisoned bottle of wine. You know, with what we're dealing with now, I am not concerned.

[Kingshakabobo]

33. "On The Beach" with Greagory Peck. n/t